{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:00.613Z", "seo": { "title": "Saudi Arabia exports to Malawi: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Saudi Arabia to Malawi, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "SAU", "country_name": "Saudi Arabia" }, "importer": { "iso3": "MWI", "country_name": "Malawi" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "all_history_lane_count": 7, "current_lane_count": 5, "current_product_count": 5, "first_observed_last_year": 2016, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 8124315.116065835, "attention_trade_usd": 8094326.85375535, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 2731481.482371525, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 2701493.220061041, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 8124315.116065835, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 8124315.116065835, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 4, "high_volatility_lane_count": 2, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 5, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.8702650884928567, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 30.683053386185755, "product_concentration_hhi": 2593.2663504665625, "top1_product_share_pct": 33.25195024401303, "top3_product_share_pct": 81.0108355023644, "top_product_hs6": "310210", "top_product_trade_usd": 2701493.220061041, "top_product_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solution", "top_attention_product_hs6": "310210", "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "distance_km": 4522.32421875, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 24.516091226666664, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 24.516091226666664, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 37, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 12626.718073999999, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 643, "buyer_population_latest": 19647.68, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 0.4742394112035031, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -2.0937742938528903, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 2.622931980611698, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 16.302, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 4.328, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend weakened", "attention_trade_share_pct": 99.63088258047522, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "buyer_macro_weakness" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 12626.718073999999, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 643, "buyer_population_2024": 19647.68 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 2381495.20334697, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 3190257.9585339758, "yoy_growth_pct": 33.960293266615224, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 3784126.8580316748, "yoy_growth_pct": 18.61507461831082, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 7523077.062075935, "yoy_growth_pct": 98.80615381877253, "cagr_3y_pct": 46.728766457618235 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 297424.4999853447, "yoy_growth_pct": -96.04650467446797, "cagr_3y_pct": -54.656297434479974 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 1684314.6466162894, "yoy_growth_pct": 466.299900209728, "cagr_3y_pct": -23.648217699315378 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 2532040.0837846585, "yoy_growth_pct": 50.330586323132124, "cagr_3y_pct": -30.440195081078457 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 20128065.401309248, "yoy_growth_pct": 694.9347062161704, "cagr_3y_pct": 307.51327893945694 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 17873808.412317276, "yoy_growth_pct": -11.199571066801795, "cagr_3y_pct": 119.75121809430011 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 2973953.858628562, "yoy_growth_pct": -83.36138672842024, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.508605535063893 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 2403350.589051359, "yoy_growth_pct": -19.18668872153708, "cagr_3y_pct": -50.7576960599097 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 1793366.1836290658, "yoy_growth_pct": -25.38058359862777, "cagr_3y_pct": -53.532358944596716 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 1849684.218981835, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.1403533682565543, "cagr_3y_pct": -14.639990437849114 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 2541868.846776028, "yoy_growth_pct": 37.42177289998227, "cagr_3y_pct": 1.8854113997743172 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 3030991.882888845, "yoy_growth_pct": 19.242654345962617, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.116502272494728 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 4208250.355489498, "yoy_growth_pct": 38.84070027527111, "cagr_3y_pct": 31.5228847366815 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 10327881.979684941, "yoy_growth_pct": 145.4198564068942, "cagr_3y_pct": 59.57053801899743 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 30430540.937216442, "yoy_growth_pct": 194.6445456781328, "cagr_3y_pct": 115.72888545332964 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 9376925.428938836, "yoy_growth_pct": -69.18580761253938, "cagr_3y_pct": 30.612967852548856 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 5021921.386147398, "yoy_growth_pct": -46.4438378634337, "cagr_3y_pct": -21.364337901118656 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 6038054.532019055, "yoy_growth_pct": 20.23395166389077, "cagr_3y_pct": -41.67396517388522 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 7622680.58715825, "yoy_growth_pct": 26.24398383181401, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.671184651810136 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 8507719.0506349, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.610593587873197, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.21047267099787 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 16175044.390287425, "yoy_growth_pct": 90.12198562293075, "cagr_3y_pct": 38.883126097754996 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 18120235.720658615, "yoy_growth_pct": 12.025879394428207, "cagr_3y_pct": 33.46028266882208 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 18496326.346947808, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.075528332451082, "cagr_3y_pct": 29.546031445913457 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 19573093.471439023, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.821518848086815, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.56256435701017 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 10286310.471742406, "yoy_growth_pct": -47.446679868196874, "cagr_3y_pct": -17.199696531771114 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 43587929.97625561, "yoy_growth_pct": 323.74697998856163, "cagr_3y_pct": 33.0741155370295 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 17300675.864027288, "yoy_growth_pct": -60.30856277540187, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.0302125073316315 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "hs_code": "310210", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solution", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 36158063.60938076, "current_below_peak_pct": 74.0896400580498, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.230215171801217, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "hs_code": "390110", "hs_description": "Ethylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific gravity of less than 0.94", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11664911.774815626, "current_below_peak_pct": 24.934184172742686, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6511940545244177, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "hs_code": "390210", "hs_description": "Propylene, other olefin polymers: polypropylene in primary forms", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 18753820.912665013, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7878685139311339, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "hs_code": "390120", "hs_description": "Ethylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific gravity of 0.94 or more", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12162684.184194893, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5816757067983347, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "hs_code": "961900", "hs_description": "Sanitary towels (pads) and tampons, napkins and napkin liners for babies and similar articles, of any material", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12346796.208755337, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.642531015739431, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "SAU", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "distance_km": 4501, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 12626.718073999999, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 642.6569485048616, "importer_population": 19647.68, "importer_biz_entry_days": 37, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 32.6, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 833541.2365690001, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 23585.886297459085, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 24.516091226666664, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 24.516091226666664, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/SAU-MWI/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/SAU-MWI/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/SAU-MWI/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/SAU-MWI/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/SAU-MWI/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }