{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:53.983Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Serbia exports to Bulgaria: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Serbia to Bulgaria, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "SRB",
    "country_name": "Serbia"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "BGR",
    "country_name": "Bulgaria"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
    "importer_iso3": "BGR",
    "all_history_lane_count": 473,
    "current_lane_count": 405,
    "current_product_count": 405,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2006,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 995449282.5373266,
    "attention_trade_usd": 550439105.3510666,
    "critical_trade_usd": 16058214.209973495,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 554016524.5396949,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 162388240.6800616,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 567655392.8996569,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 1,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 33,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 205,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 133,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 107,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.0358169046602084,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 18.79024541742906,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 465.07643217123365,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 15.45941699903465,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 30.98060660381039,
    "top_product_hs6": "740311",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 153890655.60134393,
    "top_product_description": "Copper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodes",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "740311",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": null,
    "shares_land_border": null,
    "shares_official_language": null,
    "common_spoken_language_score": null,
    "has_reported_fta": null,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 3.2662698900000002,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 10.542212544444443,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.8487962917777776,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 9.693416252666665,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": null,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": null,
    "buyer_population_latest": null,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 10.593931268104285,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 11.189451881330982,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.5355909244541324,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 25.716,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 23.028,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 55.29554493705978,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 1.6131624676088263,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": null,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": null,
    "buyer_population_2024": null
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 173159445.92258695,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 226867454.26208216,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 31.016505079085334,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 263396098.32743165,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.101315274226515,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 201544339.3759229,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -23.48241274045749,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.19008494632438
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 259151407.4325052,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 28.582826109113846,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.53469538027349
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 340148485.8573932,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 31.25473221517554,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.89795767444792
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 306087655.67614454,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.013518095014728,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.945437265853712
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 347203807.0379214,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.432802858694748,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.241124758269127
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 393788536.2339062,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.41711359486817,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.002146125983398
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 398577771.71415603,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.216194744025012,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.199945071350356
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 437476335.09716564,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.759340872352041,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.008191823479848
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 695472049.0975993,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 58.97363886966171,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.875663357178276
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 738844800.3739164,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.2364477957949305,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.84195385880745
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 688385222.4017446,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.829523324334841,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.312303786753812
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 677083565.4476846,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.641763446726674,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.8892268533934322
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 883270465.6756946,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 30.452208671123195,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.132117513537816
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 964603607.7889085,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.208180877076511,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.902326138336083
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 1109865231.6018162,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 15.059203867781545,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.907833106778128
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 1118626131.5027206,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.7893661006264985,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.192481980429989
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "740311",
      "hs_description": "Copper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodes",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 230616030.4649528,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1504998756274452,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "271600",
      "hs_description": "Electrical energy",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 958726149.2590412,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 17.96897858209571,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.209897001028515,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "260300",
      "hs_description": "Copper ores and concentrates",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2228787425.0549655,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 73.42563970335732,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.619007534983629,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "720449",
      "hs_description": "Ferrous waste and scrap: n.e.s. in heading no. 7204",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 45912480.62847717,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4587998545014851,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "740400",
      "hs_description": "Copper: waste and scrap",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 552206842.7742355,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 15.47636765363003,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5977217666254522,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "271019",
      "hs_description": "",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 770571072.7794034,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 19.154076543745827,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.650987236110333,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "210500",
      "hs_description": "Ice cream and other edible ice: whether or not containing cocoa",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 52363841.426019795,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0656750163485278,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "780110",
      "hs_description": "Lead: unwrought, refined",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 49722213.16088872,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 9.290186224554656,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7446340242691261,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "120600",
      "hs_description": "Oil seeds: sunflower seeds, whether or not broken",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 430408071.3522545,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.9804838135827678,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "271012",
      "hs_description": "",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 223789392.85676157,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 31.001063311458555,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8916073850015632,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "SRB",
    "importer_iso3": "BGR",
    "distance_km": 329,
    "shares_land_border": 1,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": null,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 2,
    "exporter_is_wto": 0,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 80271.119426,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 11634.971018208831,
    "importer_population": 6899.125,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 23,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 63068.134601000005,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 9214.993546391494,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 3.2662698900000002,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 10.542212544444443,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.8487962917777776,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 9.693416252666665
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/SRB-BGR/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/SRB-BGR/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/SRB-BGR/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/SRB-BGR/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/SRB-BGR/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}