{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:17.167Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Poland exports to South Africa: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Poland to South Africa, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "POL",
    "country_name": "Poland"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "ZAF",
    "country_name": "South Africa"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "POL",
    "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
    "all_history_lane_count": 622,
    "current_lane_count": 551,
    "current_product_count": 551,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2003,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 1167720525.824254,
    "attention_trade_usd": 862570012.7690897,
    "critical_trade_usd": 69113798.60080388,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 560356623.9846159,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 230748231.3245483,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 397311,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 185702644.6680407,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 1167720525.824254,
    "critical_lane_count": 2,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 94,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 339,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 224,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 2,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 199,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.9759760645353976,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 20.554023422320892,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 678.2499746078327,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 22.983915526865502,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 34.21345015515654,
    "top_product_hs6": "999999",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 268387899.24531624,
    "top_product_description": "Commodities not specified according to kind",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "999999",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
    "distance_km": 9595.30859375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.08409999310970306,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 9.963475213757576,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.331475398787877,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 9.235574183070709,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.0959012157171677,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 40,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 419946.428126,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 6994,
    "buyer_population_latest": 60041.996,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 0.5997022185294298,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -0.829491262325488,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.4411476748953822,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.936,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 19.216,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend weakened",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 73.86784711694872,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 5.918693477792455,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "declining_buyer_demand",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 419946.428126,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 6994,
    "buyer_population_2024": 60041.996
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 14872166.535158765,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 19758225.76882741,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 32.853715174031194,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 34645443.006671734,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 75.34693353556025,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 44850937.46460081,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.4569604896199,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 44.47712637963137
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 105747250.14331809,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 135.77489372832062,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 74.92036694079944
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 178537407.29188526,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 68.83408982258685,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 72.72732010016385
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 201647162.63375565,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.943929058009097,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 65.0467069020177
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 259808602.57841778,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 28.843172988403822,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 34.93609822809552
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 346642849.824455,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.42239109262295,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.75300271967731
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 344640717.38472736,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.5775778847714741,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 19.56153718316367
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 480713471.5178882,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 39.48249503591326,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.765853827827232
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 599997881.6337168,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 24.814035217107456,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.066676738849477
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 543644238.6146883,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.392306997082201,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.40797508340901
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 628261179.2283365,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 15.564763608875666,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.333011529977187
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 712908038.1935563,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.473195824256967,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.915925343175532
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 635034847.685148,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.9233149770245,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.315975797005712
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 611002266.3696069,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.7844507908732172,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.9242127245305043
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 713772975.1116494,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.82002087368275,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.040425380364550456
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 855027067.023845,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.789778660378722,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.423311822943626
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 885064237.8013241,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.5130081766922006,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.147246744805319
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 812570524.0728438,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.190785553438374,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.415984556076991
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 844479655.660242,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.926936880193499,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.41289457708973965
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 985739556.4594167,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.72744865460769,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.656322568091097
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 1143501492.0694509,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.004423742178318,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.062048495906108
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 1243575018.340681,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.75149940470321,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.76995838112196
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "999999",
      "hs_description": "Commodities not specified according to kind",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 792043907.2825749,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "buyer_macro_weakness",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "847150",
      "hs_description": "Digital processing units: other than those of subheadings 8471.41 or 8471.49, whether or not containing in the same housing one or two of the following types of unit: storage units, input units or output units",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 524969818.7130453,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 31.048801744689676,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.138438529510974,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "100199",
      "hs_description": "Cereals: wheat and meslin, other than durum wheat, other than seed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 524385352.48778003,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 75.0190519769038,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2692833426550925,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "381519",
      "hs_description": "Catalysts, supported: reaction initiators, reaction accelerators and catalytic preparations, with an active substance other than nickel or precious metals or their compounds, n.e.c. or included",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 118514379.90491875,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2824861374114604,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "940190",
      "hs_description": "Seat: parts",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 188328998.239913,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0.600079029862906,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.031339234120147,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "842199",
      "hs_description": "Machinery: parts for filtering or purifying liquids or gases",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 325646740.28236765,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 4.323424840642903,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "330499",
      "hs_description": "Cosmetic and toilet preparations: n.e.c. in heading no. 3304, for the care of the skin (excluding medicaments, including sunscreen or sun tan preparations)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 189474994.33609068,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8918361479737829,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "870894",
      "hs_description": "Vehicle parts: steering wheels, steering columns and steering boxes: parts thereof",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 211307629.7993008,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5303528721994883,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "210690",
      "hs_description": "Food preparations: n.e.s. in item no. 2106.10",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 227402960.18957207,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9495829047043142,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "381512",
      "hs_description": "Catalysts, supported: reaction initiators, reaction accelerators and catalytic preparations, with precious metal or precious metal compounds as the active substance, n.e.c. or included",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 241019503.59955698,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 33.95333974975113,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2896950408534673,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "POL",
    "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
    "distance_km": 8715,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 1,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662,
    "importer_population": 60041.996,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 40,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.2,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 674048.2663969999,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 17840.920578438512,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 9.963475213757576,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.331475398787877,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 9.235574183070709,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.0959012157171677
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/POL-ZAF/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/POL-ZAF/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/POL-ZAF/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/POL-ZAF/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/POL-ZAF/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}