{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:16.353Z", "seo": { "title": "Tajikistan exports to Belarus: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Tajikistan to Belarus, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "TJK", "country_name": "Tajikistan" }, "importer": { "iso3": "BLR", "country_name": "Belarus" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "all_history_lane_count": 16, "current_lane_count": 1, "current_product_count": 1, "first_observed_last_year": 1998, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 53420.27505208619, "attention_trade_usd": 0, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 0, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 53420.27505208619, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 0, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 0, "high_volatility_lane_count": 0, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 0, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.7957502625426722, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 63.543697847426394, "product_concentration_hhi": 10000, "top1_product_share_pct": 100, "top3_product_share_pct": 100, "top_product_hs6": "620342", "top_product_trade_usd": 53420.27505208619, "top_product_description": "Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: men's or boys', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)", "top_attention_product_hs6": "", "top_attention_product_reason": "", "distance_km": 3537.34033203125, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.47999998927116394, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 7.955960007049807, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.745829931417626, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.5722518823003832, "tariff_advantage_pp": 11.173578049117243, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8.5, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 68218.816484, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 7304, "buyer_population_latest": 9340.314, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.3542249002150193, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.9960922051038628, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.6172032922380555, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 32.812, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 30.426000000000005, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 0, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix" ], "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 68218.816484, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 7304, "buyer_population_2024": 9340.314 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 2411116.657624611, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 2584907.8338358058, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.207912386222337, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 3233257.2826545127, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.082110871883813, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 3162906.1911065634, "yoy_growth_pct": -2.175858133077202, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.46854926542795 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 3395471.4417699664, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.352897512968548, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.517874487360611 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 2389638.9853145, "yoy_growth_pct": -29.622762956626524, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.58704226849636 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1302273.2212165778, "yoy_growth_pct": -45.50334886484178, "cagr_3y_pct": -25.6058819341107 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1434522.3307150484, "yoy_growth_pct": 10.15525062973528, "cagr_3y_pct": -24.964103271085534 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1759460.5512875167, "yoy_growth_pct": 22.651318394639453, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.701109736572889 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 4413389.535339154, "yoy_growth_pct": 150.83765203542515, "cagr_3y_pct": 50.20695778719333 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 3194521.0950945644, "yoy_growth_pct": -27.617513262420967, "cagr_3y_pct": 30.58686094389378 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 4095847.008652934, "yoy_growth_pct": 28.214742890332634, "cagr_3y_pct": 32.5321970036045 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 5794702.5806538835, "yoy_growth_pct": 41.47751535669979, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.50138941322114 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 9111071.870793903, "yoy_growth_pct": 57.23105274137805, "cagr_3y_pct": 41.814695690168136 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 10354075.311302148, "yoy_growth_pct": 13.642779446101926, "cagr_3y_pct": 36.22470135047988 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 2807888.451697903, "yoy_growth_pct": -72.88132095549942, "cagr_3y_pct": -21.455417877359505 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 9123650.050612206, "yoy_growth_pct": 224.92922021511296, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.04599676896412941 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 5255618.7089934945, "yoy_growth_pct": -42.39565656465707, "cagr_3y_pct": -20.2303823978898 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 3778437.5180438156, "yoy_growth_pct": -28.1067039437603, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.402133147383207 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 3215151.801398282, "yoy_growth_pct": -14.907900791149242, "cagr_3y_pct": -29.366462948905603 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 2824805.159975514, "yoy_growth_pct": -12.14084639030123, "cagr_3y_pct": -18.694195894152433 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 2334543.4976993455, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.355592138624452, "cagr_3y_pct": -14.828053015577103 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 2821575.087637882, "yoy_growth_pct": 20.861962538650424, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.259275448861777 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 3473981.914489879, "yoy_growth_pct": 23.122079214208235, "cagr_3y_pct": 7.138694905253717 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 2480695.006667235, "yoy_growth_pct": -28.592172678840743, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.0447033317485097 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 2007985.8556443246, "yoy_growth_pct": -19.05551265884902, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.71955511281557 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 3569103.6929661464, "yoy_growth_pct": 77.74545985638375, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.904500641105277 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 5029205.8885103315, "yoy_growth_pct": 40.90949216246362, "cagr_3y_pct": 26.5635596330428 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 4207027.895553731, "yoy_growth_pct": -16.34806788950397, "cagr_3y_pct": 27.959219030561933 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1930568.130894937, "yoy_growth_pct": -54.110878776551715, "cagr_3y_pct": -18.52169438740048 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "hs_code": "620342", "hs_description": "Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: men's or boys', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 20833951.535164494, "current_below_peak_pct": 63.543697847426394, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7957502625426722, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "TJK", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "distance_km": 3541, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 1, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 0, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 68218.816484, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 7303.696265885707, "importer_population": 9340.314, "importer_biz_entry_days": 8.5, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.5, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 8746.270636000001, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 897.0879019449467, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 7.955960007049807, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.745829931417626, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.5722518823003832, "tariff_advantage_pp": 11.173578049117243 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TJK-BLR/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TJK-BLR/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TJK-BLR/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TJK-BLR/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TJK-BLR/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }