{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:00.050Z", "seo": { "title": "Nigeria exports to Kenya: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Nigeria to Kenya, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "NGA", "country_name": "Nigeria" }, "importer": { "iso3": "KEN", "country_name": "Kenya" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "all_history_lane_count": 23, "current_lane_count": 10, "current_product_count": 10, "first_observed_last_year": 1995, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 1642961.1472890372, "attention_trade_usd": 0, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 1177593.4923491308, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 16035.446068101897, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 756873.6190227946, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 0, "high_volatility_lane_count": 7, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 6, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.5353620650828934, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 3.2889562209247782, "product_concentration_hhi": 2563.4915549295547, "top1_product_share_pct": 44.74109134883556, "top3_product_share_pct": 72.09001616140488, "top_product_hs6": "490199", "top_product_trade_usd": 735078.7477344649, "top_product_description": "Printed matter: books, brochures, leaflets and similar printed matter n.e.c. in item no. 4901.10 or 4901.91", "top_attention_product_hs6": "", "top_attention_product_reason": "", "distance_km": 3805.5595703125, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 1, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.03709999844431877, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 27.705803971515152, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 27.705803971515152, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 23, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 110347.079517, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 2007.0000000000002, "buyer_population_latest": 54985.703, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.6939927181435905, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 1.6964619039059992, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.9642087608958247, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.871999999999996, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 6.416000000000001, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 0, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 110347.079517, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 2007.0000000000002, "buyer_population_2024": 54985.703 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 945512.346193476, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 930284.602540739, "yoy_growth_pct": -1.6105282722158165, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 1247781.683002164, "yoy_growth_pct": 34.129026707987585, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 1127012.676853755, "yoy_growth_pct": -9.678696826021561, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.0279909479533655 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 1004044.4627337977, "yoy_growth_pct": -10.910987661935067, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.575986922357809 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 726323.0689929901, "yoy_growth_pct": -27.660268449131408, "cagr_3y_pct": -16.504370367079247 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 910050.481895052, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.29554970032697, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.879443876290536 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 511339.0441658379, "yoy_growth_pct": -43.812013252160874, "cagr_3y_pct": -20.141955749972272 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 1225105.4766672072, "yoy_growth_pct": 139.58770421409085, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.03679203143531 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 93764.37376154604, "yoy_growth_pct": -92.34642440611532, "cagr_3y_pct": -53.11965585582642 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 1538037.6496266841, "yoy_growth_pct": 1540.3219985642913, "cagr_3y_pct": 44.3508472068711 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 783130.7959401933, "yoy_growth_pct": -49.08246907152913, "cagr_3y_pct": -13.856944184533726 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 1787322.7609159795, "yoy_growth_pct": 128.22787332353545, "cagr_3y_pct": 167.129412829673 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 2940083.2727309153, "yoy_growth_pct": 64.49649369564125, "cagr_3y_pct": 24.107364972547064 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 1942474.1875151966, "yoy_growth_pct": -33.93132073735732, "cagr_3y_pct": 35.36518608384327 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 1122166.9780456233, "yoy_growth_pct": -42.230018537281374, "cagr_3y_pct": -14.371533541712855 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 6167550.358972915, "yoy_growth_pct": 449.6107513085423, "cagr_3y_pct": 28.01210065950861 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 6771458.644195958, "yoy_growth_pct": 9.791704162487157, "cagr_3y_pct": 51.62669123683319 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 17429980.458752565, "yoy_growth_pct": 157.40363154535956, "cagr_3y_pct": 149.50531714936454 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 10724279.967699071, "yoy_growth_pct": -38.472220361476005, "cagr_3y_pct": 20.25001695860178 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 2042688.3293683159, "yoy_growth_pct": -80.95267621210209, "cagr_3y_pct": -32.93334814718546 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 4303423.462456112, "yoy_growth_pct": 110.67450186034544, "cagr_3y_pct": -37.26560303265194 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 3543479.9423163584, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.659045798528684, "cagr_3y_pct": -30.866701492871563 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 5139390.8360616695, "yoy_growth_pct": 45.037954771152755, "cagr_3y_pct": 36.009688531410156 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 7383058.570568766, "yoy_growth_pct": 43.65629713863961, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.712842643069873 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 1277364.8065183011, "yoy_growth_pct": -82.69870414396703, "cagr_3y_pct": -28.83032391552135 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 3499906.391966337, "yoy_growth_pct": 173.99427118287315, "cagr_3y_pct": -12.020478752747943 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 3631088.0782656153, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.7481484247805064, "cagr_3y_pct": -21.065507096764968 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 2307027.712160929, "yoy_growth_pct": -36.46456206970121, "cagr_3y_pct": 21.78093055918804 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "export_value_usd": 3192273.263418924, "yoy_growth_pct": 38.371691271484984, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.020216436125489 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "hs_code": "490199", "hs_description": "Printed matter: books, brochures, leaflets and similar printed matter n.e.c. in item no. 4901.10 or 4901.91", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13660895.517462764, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7646552112220666, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "hs_code": "691010", "hs_description": "Ceramic sinks, wash basins, wash basin pedestals, baths, bidets, water closet pans, flushing cisterns, urinals and similar sanitary fixtures: of porcelain or china", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 22091947.643778715, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9932642783631891, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "hs_code": "550130", "hs_description": "Fibres: synthetic filament tow, acrylic or modacrylic", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 15082244.240714809, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9899980447995046, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "hs_code": "761290", "hs_description": "Aluminium: casks, drums, cans, boxes and the like for any material (not compressed or liquefied gas), 300l capacity or less, whether or not lined or heat-insulated, no mechanical or thermal equipment", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11823956.657089666, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4117590617716214, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "hs_code": "851770", "hs_description": "Telephone sets and other apparatus for the transmission or reception of voice, images or other data, via a wired or wireless network: parts", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 62831174.44610754, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.590867256808693, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "hs_code": "210690", "hs_description": "Food preparations: n.e.s. in item no. 2106.10", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 86821224.48701985, "current_below_peak_pct": 44.4593591976513, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.252703764148266, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "hs_code": "840999", "hs_description": "Engines: parts for internal combustion piston engines (excluding spark-ignition)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11545241.840033568, "current_below_peak_pct": 7.324818326729657, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6162544661046796, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "hs_code": "392590", "hs_description": "Plastics: builders' ware, n.e.s. or included in heading no. 3925", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10779964.946816592, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.197370738371813, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "hs_code": "940360", "hs_description": "Furniture: wooden, other than for office, kitchen or bedroom use", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 15929308.651505165, "current_below_peak_pct": 54.77427383533572, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8280015155294045, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "hs_code": "842123", "hs_description": "Machinery: filtering or purifying machinery, oil or petrol filters for internal combustion engines", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10318314.945765615, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.3366055649853044, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "NGA", "importer_iso3": "KEN", "distance_km": 3811, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 1, "shares_ethnic_language": 1, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 110347.079517, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2006.832203582084, "importer_population": 54985.703, "importer_biz_entry_days": 23, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 22.4, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 440776.971536, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2085.030695738767, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 27.705803971515152, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 27.705803971515152, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/NGA-KEN/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/NGA-KEN/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/NGA-KEN/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/NGA-KEN/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/NGA-KEN/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }