{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:10.566Z", "seo": { "title": "Thailand exports to Nepal: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Thailand to Nepal, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "THA", "country_name": "Thailand" }, "importer": { "iso3": "NPL", "country_name": "Nepal" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "all_history_lane_count": 63, "current_lane_count": 35, "current_product_count": 35, "first_observed_last_year": 1995, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 15307541.18473607, "attention_trade_usd": 7175342.506114382, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 6180711.800375436, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 5219928.104850922, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 15217618.269430425, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 4, "high_volatility_lane_count": 15, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 20, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 33, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.0928344916791168, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 41.746447950112014, "product_concentration_hhi": 804.3671331306931, "top1_product_share_pct": 13.74796316711023, "top3_product_share_pct": 39.69567061573787, "top_product_hs6": "230990", "top_product_trade_usd": 2104475.1238677436, "top_product_description": "Dog or cat food: (not put up for retail sale), used in animal feeding", "top_attention_product_hs6": "230990", "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "distance_km": 2212.50927734375, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 17.188381769090913, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 17.188381769090913, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 22.5, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 36288.830373000004, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 1223, "buyer_population_latest": 29674.919, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 4.652648953830973, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.7645171101378105, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.8559109302753942, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 33.006, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 10.022, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 46.874559535853365, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 36288.830373000004, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 1223, "buyer_population_2024": 29674.919 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 112420161.4014372, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 30964883.804092668, "yoy_growth_pct": -72.4561115923671, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 25074303.0917454, "yoy_growth_pct": -19.023422628082663, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 19908355.377574515, "yoy_growth_pct": -20.60255750785569, "cagr_3y_pct": -43.843884314924 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 19291494.25303495, "yoy_growth_pct": -3.0985036827020918, "cagr_3y_pct": -14.59195038085943 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 30617428.976025384, "yoy_growth_pct": 58.70947358683027, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.884143792316477 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 27942559.680022955, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.736426883187853, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.963620668905728 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 28159490.301833928, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.7763448456229449, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.436540668610064 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 35028446.3867265, "yoy_growth_pct": 24.393041249206206, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.588528351088561 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 43807943.525022574, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.063906749866405, "cagr_3y_pct": 16.170420081352276 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 37301113.223136246, "yoy_growth_pct": -14.853083204350149, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.824440943056988 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 33252373.81403548, "yoy_growth_pct": -10.85420530181258, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.7195221230869695 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 31698355.079498716, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.6734069069102935, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.223786025200853 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 40384694.896357656, "yoy_growth_pct": 27.403124846932304, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.682950128353756 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 78723509.11695214, "yoy_growth_pct": 94.93401972947011, "cagr_3y_pct": 33.2786536210975 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 80124387.75906989, "yoy_growth_pct": 1.779492121008741, "cagr_3y_pct": 36.22056147110446 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 79304192.21330401, "yoy_growth_pct": -1.0236528087205654, "cagr_3y_pct": 25.225597688809962 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 71262983.46279527, "yoy_growth_pct": -10.139701983068372, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.264357928573469 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 67319604.64512989, "yoy_growth_pct": -5.533558414270057, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.639055868681398 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 69363009.56584316, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.035378670871469, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.366380258176161 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 66251622.0063221, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.485658247812275, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.401268830764791 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 85899527.0785569, "yoy_growth_pct": 29.656489120160522, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.463364505854077 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 82590204.56776763, "yoy_growth_pct": -3.8525503263397654, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.990482980982459 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 98906399.22781865, "yoy_growth_pct": 19.755605093171937, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.29027875794413 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 91272474.87469348, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.718332092488145, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.042952971112366 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 52026301.38515498, "yoy_growth_pct": -42.998914561502744, "cagr_3y_pct": -14.27684693183766 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 72592528.85679632, "yoy_growth_pct": 39.530443110664116, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.796682249867583 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 65433070.05443608, "yoy_growth_pct": -9.86252843799359, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.500799262003103 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 55999827.088493206, "yoy_growth_pct": -14.416629019691463, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.4836484091547373 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 55894223.14694166, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.18857904933289316, "cagr_3y_pct": -8.344541802872008 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "230990", "hs_description": "Dog or cat food: (not put up for retail sale), used in animal feeding", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 33649926.11602695, "current_below_peak_pct": 19.885765869381746, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2567112674605974, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "870421", "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), for transport of goods, (of a gvw not exceeding 5 tonnes), n.e.c. in item no 8704.1", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 15619522.20586894, "current_below_peak_pct": 64.16339994579647, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.994851715020837, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "330499", "hs_description": "Cosmetic and toilet preparations: n.e.c. in heading no. 3304, for the care of the skin (excluding medicaments, including sunscreen or sun tan preparations)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 33496139.563463934, "current_below_peak_pct": 32.99539866611371, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7867989704116556, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "210690", "hs_description": "Food preparations: n.e.s. in item no. 2106.10", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 65894948.991431154, "current_below_peak_pct": 42.2566127252607, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9339584438267602, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "550320", "hs_description": "Fibres: synthetic staple fibres, of polyesters, not carded, combed or otherwise processed for spinning", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 45294265.04428544, "current_below_peak_pct": 85.01692957849836, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5965543657435926, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "401110", "hs_description": "Rubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on motor cars (including station wagons and racing cars)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13230101.898392184, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9898679237048021, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "841510", "hs_description": "Air conditioning machines: comprising a motor-driven fan and elements for changing the temperature and humidity, window or wall types, self-contained or split-system", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 20956544.732861567, "current_below_peak_pct": 22.961187112382277, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1431911373555586, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "390120", "hs_description": "Ethylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific gravity of 0.94 or more", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 49675029.21021098, "current_below_peak_pct": 45.56360665652118, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4971094546157998, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "710812", "hs_description": "Metals: gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 190638370.79730448, "current_below_peak_pct": 24.21389019878866, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3093232274349729, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "870899", "hs_description": "Vehicle parts and accessories: n.e.c. in heading no. 8708", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 33209782.56773717, "current_below_peak_pct": 1.0932299683577404, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7683435136805755, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "THA", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "distance_km": 2210, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 36288.830373000004, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 1222.8788349177971, "importer_population": 29674.919, "importer_biz_entry_days": 22.5, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 20.2, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 505981.655622, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 7233.388858353161, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 17.188381769090913, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 17.188381769090913, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/THA-NPL/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/THA-NPL/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/THA-NPL/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/THA-NPL/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/THA-NPL/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }