{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:53.840Z", "seo": { "title": "Norway exports to Italy: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Norway to Italy, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "NOR", "country_name": "Norway" }, "importer": { "iso3": "ITA", "country_name": "Italy" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "all_history_lane_count": 467, "current_lane_count": 317, "current_product_count": 317, "first_observed_last_year": 1995, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 2347165456.7761235, "attention_trade_usd": 972601393.7214999, "critical_trade_usd": 18630928.03739619, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 240328077.47029832, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 831335055.7602798, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 20610564.096769128, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 956223815.4575506, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 1, "high_attention_lane_count": 24, "high_volatility_lane_count": 202, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 162, "declining_demand_lane_count": 2, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 72, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.9165515105362757, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 41.219679576303484, "product_concentration_hhi": 2477.849251696556, "top1_product_share_pct": 40.20554730812521, "top3_product_share_pct": 78.24571372826216, "top_product_hs6": "270900", "top_product_trade_usd": 943690718.1240976, "top_product_description": "Oils: petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude", "top_attention_product_hs6": "271121", "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "distance_km": 2010.677734375, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.25839677453041077, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 4.37596273433192, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.920413126868688, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.7260612258124646, "tariff_advantage_pp": 5.194351901056224, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 11, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 2099880.198259, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 35551, "buyer_population_latest": 59066.223, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.3456337761183397, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.6164129413341017, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.26132844935394806, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 21.387999999999998, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 22.601999999999997, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 41.43727451823471, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0.7937628761368243, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "declining_buyer_demand", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 2099880.198259, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 35551, "buyer_population_2024": 59066.223 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 960953054.4730643, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1112179525.066017, "yoy_growth_pct": 15.737134076323557, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1066212515.3637121, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.133056639356525, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 841144673.8521802, "yoy_growth_pct": -21.109097695664868, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.341659453931945 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 900852563.6907256, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.098409072139966, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.783468096684853 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 923265614.5601189, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.4879821374508504, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.685063745071294 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1072360357.2453927, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.148629422997463, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.431804132648747 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1986021963.7805607, "yoy_growth_pct": 85.20098681026597, "cagr_3y_pct": 30.14978132982289 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 2251566458.1553288, "yoy_growth_pct": 13.37067259162037, "cagr_3y_pct": 34.60236883395646 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 2163699478.2579565, "yoy_growth_pct": -3.9024821843082647, "cagr_3y_pct": 26.36265139468563 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 2296948906.55146, "yoy_growth_pct": 6.1584073773861325, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.967719651496272 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 3652733419.229101, "yoy_growth_pct": 59.025453670763525, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.501768345646763 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 3500709595.95076, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.161919467707154, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.395932056835495 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 4704062071.700403, "yoy_growth_pct": 34.374530156444585, "cagr_3y_pct": 26.99128067867498 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 3117688675.39687, "yoy_growth_pct": -33.7234792424858, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.142518643996786 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 2521280581.9097905, "yoy_growth_pct": -19.129815564767995, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.362782938336979 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 3176362229.9813943, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.982100237943385, "cagr_3y_pct": -12.269152153819407 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 2956236653.377343, "yoy_growth_pct": -6.930115668997249, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.756879023370661 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1600779155.9618685, "yoy_growth_pct": -45.85077774023729, "cagr_3y_pct": -14.05180763003704 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1328024027.6851177, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.038898042925787, "cagr_3y_pct": -25.224618663959752 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 924325124.7482177, "yoy_growth_pct": -30.398463771818097, "cagr_3y_pct": -32.127290470028235 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 883447103.6044021, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.422472142034506, "cagr_3y_pct": -17.974344404276565 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1109568344.3934963, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.595334442383177, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.814790438103357 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1612466911.291103, "yoy_growth_pct": 45.323802669631604, "cagr_3y_pct": 20.380280548864892 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1280996218.404697, "yoy_growth_pct": -20.55674386651427, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.185058281781203 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1265908933.5468302, "yoy_growth_pct": -1.1777774704640365, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.491942374548841 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1842511363.729321, "yoy_growth_pct": 45.54849206782696, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.54576733066383 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 3710294718.349664, "yoy_growth_pct": 101.37160570016084, "cagr_3y_pct": 42.5455027807359 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 3057595457.139878, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.59157454478728, "cagr_3y_pct": 34.171163714790524 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 2417979198.4249988, "yoy_growth_pct": -20.91893017505939, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.483194752501634 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "270900", "hs_description": "Oils: petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 38899590405.9718, "current_below_peak_pct": 34.617883583068625, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6279818306971581, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "271121", "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: in gaseous state, natural gas", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 18647827007.1531, "current_below_peak_pct": 72.90433788864293, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7358213600659368, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "030214", "hs_description": "Fish: fresh or chilled, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 941880399.3180485, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8955530268810868, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "730419", "hs_description": "Iron or steel (excluding cast iron or stainless steel): seamless, line pipe of a kind used for oil or gas pipelines", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 194968130.5364395, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 5.08042696165245, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "760120", "hs_description": "Aluminium: unwrought, alloys", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1612223424.886197, "current_below_peak_pct": 65.89825668408513, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5440839522603489, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "290121", "hs_description": "Acyclic hydrocarbons: unsaturated, ethylene", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 96290846.55769873, "current_below_peak_pct": 75.07705432266744, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7420332388611326, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "030551", "hs_description": "Fish: dried, whether or not salted but not smoked, other than edible fish offal, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 61920271.46479894, "current_below_peak_pct": 60.792615656958446, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4180484620234594, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "declining_buyer_demand" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "760612", "hs_description": "Aluminium: plates, sheets and strip, thickness exceeding 0.2mm, alloys, rectangular (including square)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 915374603.7849791, "current_below_peak_pct": 20.708232122207594, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.29469009557955494, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "732690", "hs_description": "Iron or steel: articles n.e.s. in heading no. 7326", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1210900855.7634993, "current_below_peak_pct": 37.14599515992689, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.9602263582725292, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "847989", "hs_description": "Machines and mechanical appliances: n.e.s. in item no. 8479.8, having individual functions", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 922717097.4609647, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5910428540375268, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "NOR", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "distance_km": 2008, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 1, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 1, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 2099880.198259, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 35551.286193786254, "importer_population": 59066.223, "importer_biz_entry_days": 11, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 13.8, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 482437.01979000005, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 89202.75053805989, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 4.37596273433192, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.920413126868688, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.7260612258124646, "tariff_advantage_pp": 5.194351901056224 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/NOR-ITA/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/NOR-ITA/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/NOR-ITA/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/NOR-ITA/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/NOR-ITA/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }