{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:17.160Z", "seo": { "title": "Poland exports to Belarus: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Poland to Belarus, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "POL", "country_name": "Poland" }, "importer": { "iso3": "BLR", "country_name": "Belarus" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "all_history_lane_count": 609, "current_lane_count": 587, "current_product_count": 587, "first_observed_last_year": 1995, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 1858063876.390661, "attention_trade_usd": 933695039.3807052, "critical_trade_usd": 80724548.96466628, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 1315720038.9320347, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 428292210.3938057, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 1004794845.7600275, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 3, "high_attention_lane_count": 129, "high_volatility_lane_count": 342, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 321, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 379, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.4491582727056407, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 24.898041884261072, "product_concentration_hhi": 114.03283211691284, "top1_product_share_pct": 4.4092243910792455, "top3_product_share_pct": 11.625136461373337, "top_product_hs6": "871639", "top_product_trade_usd": 81926205.63964954, "top_product_description": "Trailers and semi-trailers: (other than tanker type)", "top_attention_product_hs6": "871639", "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "distance_km": 469.7038269042969, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.2790156602859497, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 11.745829931417626, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.745829931417626, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8.5, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 68218.816484, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 7304, "buyer_population_latest": 9340.314, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.3542249002150193, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.9960922051038628, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.6172032922380555, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 32.812, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 30.426000000000005, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 50.250965601593464, "critical_trade_share_pct": 4.344551874151705, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 68218.816484, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 7304, "buyer_population_2024": 9340.314 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 211026150.8091184, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 244317902.42960358, "yoy_growth_pct": 15.776126083349219, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 288519019.22266304, "yoy_growth_pct": 18.09164058528021, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 273395129.14176637, "yoy_growth_pct": -5.2419040247828175, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.01464172741504 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 216660347.73771963, "yoy_growth_pct": -20.751935699127788, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.9255187386706636 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 219947340.61904693, "yoy_growth_pct": 1.517117883197705, "cagr_3y_pct": -8.648694962136783 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 228107360.05844775, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.709987770906542, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.858125423053817 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 232329374.84637025, "yoy_growth_pct": 1.8508893298492035, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.354803606906586 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 356347693.61841387, "yoy_growth_pct": 53.38038672641019, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.44965506791103 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 511668814.51072866, "yoy_growth_pct": 43.58695837628643, "cagr_3y_pct": 30.903085468314508 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 666641390.9628736, "yoy_growth_pct": 30.28767281827285, "cagr_3y_pct": 42.10064538515243 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 881502915.5524082, "yoy_growth_pct": 32.230450659416164, "cagr_3y_pct": 35.24356191135985 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 980583482.7694025, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.239959104945662, "cagr_3y_pct": 24.21247301598024 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1376374248.823113, "yoy_growth_pct": 40.362781242847646, "cagr_3y_pct": 27.335086564888478 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1019107091.9274902, "yoy_growth_pct": -25.957123013679507, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.953926346095439 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1395796392.9687552, "yoy_growth_pct": 36.96268076486573, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.48963286530973 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1712307777.6510124, "yoy_growth_pct": 22.676042600243495, "cagr_3y_pct": 7.55115951582328 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1765558068.7633314, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.109855121102645, "cagr_3y_pct": 20.103056725811207 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 2085998708.6301727, "yoy_growth_pct": 18.14953841146052, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.330996253926841 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 2315728503.222681, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.012940403178217, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.586455231747149 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1216147400.973153, "yoy_growth_pct": -47.48316137748001, "cagr_3y_pct": -11.684946434928756 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1213744600.6667595, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.19757475980879402, "cagr_3y_pct": -16.51577396944387 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1333070315.66748, "yoy_growth_pct": 9.83120459898812, "cagr_3y_pct": -16.813061985390586 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1367971144.0706348, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.618078580924643, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.9992578551533597 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1537806948.2521975, "yoy_growth_pct": 12.415159845856616, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.207700813872476 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1431614902.0876553, "yoy_growth_pct": -6.905421144392365, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.4057598088265797 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1884310654.164052, "yoy_growth_pct": 31.62133555722648, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.264987225080226 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 1563289796.0648677, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.03651451472584, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.5493401192959269 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 2260144088.352453, "yoy_growth_pct": 44.57614282660296, "cagr_3y_pct": 16.440297281132832 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "export_value_usd": 2375334280.9018373, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.096586237267409, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.0249509076727 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "hs_code": "871639", "hs_description": "Trailers and semi-trailers: (other than tanker type)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 205970794.60741723, "current_below_peak_pct": 18.457402056823675, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8468269264100656, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "hs_code": "852872", "hs_description": "Reception apparatus for television, whether or not incorporating radio-broadcast receivers or sound or video recording or reproducing apparatus: incorporating a colour video display or screen", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 497361042.5964957, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.761145623710944, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "hs_code": "870332", "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 2500cc", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 397093059.67871547, "current_below_peak_pct": 38.530121655861215, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.610589207233273, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "hs_code": "870331", "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity not exceeding 1500cc", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 266418771.00678414, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8578128235219944, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "hs_code": "870350", "hs_description": "Vehicles: with both compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel) and electric motor for propulsion, incapable of being charged by plugging to external source of electric power", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 216466838.2935904, "current_below_peak_pct": 15.746704678981462, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.3783877829093303, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "hs_code": "090121", "hs_description": "Coffee: roasted, not decaffeinated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 111850737.67680414, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.5103342192067784, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "hs_code": "870333", "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity exceeding 2500cc", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 283789490.5583307, "current_below_peak_pct": 62.330101181749654, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.442807881103392, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "hs_code": "060290", "hs_description": "Plants, live: n.e.s. in heading no. 0602", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 51006232.32459388, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2965926825227931, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "hs_code": "080810", "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: apples, fresh", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 36865802.11766365, "current_below_peak_pct": 84.06882381956959, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1381363758529135, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "hs_code": "080830", "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: pears, fresh", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 58883055.18945895, "current_below_peak_pct": 10.905542288901536, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3526423229804339, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "POL", "importer_iso3": "BLR", "distance_km": 477, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 0, "exporter_is_eu": 1, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 68218.816484, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 7303.696265885707, "importer_population": 9340.314, "importer_biz_entry_days": 8.5, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.5, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 674048.2663969999, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 17840.920578438512, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 11.745829931417626, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.745829931417626, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/POL-BLR/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/POL-BLR/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/POL-BLR/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/POL-BLR/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/POL-BLR/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }