{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:02.992Z", "seo": { "title": "Russia exports to Poland: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Russia to Poland, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "RUS", "country_name": "Russia" }, "importer": { "iso3": "POL", "country_name": "Poland" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "all_history_lane_count": 370, "current_lane_count": 139, "current_product_count": 139, "first_observed_last_year": 1995, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 1746222697.8613572, "attention_trade_usd": 1012050304.7907983, "critical_trade_usd": 62402000.789327174, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 718379432.036995, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 547029224.1099237, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 979205935.5581398, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 3, "high_attention_lane_count": 23, "high_volatility_lane_count": 87, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 83, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 51, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.0196286051892938, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 38.743083288400086, "product_concentration_hhi": 715.9237620012161, "top1_product_share_pct": 18.835853796964493, "top3_product_share_pct": 36.72555668688794, "top_product_hs6": "271119", "top_product_trade_usd": 328915954.33857423, "top_product_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, n.e.c. in heading no. 2711", "top_attention_product_hs6": "271119", "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "distance_km": 1156.4268798828125, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.27213600277900696, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 14.940361988505746, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 14.940361988505746, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 37, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 674048.2663969999, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 17841, "buyer_population_latest": 37781.025, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 8.774876361756622, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 9.599090635201723, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.7520265621440814, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.94, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 22.524, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 57.95654277259605, "critical_trade_share_pct": 3.573541958064826, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 674048.2663969999, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 17841, "buyer_population_2024": 37781.025 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 2109782037.1326642, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 2400032957.8868833, "yoy_growth_pct": 13.757388945669934, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 2568503049.7537475, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.019490766293246, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 2697934868.33429, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.0391927154983085, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.542034298047053 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 2596097516.4480643, "yoy_growth_pct": -3.7746408588840485, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.6521221433809083 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 4674335227.579173, "yoy_growth_pct": 80.05237468793227, "cagr_3y_pct": 22.0899520573119 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 4660557596.883335, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.2947505907267445, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.987353058805944 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 4268396017.800041, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.414477687080723, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.026963685776053 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 5279963398.946768, "yoy_growth_pct": 23.699004893835852, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.14466297692242 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 6235008811.06955, "yoy_growth_pct": 18.08810667727907, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.187686320639266 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 8435712148.646279, "yoy_growth_pct": 35.29591383527206, "cagr_3y_pct": 25.49285949118689 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 11436514824.61447, "yoy_growth_pct": 35.57260635605903, "cagr_3y_pct": 29.386091861810737 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 12418263360.474108, "yoy_growth_pct": 8.584333172433345, "cagr_3y_pct": 25.817561796634124 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 17642630872.721794, "yoy_growth_pct": 42.070033148727084, "cagr_3y_pct": 27.883309024754467 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 11422237001.734543, "yoy_growth_pct": -35.257745377447826, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.04163205574507778 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 16642410284.771618, "yoy_growth_pct": 45.70184703963294, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.251655528317238 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 24335791847.07634, "yoy_growth_pct": 46.2275681867093, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.316799532058486 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 24716261093.04915, "yoy_growth_pct": 1.5634142844565657, "cagr_3y_pct": 29.343279723186775 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 22242306774.850086, "yoy_growth_pct": -10.009419745508364, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.150853679234139 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 22885226836.877228, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.8905278060192385, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.0277129029656615 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 12127086819.00677, "yoy_growth_pct": -47.009103709362435, "cagr_3y_pct": -21.127688137502176 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 9714643066.492754, "yoy_growth_pct": -19.893019556296032, "cagr_3y_pct": -24.12785877370771 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 12644855602.26692, "yoy_growth_pct": 30.162842996063375, "cagr_3y_pct": -17.94226013281588 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 17347062720.00519, "yoy_growth_pct": 37.18672055768892, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.673855145914658 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 14015125860.467272, "yoy_growth_pct": -19.20749877554442, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.994347320697198 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 10383923844.553478, "yoy_growth_pct": -25.909164513152128, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.355442885831053 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 18488446203.695587, "yoy_growth_pct": 78.04874612397172, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.1468131482735187 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 16004318601.901075, "yoy_growth_pct": -13.436108012678583, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.5233680181751 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 2933599656.976122, "yoy_growth_pct": -81.6699496557907, "cagr_3y_pct": -34.38349154297027 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "export_value_usd": 1790875785.2265177, "yoy_growth_pct": -38.95295900489347, "cagr_3y_pct": -54.07438118864633 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "hs_code": "271119", "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, n.e.c. in heading no. 2711", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 439377013.6990192, "current_below_peak_pct": 37.83137839696123, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7737201221983881, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "hs_code": "310210", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solution", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 397292686.01761734, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0305244123143311, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "hs_code": "271112", "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, propane", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 827560958.5292577, "current_below_peak_pct": 82.67437328125074, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8076210029989981, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "hs_code": "310520", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: containing the three fertilizing elements nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 278996214.15780467, "current_below_peak_pct": 16.490188606143736, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9539909716321542, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "hs_code": "760120", "hs_description": "Aluminium: unwrought, alloys", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1590228329.5407147, "current_below_peak_pct": 27.47781405708588, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2382262564981728, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "hs_code": "030363", "hs_description": "Fish: frozen, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 121224879.04043683, "current_below_peak_pct": 22.339760959314795, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9375006561207445, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "hs_code": "310420", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: potassic, potassium chloride", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 342125177.90288675, "current_below_peak_pct": 66.05043261748668, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9201813995484115, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "hs_code": "280300", "hs_description": "Carbon: carbon blacks and other forms of carbon n.e.s.", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 309849616.46328956, "current_below_peak_pct": 77.43716262003501, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8647492273241175, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "hs_code": "720310", "hs_description": "Ferrous products: obtained by direct reduction of iron ore, in lumps, pellets or similar forms", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 67848468.67042409, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.1929502619192047, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "hs_code": "290110", "hs_description": "Acyclic hydrocarbons: saturated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 101539040.14837931, "current_below_peak_pct": 47.755070617516445, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0071796683220444, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "RUS", "importer_iso3": "POL", "distance_km": 1154, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 1, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 674048.2663969999, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 17840.920578438512, "importer_population": 37781.025, "importer_biz_entry_days": 37, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 11.6, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 1775799.919353, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 12379.565666376617, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 14.940361988505746, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 14.940361988505746, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/RUS-POL/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/RUS-POL/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/RUS-POL/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/RUS-POL/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/RUS-POL/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }