{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:02.997Z", "seo": { "title": "Russia exports to South Africa: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Russia to South Africa, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "RUS", "country_name": "Russia" }, "importer": { "iso3": "ZAF", "country_name": "South Africa" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "all_history_lane_count": 122, "current_lane_count": 43, "current_product_count": 43, "first_observed_last_year": 2000, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 551222940.3287758, "attention_trade_usd": 548134684.484, "critical_trade_usd": 41724168.155, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 365571319.3277758, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 60430553.74259221, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 332872076.931, "access_friction_trade_usd": 551222940.3287758, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 551222940.3287758, "critical_lane_count": 2, "high_attention_lane_count": 19, "high_volatility_lane_count": 32, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 18, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 19, "access_friction_lane_count": 43, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.1666407620837744, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 19.031419923974465, "product_concentration_hhi": 1966.695723330187, "top1_product_share_pct": 31.134281353500644, "top3_product_share_pct": 68.46501350395607, "top_product_hs6": "100199", "top_product_trade_usd": 171619301.127, "top_product_description": "Cereals: wheat and meslin, other than durum wheat, other than seed", "top_attention_product_hs6": "100199", "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened", "distance_km": 10147.89453125, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.014499999582767487, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 9.672384831034481, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 9.672384831034481, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 40, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 419946.428126, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 6994, "buyer_population_latest": 60041.996, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 0.5997022185294298, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -0.829491262325488, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.4411476748953822, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.936, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 19.216, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend weakened", "attention_trade_share_pct": 99.43974468063071, "critical_trade_share_pct": 7.56938166073308, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "market_access_friction", "buyer_macro_weakness" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 419946.428126, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 6994, "buyer_population_2024": 60041.996 }, "history": [ { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 49391998.924036264, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 24459080.095559504, "yoy_growth_pct": -50.47967154927867, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 67714779.76718068, "yoy_growth_pct": 176.84924985986763, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 24268087.117252167, "yoy_growth_pct": -64.16131426449063, "cagr_3y_pct": -21.091040966940454 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 27021696.17305693, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.34662588979758, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.377056569216741 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 60544886.36837214, "yoy_growth_pct": 124.06027356913611, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.6619171791357874 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 161636524.46536693, "yoy_growth_pct": 166.9697379262136, "cagr_3y_pct": 88.14874223732009 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 269754524.142079, "yoy_growth_pct": 66.88958453810233, "cagr_3y_pct": 115.32049862487534 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 221917970.399257, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.73336476745302, "cagr_3y_pct": 54.183654230714986 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 322792160.29717183, "yoy_growth_pct": 45.45562025302867, "cagr_3y_pct": 25.929600305862554 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 78895314.31050567, "yoy_growth_pct": -75.5584787939483, "cagr_3y_pct": -33.621491279229076 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 152110966.84201694, "yoy_growth_pct": 92.80101508102096, "cagr_3y_pct": -11.829625591457448 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 237505997.20971078, "yoy_growth_pct": 56.13995633620912, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.721597125004266 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 349886261.2949812, "yoy_growth_pct": 47.31681111447554, "cagr_3y_pct": 64.29533276263226 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 396581593.3527447, "yoy_growth_pct": 13.345860419022216, "cagr_3y_pct": 37.633453977363196 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 425380388.3163078, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.261757844103367, "cagr_3y_pct": 21.44164116794023 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 235800751.77854323, "yoy_growth_pct": -44.567084366098086, "cagr_3y_pct": -12.325607519990411 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 311446863.8704372, "yoy_growth_pct": 32.08052201756271, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.739216958972883 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 390037028.1640898, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.2338916876512, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.850002941507379 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 414135588.0256589, "yoy_growth_pct": 6.178531298682444, "cagr_3y_pct": 20.65142500410351 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 423645390.548751, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.296301693952185, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.799935554299566 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 504269611.13499874, "yoy_growth_pct": 19.031062861752048, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.939569006581504 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 548276425.8185145, "yoy_growth_pct": 8.72684248897453, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.804213826663876 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 529551945.0452575, "yoy_growth_pct": -3.4151533590566885, "cagr_3y_pct": 7.721409495824605 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 558876364.9143962, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.537590814935545, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.4866469079467333 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "100199", "hs_description": "Cereals: wheat and meslin, other than durum wheat, other than seed", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 524385352.48778003, "current_below_peak_pct": 24.32231631414811, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6671357118752834, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "310540", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: ammonium dihydrogenorthophosphate (monoammonium phosphate) and mixtures thereof with diammonium hydrogenorthophosphate (diammonium phosphate)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 202566187.3702064, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2114506630625663, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "310420", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: potassic, potassium chloride", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 130638514.4636464, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3232582914148667, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "310210", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solution", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 292498366.24060667, "current_below_peak_pct": 38.247270079928484, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0827591514070263, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "271012", "hs_description": "", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11192877591.131302, "current_below_peak_pct": 53.227369037166426, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.493645904523401, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "270119", "hs_description": "Coal: (other than anthracite and bituminous), whether or not pulverised but not agglomerated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 164282468.43717936, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.6457303362132514, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "310260", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, double salts and mixtures of calcium nitrate and ammonium nitrate", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 35559655.50779811, "current_below_peak_pct": 45.88551750517858, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3375815165082747, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "270111", "hs_description": "Coal: anthracite, whether or not pulverised, but not agglomerated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 54458869.64781366, "current_below_peak_pct": 80.92130371625177, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3250060352911783, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "310240", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: ammonium nitrate with calcium carbonate or other inorganic non-fertilizing substances, mixtures thereof", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 21703478.57444422, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2206318163730618, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "310221", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, ammonium sulphate", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 74187188.76945612, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.278082733980729, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "distance_km": 9126, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662, "importer_population": 60041.996, "importer_biz_entry_days": 40, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.2, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 1775799.919353, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 12379.565666376617, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 9.672384831034481, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 9.672384831034481, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/RUS-ZAF/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/RUS-ZAF/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/RUS-ZAF/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/RUS-ZAF/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/RUS-ZAF/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }