{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:08.233Z", "seo": { "title": "Serbia exports to Tajikistan: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Serbia to Tajikistan, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "SRB", "country_name": "Serbia" }, "importer": { "iso3": "TJK", "country_name": "Tajikistan" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "all_history_lane_count": 3, "current_lane_count": 1, "current_product_count": 1, "first_observed_last_year": 2017, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 288458.9639728154, "attention_trade_usd": 0, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 0, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 288458.9639728154, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 288458.9639728154, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 0, "high_volatility_lane_count": 0, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 1, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.852061039838955, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 50.917541613195695, "product_concentration_hhi": 10000, "top1_product_share_pct": 100, "top3_product_share_pct": 100, "top_product_hs6": "730890", "top_product_trade_usd": 288458.9639728154, "top_product_description": "Iron or steel: structures and parts thereof, n.e.s. in heading no. 7308", "top_attention_product_hs6": "", "top_attention_product_reason": "", "distance_km": null, "shares_land_border": null, "shares_official_language": null, "common_spoken_language_score": null, "has_reported_fta": null, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 8.209730876296296, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 8.209730876296296, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": null, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": null, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": null, "buyer_population_latest": null, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 11.342641385471342, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 9.016690878247392, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 2.133572839613729, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": null, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": null, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 0, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": null, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": null, "buyer_population_2024": null }, "history": [ { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 61289.99346309512, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 4056613, "yoy_growth_pct": 6518.719909707008, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 1062734, "yoy_growth_pct": -73.8024307470296, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 1447.9999999999918, "yoy_growth_pct": -99.86374765463418, "cagr_3y_pct": -71.30587435771946 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 895613.1073254363, "yoy_growth_pct": 61751.733931315015, "cagr_3y_pct": -39.56076561604066 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 2352982.9891138934, "yoy_growth_pct": 162.7231524268991, "cagr_3y_pct": 30.33610474574939 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 3735612.2046105545, "yoy_growth_pct": 58.76069745907273, "cagr_3y_pct": 1271.5060927681131 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 3263727.0446387054, "yoy_growth_pct": -12.632070304017118, "cagr_3y_pct": 53.885534188890105 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 3284611.1959499586, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.6398865783080465, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.760514856387715 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 2635907.920533299, "yoy_growth_pct": -19.749773617545163, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.972779106162744 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 5756921.403486425, "yoy_growth_pct": 118.4037370441104, "cagr_3y_pct": 20.825561855980723 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 8446399.489337485, "yoy_growth_pct": 46.71729727319705, "cagr_3y_pct": 37.00272849968913 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 4495108.10999651, "yoy_growth_pct": -46.780777825261325, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.473054917250465 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 1028149.6038581294, "yoy_growth_pct": -77.12736649043737, "cagr_3y_pct": -43.6852702795713 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 1709063.723395313, "yoy_growth_pct": 66.22714408312318, "cagr_3y_pct": -41.29223517445414 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 1030999.9573367815, "yoy_growth_pct": -39.674574843321544, "cagr_3y_pct": -38.78758668231068 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 1353094.9305954168, "yoy_growth_pct": 31.2410268270672, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.586566007970433 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 4686235.758446542, "yoy_growth_pct": 246.3345883931741, "cagr_3y_pct": 39.96580916659167 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 4331963.916866221, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.559838212189285, "cagr_3y_pct": 61.36477164905432 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "hs_code": "730890", "hs_description": "Iron or steel: structures and parts thereof, n.e.s. in heading no. 7308", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 23699066.80957709, "current_below_peak_pct": 50.917541613195695, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.852061039838955, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "SRB", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "distance_km": 4023, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": null, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 0, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 8746.270636000001, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 897.0879019449467, "importer_population": 9749.625, "importer_biz_entry_days": 7, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 17.5, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 63068.134601000005, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 9214.993546391494, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 8.209730876296296, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 8.209730876296296, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/SRB-TJK/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/SRB-TJK/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/SRB-TJK/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/SRB-TJK/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/SRB-TJK/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }