{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:21.126Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Philippines exports to China, Macao SAR: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Philippines to China, Macao SAR, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "PHL",
    "country_name": "Philippines"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "MAC",
    "country_name": "China, Macao SAR"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
    "importer_iso3": "MAC",
    "all_history_lane_count": 29,
    "current_lane_count": 25,
    "current_product_count": 25,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2019,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 5870087.643425102,
    "attention_trade_usd": 2821675.480969065,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 3817462.1119811544,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 3812157.2677848106,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 2649874.3247598163,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 5870087.643425102,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 2,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 17,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 10,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 13,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.5576864027171877,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 57.1702476234641,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 1463.310945894327,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 30.564918899928635,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 56.65062305546061,
    "top_product_hs6": "854239",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 1794187.5275676143,
    "top_product_description": "Electronic integrated circuits: n.e.c. in heading no. 8542",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "854239",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
    "distance_km": 1155.7802734375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": null,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 0,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 0,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 29905.190182,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 45422,
    "buyer_population_latest": 658.391,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -2.10707901944438,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -2.538342143523442,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.44249516534402566,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.368000000000002,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 55.720000000000006,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 48.068711276049406,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 29905.190182,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 45422,
    "buyer_population_2024": 658.391
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 1794294.9109743177,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 2036336.9059333417,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.489532488702928,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 2574392.9933649497,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 26.422743990145058,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 2571076.926855622,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.12880964630787028,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.738888438374962
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 5383245.966837905,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 109.37708672223638,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 38.27113585286228
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 6373480.501209178,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 18.3947480845452,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 35.280107253677784
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 2847712.4981926866,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -55.3193502725486,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.4650543238400555
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 3366918.859168342,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 18.232400964113182,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -14.480961608473653
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 3282934.232241472,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.4944060263933587,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -19.83923736568164
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 6705876.714368733,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 104.26472904972562,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 33.04129834470022
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 7330215.290553372,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.310319929486099,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 29.606871219593557
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 7744082.067780366,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.646038497127837,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 33.11773559320046
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 10115535.480396999,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 30.62278255654316,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.686184472203912
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 8433056.386446001,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -16.63262510631782,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.782661319286952
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 9346220.042430412,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.8283831405668,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.4687164229552785
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 17451721.930401504,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 86.72492035468191,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 19.936066753185532
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 19365179.44460802,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.964290640416463,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 31.93059076920044
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 26329794.79760918,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 35.96463112011268,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 41.233316528609734
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 20638353.03141492,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -21.61597463992032,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.749644852793989
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 20102281.99592258,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.5974506525610397,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.2530105919025258
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 14612449.766610641,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -27.309497650194448,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.82144151508075
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 25511129.346889246,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 74.58488996952464,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.321042467829542
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 25371823.656718604,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.5460584997097673,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.069242601253613
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 20433502.933095776,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -19.463798859862923,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.825263732351377
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 25804947.618571773,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 26.287439324835326,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.382444117529257
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 18160552.304100383,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -29.623758309703884,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -10.547505485135245
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 11105315.79602979,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -38.84923976941839,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -18.392633584159924
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 17164492.0438626,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 54.56104409024549,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.707688997524059
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 16358820.524049092,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.693826754410635,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.42286631779245
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 13714752.931117462,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -16.16294762232148,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.2882986630036894
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "854239",
      "hs_description": "Electronic integrated circuits: n.e.c. in heading no. 8542",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 42355596.40568519,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 74.13243111406719,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.472097603391569,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "950430",
      "hs_description": "Games n.e.c. in heading 9504, operated by coins, banknotes, bank cards, tokens or by other means of payment, other than bowling alley equipment",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 53408725.532707706,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 91.78698707357565,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9713520587709491,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "854231",
      "hs_description": "Electronic integrated circuits: processors and controllers, whether or not combined with memories, converters, logic circuits, amplifiers, clock and timing circuits, or other circuits",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 121109013.56072386,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 59.702573249449706,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.76220327047116,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "190590",
      "hs_description": "Food preparations: bakers' wares n.e.c. in heading no. 1605, whether or not containing cocoa: communion wafers, empty cachets suitable for pharmaceutical use, sealing wafers, rice papers and similar products",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 65650403.08624658,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0.36083035119829837,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9528164552133853,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "210390",
      "hs_description": "Sauces and preparations therefor: mixed condiments and mixed seasonings",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 25987448.261131115,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 28.476594101524142,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2597872513104655,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "030819",
      "hs_description": "Aquatic invertebrates: sea cucumbers (Stichopus japonicus, Holothuroidea), dried, salted or in brine, smoked, whether or not cooked before or during the smoking process",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 56501618.08094454,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 40.851635986637234,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0395936682439646,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "420222",
      "hs_description": "Cases and containers: handbags (whether or not with shoulder strap and including those without handle), with outer surface of plastic sheeting or of textile materials",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 79011250.27907014,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2199633202350015,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "030572",
      "hs_description": "Fish: edible offal, fish heads, tails and maws",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 153021989.87904784,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 48.321525257572546,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0176603607001853,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "240220",
      "hs_description": "Cigarettes: containing tobacco",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 28344225.7708279,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 59.20515096499055,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9986477112157169,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "420291",
      "hs_description": "Cases and containers: with outer surface of leather, of composition leather or of patent leather, n.e.s. in heading no. 4202",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13422134.80355142,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 42.74201521448863,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.299865392110792,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "PHL",
    "importer_iso3": "MAC",
    "distance_km": 1150,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 29905.190182,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 45421.62663523651,
    "importer_population": 658.391,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": null,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 394086.419343,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 3548.828226706311,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 0,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 0,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/PHL-MAC/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/PHL-MAC/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/PHL-MAC/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/PHL-MAC/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/PHL-MAC/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}