{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:59.991Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "New Zealand exports to China, Macao SAR: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from New Zealand to China, Macao SAR, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "NZL",
    "country_name": "New Zealand"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "MAC",
    "country_name": "China, Macao SAR"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
    "importer_iso3": "MAC",
    "all_history_lane_count": 21,
    "current_lane_count": 14,
    "current_product_count": 14,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2011,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 6009979.122680895,
    "attention_trade_usd": 2964399.295213365,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 3051863.6559814787,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 2628069.487237276,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 3824624.1329195946,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 6009979.122680895,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 6009979.122680895,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 2,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 8,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 5,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 8,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 14,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.9712543567530179,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 37.13595622159337,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 1691.3991124777585,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 30.44979265075246,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 61.775220425187364,
    "top_product_hs6": "020230",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 1830026.1812098443,
    "top_product_description": "Meat: of bovine animals, boneless cuts, frozen",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "020230",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 9670.3427734375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": null,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 0,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 0,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 29905.190182,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 45422,
    "buyer_population_latest": 658.391,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -2.10707901944438,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -2.538342143523442,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.44249516534402566,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.368000000000002,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 55.720000000000006,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 49.32461884977437,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "market_access_friction",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 29905.190182,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 45422,
    "buyer_population_2024": 658.391
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 1814065.805933317,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 3825759.2569796694,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 110.89418280564294,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 2328508.103258972,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -39.136052562354266,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 3958745.278105735,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 70.01208939599945,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 29.70842136401133
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 4090397.4694695184,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.3256040011440113,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.2545459039710947
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 4568067.111924481,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.677829502395799,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 25.184792566502836
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 4609820.542215649,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.9140283903048552,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.206398433061565
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 5512722.619976408,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.586490829571225,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.458771800119893
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 5040877.221159962,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.55920806003595,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.3374834999401415
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 4085059.163430149,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.961343746235272,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.948361587393079
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 4997470.098219507,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 22.33531751406077,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.2179787814438754
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 5789502.529710888,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 15.848667744376588,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.723715650969473
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 6059306.710325835,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.660230809648169,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.044635585740384
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 6851786.5762836505,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.078721772035863,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.09244902384492
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 9677870.91834515,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 41.24594820048151,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.680543291501795
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 10133887.05826505,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.711946912367759,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.700088074498368
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 12623355.706205335,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 24.565782444850814,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.59055120290818
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 15355845.471341383,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 21.64630252629911,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.63564694214883
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 15419869.454238068,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.4169355768536054,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.01863583428269
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 17029334.58617509,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.437605433129459,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.494574228806798
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 3351434.32670859,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -80.31964014947842,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -39.79225982036986
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 15358061.053344091,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 358.2533791860719,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.13379094838394945
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 29688504.98402109,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 93.30893972163669,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.35483727334384
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 18144927.932345007,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -38.882311715894936,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 75.59339591496837
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 22360890.873416364,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 23.234939024232858,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.340268588519887
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 16242818.229217492,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -27.360594346767787,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -18.211730648053837
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 22306093.318078384,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 37.32895981039981,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.124651573730034
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 21735674.619984042,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.5572326357661046,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.9408324609210039
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 21014635.767525937,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.3173060650952713,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.964950931059356
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "export_value_usd": 18380842.166052233,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -12.533139430109575,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.247980763143445
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "020230",
      "hs_description": "Meat: of bovine animals, boneless cuts, frozen",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 48452593.79085314,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1865039380424363,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "190190",
      "hs_description": "Food preparations: of flour, meal, starch, malt extract or milk products, for uses n.e.s. in heading no. 1901",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 19246927.92548742,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 62.59527202109183,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7526375879372632,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "190110",
      "hs_description": "Food preparations: of flour, meal, starch, malt extract or milk products, for infant use, put up for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13431616.143562416,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 68.37491767284459,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9618393058365623,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "010392",
      "hs_description": "Swine: live, (other than pure-bred breeding animals), weighing 50kg or more",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 39919412.135956146,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 33.81383402912493,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.3323911991036822,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "040120",
      "hs_description": "Dairy produce: milk and cream, not concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, of a fat content exceeding 1% but not exceeding 6% (by weight)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 15899224.14121468,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 72.83254105815593,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1016307686461735,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "220421",
      "hs_description": "Wine: still, in containers holding 2 litres or less",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 223594381.5510733,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 34.76088856310528,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8007174882245993,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "030572",
      "hs_description": "Fish: edible offal, fish heads, tails and maws",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 153021989.87904784,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 36.22470018295997,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0736141683748832,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "210690",
      "hs_description": "Food preparations: n.e.s. in item no. 2106.10",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 94112974.97943966,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 78.27694810189233,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.133079240375264,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "220210",
      "hs_description": "Waters: including mineral and aerated, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter or flavoured",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 19431468.406548448,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.081791617531573,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
      "importer_iso3": "MAC",
      "hs_code": "230910",
      "hs_description": "Dog or cat food: put up for retail sale, used in animal feeding",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14269411.375219075,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 60.75947489124243,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2355537272476256,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "NZL",
    "importer_iso3": "MAC",
    "distance_km": 9162,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 29905.190182,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 45421.62663523651,
    "importer_population": 658.391,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": null,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 249991.512237,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 48801.685128059966,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 0,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 0,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/NZL-MAC/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/NZL-MAC/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/NZL-MAC/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/NZL-MAC/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/NZL-MAC/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}