{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:14.384Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Tajikistan exports to Germany: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Tajikistan to Germany, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "TJK",
    "country_name": "Tajikistan"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "DEU",
    "country_name": "Germany"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
    "importer_iso3": "DEU",
    "all_history_lane_count": 17,
    "current_lane_count": 3,
    "current_product_count": 3,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 1681781.3824951027,
    "attention_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 0,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 0,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 1337929.0835975953,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 0,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 0,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 0,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 1,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.851543889373252,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 27.948698701176507,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 6674.136667665636,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 79.55428080745158,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 100,
    "top_product_hs6": "121299",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 1337929.0835975953,
    "top_product_description": "Vegetable products (including unroasted chicory roots, chicorium intybus sativum variety): n.e.c. in chapter 12, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, ground or unground, primarily for human consumption",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "",
    "distance_km": 4910.89306640625,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.054999999701976776,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 2.387290147145594,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.8834974298850575,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 2.146770227010276,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.7367272028747816,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 4223116.205969,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 50802,
    "buyer_population_latest": 83129.288,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.422772294996279,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.3176380750794765,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.10175824948728263,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.237999999999996,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 27.802,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Stable",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 4223116.205969,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 50802,
    "buyer_population_2024": 83129.288
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 18760541.999427404,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 4488193.724521206,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -76.07641759679336,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 8363377.804130574,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 86.34172937851,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1785435.1749108527,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -78.65174554198607,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -54.34382034542588
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1298609.0453317573,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -27.26652507019207,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -33.85927621431295
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1927018.0336546781,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 48.390929555121076,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -38.69422960261425
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 7361370.516823834,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 282.00838748056015,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 60.35094743027949
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 5058617.9895191295,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -31.28157347931264,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 57.344350308555825
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 5819235.67066894,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 15.036076705648105,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 44.54177677645199
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 9372632.003636425,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 61.06293908799556,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.384612544747094
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 5150025.278862157,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -45.05251804547503,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.598728650543956
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 29940407.766753796,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 481.36428746557164,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 72.63569134736359
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 51345571.90661857,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 71.49256051092709,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 76.28437082660582
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 9302569.781322557,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -81.88243029361713,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.786137980522625
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2288645.1868709293,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -75.39771008795863,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -57.56017486093468
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 3121035.4082216523,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 36.37043549283319,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -60.68135282838498
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1866995.3829839372,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -40.1802562679755,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -41.45181508299658
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2580591.2012539203,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 38.22161665603447,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.083106999936703
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 3558284.3108069054,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 37.88640018139719,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.467367269669964
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2744852.667347359,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -22.860220612194027,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.70823841382447
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1631737.9137031569,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -40.55280514272274,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -14.169087282651095
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1269676.6914333922,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -22.188687241328033,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -29.07203487733302
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1518541.9327372222,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.60067810828876,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.90766975578284
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1434342.8309274912,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.5447334047575065,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.206908902518358
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1791562.7006411382,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 24.904776041768017,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.162140400794685
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2963887.773167207,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 65.43589415578556,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.971693612562195
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2447340.3550043735,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -17.428035664483055,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 19.49428495307972
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2186064.6483676974,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.675903991139357,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.858809066125127
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 3398826.2322297785,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 55.47693133264071,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.670042885191683
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2584581.392336246,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -23.956648097285992,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.8353625614925706
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "121299",
      "hs_description": "Vegetable products (including unroasted chicory roots, chicorium intybus sativum variety): n.e.c. in chapter 12, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, ground or unground, primarily for human consumption",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 92352114.38436371,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 33.19554289394198,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8777882391716162,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "081330",
      "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: apples, dried",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 43477008.3840995,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 3.251816280110083,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.781116256085826,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "999999",
      "hs_description": "Commodities not specified according to kind",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 26490358.674202494,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 47.70029277981795,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4521285389113925,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "limited_history"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "TJK",
    "importer_iso3": "DEU",
    "distance_km": 4470,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 4223116.205968999,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 50801.7848771783,
    "importer_population": 83129.288,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 8,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 6.5,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 8746.270636000001,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 897.0879019449467,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 2.387290147145594,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.8834974298850575,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 2.146770227010276,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.7367272028747816
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TJK-DEU/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TJK-DEU/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TJK-DEU/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TJK-DEU/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TJK-DEU/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}