{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:17.227Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Papua New Guinea exports to Japan: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Papua New Guinea to Japan, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "PNG",
    "country_name": "Papua New Guinea"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "JPN",
    "country_name": "Japan"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
    "importer_iso3": "JPN",
    "all_history_lane_count": 24,
    "current_lane_count": 10,
    "current_product_count": 10,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 1996448693.650951,
    "attention_trade_usd": 410714128.05358434,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 895176.8922904115,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 412978006.01174295,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 547297.417922217,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 9220644.29866377,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 1996448693.650951,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 4,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 2,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 9,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 2,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 2,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.2921636261436125,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 42.791214758788485,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 6679.255467954649,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 79.31436919340406,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 99.47131507727876,
    "top_product_hs6": "271111",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 1583470687.6392078,
    "top_product_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, natural gas",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "260300",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
    "distance_km": 5086.21484375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.05999999865889549,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.9783297279095349,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.060224438230304,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.7090602010402023,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.3511642371901016,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 11.1,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 4937421.880462,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 39285,
    "buyer_population_latest": 125681.595,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -4.67885267787802,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -4.27363742210356,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.4233058113377264,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 24.977999999999998,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 24.869999999999997,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 20.572235558054945,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "declining_buyer_demand",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 4937421.880462,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 39285,
    "buyer_population_2024": 125681.595
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 665459249.1777269,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 539012780.9155754,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -19.00138414461814,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 419387639.36206853,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -22.193377557821492,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 279470165.3316209,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -33.36232661584315,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -25.113305359214067
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 294559146.4878059,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.399138451247687,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -18.24308731940042
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 335975963.6982653,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.060611494939268,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.125277887699221
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 276108798.4504775,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -17.818883407252784,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.40253958101796883
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 253605388.77250767,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.15019651827792,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.86755582990317
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 271184709.6850621,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.931761583474727,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.892286079095333
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 254434395.1884281,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.176717896848549,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.688270472076093
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 465658157.37785345,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 83.01698441085294,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.453042242893375
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 601663484.4162513,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.20711790044681,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 30.425592565832325
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 761382776.7072827,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 26.546283167906548,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 44.10390269120135
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 826479107.2193228,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.549750861657168,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.075114389375283
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 629846805.1366159,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -23.791563557398742,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.5376463214997083
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 913451276.7958306,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 45.02753198814749,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.257790144946163
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 849931708.5717832,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.953799270702088,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.9370754844576945
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 1185814902.5297334,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 39.51884493430242,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.47925230537602
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 751730743.3251367,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -36.60640107309769,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.28862542831623
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 2120362154.9319015,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 182.06404670279767,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 35.62570355899175
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 2120816480.726776,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.021426801729029776,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.384172468618367
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 1737351955.6722314,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.08098572126977,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 32.21330608875024
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 2157488761.566546,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 24.1825960780498,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.5802782313091948
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 2175615078.7464294,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.840158127485302,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.8539680950523154
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 2303640916.6538806,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.884581291890045,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.86069077634253
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 2096173312.7078207,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.006073926114055,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.9564461630893306
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 2502089077.481137,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.3646089429961,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.770794103850595
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 3475452786.7018414,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 38.90204061801803,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.69175626732062
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 2648892100.4385,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -23.78282016737556,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.113275887977256
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 2000271223.0590637,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -24.486496723368344,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.1898716400918605
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "271111",
      "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, natural gas",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 36343216667.59373,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 38.773316140445736,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.21618086993942356,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "260300",
      "hs_description": "Copper ores and concentrates",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12647304968.077278,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 56.83641815191366,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5675521109302997,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "261690",
      "hs_description": "Precious metal ores and concentrates: (excluding silver)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 267293903.0789032,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 94.36878495056146,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9989769628487198,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "090111",
      "hs_description": "Coffee: not roasted or decaffeinated",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1499516097.5154953,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 77.36045084179631,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8097244553951652,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "030617",
      "hs_description": "Crustaceans: frozen, shrimps and prawns, excluding cold-water varieties, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking: in shell, cooked by steaming or by boiling in water",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1223034907.0837374,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 78.38407488052614,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.41497860060681396,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "230120",
      "hs_description": "Flours, meals and pellets: of fish or of crustaceans, molluscs or other aquatic invertebrates",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 256097387.02119952,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 58.01800118766837,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.77226478616611,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "030487",
      "hs_description": "Fish fillets: frozen, tunas (of the genus Thunnus), skipjack or stripe-bellied bonito (Euthynnus (Katsuwonus) pelamis)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 631216589.0357536,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 91.41540773602713,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.756746697462451,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "030342",
      "hs_description": "Fish: yellowfin tunas (thunnus albacares), frozen (excluding fillets, livers, roes and other fish meat of heading no. 0304)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 111291827.12190619,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 86.85880835317182,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8488601851268526,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "declining_buyer_demand",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "440399",
      "hs_description": "Wood: in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated, n.e.c. in heading no. 4403",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11609205.563734332,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 99.95231014100068,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6881061779061077,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "declining_buyer_demand",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "160300",
      "hs_description": "Extracts and juices: of meat, fish or crustaceans, molluscs or other aquatic invertebrates",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 33545003.70497039,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 87.94345692889267,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5339599188010232,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "PNG",
    "importer_iso3": "JPN",
    "distance_km": 5057,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 4937421.880461999,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 39285.162481125415,
    "importer_population": 125681.595,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 11.1,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 7.5,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 26594.277246,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2916.357348855495,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.9783297279095349,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.060224438230304,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.7090602010402023,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.3511642371901016
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/PNG-JPN/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/PNG-JPN/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/PNG-JPN/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/PNG-JPN/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/PNG-JPN/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}