{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:53.693Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Mozambique exports to South Africa: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Mozambique to South Africa, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "MOZ",
    "country_name": "Mozambique"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "ZAF",
    "country_name": "South Africa"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
    "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
    "all_history_lane_count": 111,
    "current_lane_count": 61,
    "current_product_count": 61,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2000,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 1075020922.3653405,
    "attention_trade_usd": 1062896862.3302542,
    "critical_trade_usd": 41124073.821401596,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 304983600.13131267,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 63067907.10711992,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 1059166778.0507021,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 1075020922.3653405,
    "critical_lane_count": 1,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 25,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 43,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 26,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 37,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.9198047498970598,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 15.058752507109807,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 2061.097723199315,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 35.759347633336844,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 73.64565493057556,
    "top_product_hs6": "271600",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 384420468.75972635,
    "top_product_description": "Electrical energy",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "271600",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
    "distance_km": 1622.0955810546875,
    "shares_land_border": 1,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.00800000037997961,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 8.626982093734,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.33147539878788,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 5.451376210753534,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 5.880099188034346,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 40,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 419946.428126,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 6994,
    "buyer_population_latest": 60041.996,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 0.5997022185294298,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -0.829491262325488,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.4411476748953822,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.936,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 19.216,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend weakened",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 98.87220241179958,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 3.825420786315244,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 419946.428126,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 6994,
    "buyer_population_2024": 60041.996
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 54257550.3384173,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 70817224.88953738,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 30.520497972786153,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 84478034.51735488,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.290235742965066,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 117035704.31848767,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 38.53980503588097,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 29.20700618041401
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 151660449.05095243,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.58477067668248,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 28.897495144713425
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 191718096.60934234,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 26.41271854927185,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 31.413435550744538
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 145561190.19610503,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -24.075404059163862,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.541413796116703
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 370949241.0406243,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 154.8407584060482,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 34.73508988710137
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 327842948.1384947,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -11.62053675624285,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 19.5824864288366
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 452537291.36951447,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 38.034779744093704,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 45.94960536603059
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 527719402.08946204,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.613461951925302,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.468143138596076
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 965846035.3618345,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 83.02265020722106,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 43.35538727729491
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 1240785116.8444557,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 28.466139676146305,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 39.96326581059342
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 1271323835.1446192,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.461241506331824,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 34.055419453000994
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 991335357.1030465,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -22.02337990538207,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.872061896342613
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 733588849.6513388,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -25.999930861430542,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -16.069711615218473
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 706273196.542378,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.7235643810485275,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.793622349398586
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 956949250.7446355,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 35.49278882866631,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.1698540111940936
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 1133336471.3041365,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 18.432243969285512,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.602896149460289
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 926597001.4167978,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.24166742374773,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.472756886878809
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 727385347.6167575,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -21.499276761681617,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.73760105357424
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 892107866.0010837,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 22.645839502270903,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.6678741954660845
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 893390248.0551598,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.1437474214664558,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.2091385721861303
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 1066345165.5725878,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.35939169852563,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.599848445078933
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 1130870494.1187623,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.051073388749018,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.226056664225734
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "271600",
      "hs_description": "Electrical energy",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 385206193.2388044,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 3.2195795490232175,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.562098862578824,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "271111",
      "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, natural gas",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 221472132.45736653,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 40.9360351694653,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4866027811781679,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "271121",
      "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: in gaseous state, natural gas",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 187639942.57771435,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6295053261281496,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "670490",
      "hs_description": "Wigs, false beards, eyebrows and eyelashes, switches and the like and other articles n.e.s.: of animal hair or of textile materials other than synthetic",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 104353553.30155694,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 58.343528902400564,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9768963922676938,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "080390",
      "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: bananas, other than plantains, fresh or dried",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 47936517.29235139,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 11.408685867141246,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8882641506019285,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "270119",
      "hs_description": "Coal: (other than anthracite and bituminous), whether or not pulverised but not agglomerated",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 164282468.43717936,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 20.184887223638995,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6906253265127855,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "760511",
      "hs_description": "Aluminium: (not alloyed), wire, maximum cross-sectional dimension exceeds 7mm",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 66390329.11604428,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.3117346826455758,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "271113",
      "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, butanes",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 200725779.46045342,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8920450431520963,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "220300",
      "hs_description": "Beer: made from malt",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 105031591.03735863,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.24897054654822,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "690490",
      "hs_description": "Ceramic flooring blocks, supports or filler tiles and the like (excluding building bricks)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 19250503.01465177,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.9968291713309165,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
    "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
    "distance_km": 443,
    "shares_land_border": 1,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 1,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662,
    "importer_population": 60041.996,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 40,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.2,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 16095.828897000001,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 500.4448240968734,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 8.626982093734,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.33147539878788,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 5.451376210753534,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 5.880099188034346
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MOZ-ZAF/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MOZ-ZAF/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MOZ-ZAF/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MOZ-ZAF/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MOZ-ZAF/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}