{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:17.147Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Poland exports to Italy: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Poland to Italy, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "POL",
    "country_name": "Poland"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "ITA",
    "country_name": "Italy"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "POL",
    "importer_iso3": "ITA",
    "all_history_lane_count": 2291,
    "current_lane_count": 2178,
    "current_product_count": 2178,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1997,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 16595248383.269506,
    "attention_trade_usd": 3010772784.17437,
    "critical_trade_usd": 148979328.6623312,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 9261932096.3795,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 2387812110.7962418,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 55639091.57372261,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 3011744683.456268,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 6,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 332,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 1478,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 906,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 17,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 625,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.1781306144667396,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 19.225081825031257,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 106.20276374655016,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 6.528847438351717,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 12.641990563862318,
    "top_product_hs6": "870340",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 1083478448.959196,
    "top_product_description": "Vehicles: with both spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine and electric motor for propulsion, incapable of being charged by plugging to external source of electric power",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "392520",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 1319.478759765625,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.10580682009458542,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 4.061878207569293,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.6104802155555555,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.0549614848771718,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 3.5555187306783838,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 11,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 2099880.198259,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 35551,
    "buyer_population_latest": 59066.223,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.3456337761183397,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.6164129413341017,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.26132844935394806,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 21.387999999999998,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 22.601999999999997,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 18.142378557043347,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0.8977228012599356,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "declining_buyer_demand",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 2099880.198259,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 35551,
    "buyer_population_2024": 59066.223
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 1144253015.8048177,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 1311734312.261222,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.636736293730035,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 1482771020.9152641,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.038974970411665,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 1629756417.0278177,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.912885674136284,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.512354044941997
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 1760690813.0398674,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.033985609385375,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.309370549118002
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 1916879178.5040936,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.870857069706851,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.936533192864736
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 1894749723.3930302,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.1544522659134415,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.150106657084863
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 2177818406.8629394,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.939634505553734,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.3444319171033445
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 2963970241.909095,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 36.098135297633746,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.635992693417421
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 4359859948.137789,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 47.09526723620547,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 32.02015210106375
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 5206149042.461027,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.410923845953132,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 33.71033522416496
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 7023186140.819664,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 34.901749518482774,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 33.31738301582048
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 8673497063.590551,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 23.49803763820337,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 25.76908433897911
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 9776572809.771835,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.717773904735097,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.37391528132713
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 9007850828.197159,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -7.862898344155189,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.649817754522292
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 9333153355.149496,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.611322313798171,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.473457252799549
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 10068318210.638695,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 7.876918202394867,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.9849755554151907
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 8747857561.480536,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -13.11500710975636,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.9715064559565834
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 8585244101.362143,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.858894694792801,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.7458635472430215
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 9465873987.414928,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.257482206161894,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.0356799318936636
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 9223202448.727592,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.5636464103575896,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.779429648292452
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 9405461581.227413,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.9760938081215373,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.0882471773743703
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 10783453507.964867,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.650976082745593,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.439724414457147
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 11486909891.705273,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.52347954410728,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.590474848608375
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 11585336369.259918,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.8568577492343632,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.195407099491602
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 10910668538.478464,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.82346346517475,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.39170512903603516
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 14398915328.764057,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 31.97097206265276,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.822365254816721
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 15921409100.501785,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.573669870093006,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.179389433275123
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 17023739006.658026,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.923570013168612,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.984831719202663
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 16793196371.438374,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.354242068264122,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.261089984408973
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "870340",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: with both spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine and electric motor for propulsion, incapable of being charged by plugging to external source of electric power",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 7638849831.284512,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.9273392279502644,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "740311",
      "hs_description": "Copper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodes",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 4499363954.93764,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1256399605767842,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "870322",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine, cylinder capacity over 1000 but not over 1500cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 4929521504.014143,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 81.51677436857952,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7964141456621008,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "392520",
      "hs_description": "Plastics: builders' ware, doors, windows and their frames and thresholds for doors",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 763844732.3074768,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 8.25336079709858,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6320910024848294,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "240220",
      "hs_description": "Cigarettes: containing tobacco",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1588451960.5843477,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 5.080997970963583,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4027521160440016,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "870421",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), for transport of goods, (of a gvw not exceeding 5 tonnes), n.e.c. in item no 8704.1",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2600179011.6816077,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.897484559196704,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "020120",
      "hs_description": "Meat: of bovine animals, cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses), fresh or chilled",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1279154335.2929235,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7793116161761589,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "852872",
      "hs_description": "Reception apparatus for television, whether or not incorporating radio-broadcast receivers or sound or video recording or reproducing apparatus: incorporating a colour video display or screen",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 964087662.6572767,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 65.78315156657771,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7190869254699319,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "880330",
      "hs_description": "Aircraft and spacecraft: parts of aeroplanes or helicopters n.e.c. in heading no. 8803",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 879380534.3891011,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0.2796432022445449,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0527258259950771,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "POL",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "870380",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: with only electric motor for propulsion",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2744035811.7047453,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 23.01611864878935,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.304458270030784,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "POL",
    "importer_iso3": "ITA",
    "distance_km": 1317,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 2,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 2099880.198259,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 35551.286193786254,
    "importer_population": 59066.223,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 11,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 13.8,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 674048.2663969999,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 17840.920578438512,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 4.061878207569293,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.6104802155555555,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.0549614848771718,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 3.5555187306783838
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/POL-ITA/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/POL-ITA/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/POL-ITA/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/POL-ITA/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/POL-ITA/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}