{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:07.069Z", "seo": { "title": "Turkmenistan exports to China: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Turkmenistan to China, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "TKM", "country_name": "Turkmenistan" }, "importer": { "iso3": "CHN", "country_name": "China" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "all_history_lane_count": 31, "current_lane_count": 10, "current_product_count": 10, "first_observed_last_year": 1996, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 8625115172.247942, "attention_trade_usd": 37337046.77524905, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 18028074.80018938, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 19047786.39676486, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 8609421441.196878, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 6, "high_volatility_lane_count": 6, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 6, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 6, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.32211934470500087, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 6.405882459748883, "product_concentration_hhi": 9907.968182867433, "top1_product_share_pct": 99.53846070870883, "top3_product_share_pct": 99.86835227139508, "top_product_hs6": "271121", "top_product_trade_usd": 8585306876.808902, "top_product_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: in gaseous state, natural gas", "top_attention_product_hs6": "280120", "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "distance_km": 4939.9873046875, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 16.751175387356323, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 16.751175387356323, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8.5, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 17734062.645370997, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 12556, "buyer_population_latest": 1412359.985, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 5.1812362915018895, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.16286575688667, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.01746865158438471, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 44.900000000000006, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 46.43, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 0.4328875154662774, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 17734062.645370997, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 12556, "buyer_population_2024": 1412359.985 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 5589996.859156713, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 2505598.095933666, "yoy_growth_pct": -55.177110845252756, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 3345234.3371310667, "yoy_growth_pct": 33.510411847775835, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 3261997.164003038, "yoy_growth_pct": -2.4882314582306497, "cagr_3y_pct": -16.435079357824733 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 2925587.519608491, "yoy_growth_pct": -10.312996225346605, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.301339269136451 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 4819317.746366002, "yoy_growth_pct": 64.7299119942559, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.941357916166885 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 3518328.7556674206, "yoy_growth_pct": -26.99529392266342, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.5536084957030303 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 2646507.6554621765, "yoy_growth_pct": -24.779409792245556, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.2865921424464983 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 5335719.189715621, "yoy_growth_pct": 101.61359362415334, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.451264006577137 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 12927739.772436365, "yoy_growth_pct": 142.28673422983076, "cagr_3y_pct": 54.31047017096966 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 16679901.150944622, "yoy_growth_pct": 29.02410974042311, "cagr_3y_pct": 84.71696006028789 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 13811003.525245357, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.199727982421486, "cagr_3y_pct": 37.302177108958915 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 44976349.59145808, "yoy_growth_pct": 225.65591276003283, "cagr_3y_pct": 51.52601465738363 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 25551570.717537545, "yoy_growth_pct": -43.18887382005252, "cagr_3y_pct": 15.276657818582851 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 34492945.01865742, "yoy_growth_pct": 34.99344286878963, "cagr_3y_pct": 35.67557787199449 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 922323919.1501683, "yoy_growth_pct": 2573.9494660466894, "cagr_3y_pct": 173.71572971653995 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 4148676552.883057, "yoy_growth_pct": 349.80689178110646, "cagr_3y_pct": 445.5450984591069 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 7682915355.501891, "yoy_growth_pct": 85.18954798157911, "cagr_3y_pct": 506.17579509336093 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 7881028024.121484, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.578613188517309, "cagr_3y_pct": 104.4402798359358 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 8447890489.217789, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.192747740032224, "cagr_3y_pct": 26.74949359435963 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 6988102515.975223, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.279911181444916, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.1102713395232295 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 4971984146.757283, "yoy_growth_pct": -28.850726854807462, "cagr_3y_pct": -14.233908083281843 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 5874383163.281219, "yoy_growth_pct": 18.14967606267366, "cagr_3y_pct": -11.405927667118842 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 5743258730.9241085, "yoy_growth_pct": -2.2321395917230036, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.330175904484692 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 8610026291.039433, "yoy_growth_pct": 49.9153476175372, "cagr_3y_pct": 20.08577930253532 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 7628031894.017229, "yoy_growth_pct": -11.405242723174702, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.097988480730933 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 6119968062.712788, "yoy_growth_pct": -19.77002524710518, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.1402519425885336 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 9208420620.459438, "yoy_growth_pct": 50.46517442735865, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.2649688419635883 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 8632511058.830421, "yoy_growth_pct": -6.254162199644209, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.209716493447524 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 8625565942.799673, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.08045302210929473, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.119068600459325 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "271121", "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: in gaseous state, natural gas", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 19120876970.054707, "current_below_peak_pct": 6.2407828067377675, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.318807727113698, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "280120", "hs_description": "Iodine", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 525694786.83386225, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.961709082551134, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "250300", "hs_description": "Sulphur of all kinds: other than sublimed, precipitated and colloidal sulphur", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 854450159.9640381, "current_below_peak_pct": 83.7523808993589, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0688586245101777, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "140420", "hs_description": "Vegetable products: cotton linters", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 38048857.21537754, "current_below_peak_pct": 82.65755144039588, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0882652218036508, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "130212", "hs_description": "Vegetable saps and extracts: of liquorice", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 34176254.04464773, "current_below_peak_pct": 86.35841742501347, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6057244587539293, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "520512", "hs_description": "Cotton yarn: (not sewing thread), single, of uncombed fibres, 85% or more by weight of cotton, less than 714.29 but not less than 232.56 decitex (exceeding 14 but not exceeding 43 metric number), not for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1536472666.9621851, "current_below_peak_pct": 92.47244557803074, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.9713610477854722, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "121190", "hs_description": "Plants and parts (including seeds and fruits) n.e.c. in heading no. 1211, of a kind used primarily in perfumery, in pharmacy or for insecticidal, fungicidal or similar purposes, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, whether or not cut, crushed or powdered", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 194872617.63110456, "current_below_peak_pct": 44.116537012679714, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0287674713095227, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "510220", "hs_description": "Hair: coarse animal hair, not carded or combed", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 18095240.621378332, "current_below_peak_pct": 59.302344639991645, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7860453887036791, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "280300", "hs_description": "Carbon: carbon blacks and other forms of carbon n.e.s.", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 519235979.0060973, "current_below_peak_pct": 28.007496808957992, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.096320147022966, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "510219", "hs_description": "Hair: fine animal hair, not carded or combed, other than of kashmir (cashmere) goats", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 95980144.03578082, "current_below_peak_pct": 68.81236110145854, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4981832097669685, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "TKM", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "distance_km": 5725, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 0, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 17734062.645370997, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 12556.33325336033, "importer_population": 1412359.985, "importer_biz_entry_days": 8.5, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1.1, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 45231.428571000004, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 7393.253337524292, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 16.751175387356323, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 16.751175387356323, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TKM-CHN/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TKM-CHN/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TKM-CHN/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TKM-CHN/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TKM-CHN/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }