{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:04.725Z", "seo": { "title": "Tajikistan exports to Kazakhstan: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Tajikistan to Kazakhstan, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "TJK", "country_name": "Tajikistan" }, "importer": { "iso3": "KAZ", "country_name": "Kazakhstan" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "all_history_lane_count": 121, "current_lane_count": 26, "current_product_count": 26, "first_observed_last_year": 1995, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 95550370.176876, "attention_trade_usd": 92153189.84338532, "critical_trade_usd": 65274457.75109795, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 61705905.999025, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 80574551.96507627, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 94426250.5489472, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 2, "high_attention_lane_count": 7, "high_volatility_lane_count": 19, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 16, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 22, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.0303873498128693, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 65.9407563547864, "product_concentration_hhi": 2535.6568520694345, "top1_product_share_pct": 34.83179819099496, "top3_product_share_pct": 80.3695444524172, "top_product_hs6": "260700", "top_product_trade_usd": 33281912.110758077, "top_product_description": "Lead ores and concentrates", "top_attention_product_hs6": "260700", "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "distance_km": 852.4202270507812, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.47678500413894653, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 5.344681641478929, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 8.811168753409962, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.23207419119731795, "tariff_advantage_pp": 8.579094562212644, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 5, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 190814.274226, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 10041, "buyer_population_latest": 19002.586, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 9.917422718979218, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 8.399650809013636, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.4001630989012082, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 27.696000000000005, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 36.538, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 96.44461834401892, "critical_trade_share_pct": 68.31418615152045, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 190814.274226, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 10041, "buyer_population_2024": 19002.586 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 11200972.686092867, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 16167157.219202198, "yoy_growth_pct": 44.3370827899201, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 5773574.869506246, "yoy_growth_pct": -64.28824937355834, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 3562306.9902883386, "yoy_growth_pct": -38.29980435339907, "cagr_3y_pct": -31.741217929826217 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 2388240.132735673, "yoy_growth_pct": -32.95804827471186, "cagr_3y_pct": -47.137449853385526 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 4091639.6913463715, "yoy_growth_pct": 71.32446755509024, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.843941541394386 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 1764994.4020704788, "yoy_growth_pct": -56.86339621244363, "cagr_3y_pct": -20.870698928798216 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 2782971.664740029, "yoy_growth_pct": 57.675948517195394, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.230975769833601 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 6775713.655312576, "yoy_growth_pct": 143.47045071138118, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.30939144327539 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 3194862.7624249225, "yoy_growth_pct": -52.84832085665319, "cagr_3y_pct": 21.87172503162904 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 15769538.736306155, "yoy_growth_pct": 393.5904891369096, "cagr_3y_pct": 78.28031875869374 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 25916394.830589607, "yoy_growth_pct": 64.34466006873352, "cagr_3y_pct": 56.38911229683254 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 23387623.540439688, "yoy_growth_pct": -9.757419219301145, "cagr_3y_pct": 94.16813641769792 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 8008623.030772247, "yoy_growth_pct": -65.7570038404095, "cagr_3y_pct": -20.2165239772514 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 13797006.220038444, "yoy_growth_pct": 72.27688414131836, "cagr_3y_pct": -18.95303477975896 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 12233290.198623052, "yoy_growth_pct": -11.333734264352858, "cagr_3y_pct": -19.427706164395964 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 73067879.87234609, "yoy_growth_pct": 497.28722760595036, "cagr_3y_pct": 108.95666015132517 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 133429429.99659306, "yoy_growth_pct": 82.6102389034719, "cagr_3y_pct": 113.05362286737241 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 148429340.7350895, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.241830785666584, "cagr_3y_pct": 129.78702021860133 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 188861020.65732723, "yoy_growth_pct": 27.23968167075437, "cagr_3y_pct": 37.23722950736441 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 174960433.86797804, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.360220092514835, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.45343745595384 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 200175749.3088377, "yoy_growth_pct": 14.412010123321185, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.483451922087283 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 314195718.4928592, "yoy_growth_pct": 56.959931249268216, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.49116698952704 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 298933852.79328614, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.857439106039219, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.54876230021474 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 156560227.81486794, "yoy_growth_pct": -47.62713344375557, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.86527853602318 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 119389949.6012788, "yoy_growth_pct": -23.741839630907347, "cagr_3y_pct": -27.569330079047006 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 345658961.3280813, "yoy_growth_pct": 189.52098772339116, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.960101099269454 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 477121482.0605558, "yoy_growth_pct": 38.03243527301385, "cagr_3y_pct": 44.98258607802843 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 254772153.22897518, "yoy_growth_pct": -46.60224642816654, "cagr_3y_pct": 28.744315602525305 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 107379407.48678169, "yoy_growth_pct": -57.85276917988953, "cagr_3y_pct": -32.27364112834247 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "260700", "hs_description": "Lead ores and concentrates", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 155699659.5591971, "current_below_peak_pct": 74.59793052651553, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.089354642939587, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "260800", "hs_description": "Zinc ores and concentrates", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 178659280.8718523, "current_below_peak_pct": 78.05668544734874, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.48553446360956776, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "220210", "hs_description": "Waters: including mineral and aerated, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter or flavoured", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 145052723.6438734, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7014142336047475, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "260300", "hs_description": "Copper ores and concentrates", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 92030686.83851539, "current_below_peak_pct": 97.59188836870703, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3571136877222367, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "081310", "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: apricots, dried", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10680102.617195852, "current_below_peak_pct": 64.17132281765623, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4016746004755032, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "080610", "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: grapes, fresh", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 29938990.57869376, "current_below_peak_pct": 74.71050574499853, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.9819078451484702, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "252210", "hs_description": "Quicklime: excluding calcium oxide and hydroxide of heading no. 2825", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14174332.673227843, "current_below_peak_pct": 37.813111277304245, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7397285038884711, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "070310", "hs_description": "Vegetables, alliaceous: onions and shallots, fresh or chilled", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 17401249.68184899, "current_below_peak_pct": 88.20054308499657, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0896936705742555, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "080910", "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: apricots, fresh", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11332149.713641224, "current_below_peak_pct": 71.88710394375583, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7198684109521818, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "630533", "hs_description": "Sacks and bags: of a kind used for the packing of goods, of man-made textile materials, of polyethylene or polypropylene strip or the like, not flexible intermediate bulk containers", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 38534989.27863744, "current_below_peak_pct": 58.19696081373633, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7128613497084988, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "distance_km": 861, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 1, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 190814.274226, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 10041.489838593548, "importer_population": 19002.586, "importer_biz_entry_days": 5, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.2, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 8746.270636000001, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 897.0879019449467, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 5.344681641478929, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 8.811168753409962, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.23207419119731795, "tariff_advantage_pp": 8.579094562212644 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TJK-KAZ/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TJK-KAZ/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TJK-KAZ/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TJK-KAZ/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TJK-KAZ/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }