{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:06.103Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Mozambique exports to Poland: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Mozambique to Poland, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "MOZ",
    "country_name": "Mozambique"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "POL",
    "country_name": "Poland"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
    "importer_iso3": "POL",
    "all_history_lane_count": 38,
    "current_lane_count": 8,
    "current_product_count": 8,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1998,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 148979796.72731817,
    "attention_trade_usd": 1707531.8140590256,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 1707531.8140590256,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 2211232.026038829,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 234519.49995130402,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 148979796.72731817,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 1,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 1,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 4,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 1,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 8,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.7299174581788902,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 22.246109098504494,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 3808.4486698615883,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 56.59723508486617,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 87.95205031227977,
    "top_product_hs6": "270112",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 84318445.78271602,
    "top_product_description": "Coal: bituminous, whether or not pulverised, but not agglomerated",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "240130",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
    "distance_km": 8778.390625,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 12.288736676767675,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 14.096695189898995,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 4.168635396969698,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 9.928059792929297,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 37,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 674048.2663969999,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 17841,
    "buyer_population_latest": 37781.025,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 8.774876361756622,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 9.599090635201723,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.7520265621440814,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.94,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 22.524,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 1.146149915336754,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "market_access_friction"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 674048.2663969999,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 17841,
    "buyer_population_2024": 37781.025
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 307415.5395433147,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 716332.6807863083,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 133.0177198753407,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 409675.33440398163,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -42.80934747325966,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 387696.55313027394,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.364926669476855,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.041027965978053
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 319359.2701096125,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -17.62648712476397,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -23.606761608338765
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 196235.82201899044,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -38.55327200878273,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -21.756880465988402
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 1930923.7018383862,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 883.9812537649339,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 70.77503822095824
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 1795966.9696763835,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.989231735749768,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 77.83050946588136
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 1364772.2438021495,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -24.0090565781358,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 90.88008988489406
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 3504426.395447562,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 156.77737888957225,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.978683876094806
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 39908173.335341856,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1038.7933097178104,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 181.1390469376191
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 29401190.009093132,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -26.3278983930441,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 178.2498309320843
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 20169223.04726826,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -31.39997720830222,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 79.20800644551078
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 22009266.243774626,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.123024680693304,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.993570255393298
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 19601956.84423075,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.937708567293969,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.640225033435604
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 16621375.776652532,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.205528158559645,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.245396862519792
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 40561622.908906855,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 144.03288544792034,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.603608616842628
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 41568445.55429834,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.4822050331975154,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 28.475835869672174
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 59140807.62708976,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 42.273320155399375,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 52.665215208840024
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 40062500.01211688,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -32.25912594104305,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.41187067808560185
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 51771468.39117589,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.226754135457455,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.5909063882241945
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 89818188.34600641,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 73.48974471296886,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.945598704056962
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 225479549.47332054,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 151.03996598629465,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 77.87832741328754
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 177140764.94010055,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -21.438212310664383,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 50.68707780102215
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 126633703.41326155,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -28.51238761666055,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.13168259399502
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 151842175.26876333,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.906605568689283,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.348015594767103
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 215455659.43711323,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 41.89447632434988,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.744735030776017
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 100983576.94530006,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -53.13022771872235,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.267105892596248
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "export_value_usd": 149164655.7198488,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 47.71179654355784,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.5912748182911765
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "hs_code": "270112",
      "hs_description": "Coal: bituminous, whether or not pulverised, but not agglomerated",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1058939565.8277822,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 18.684930868847324,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6424198382383636,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "hs_code": "760110",
      "hs_description": "Aluminium: unwrought, (not alloyed)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 436920983.3256105,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 40.69537993309487,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.958234822074323,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "hs_code": "240120",
      "hs_description": "Tobacco: partly or wholly stemmed or stripped",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 456964607.1376891,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 25.566215125897664,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6637201987360789,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "hs_code": "760511",
      "hs_description": "Aluminium: (not alloyed), wire, maximum cross-sectional dimension exceeds 7mm",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 84209398.9643159,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8992483636947083,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "hs_code": "240130",
      "hs_description": "Tobacco refuse",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 25812766.41332019,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 80.27026825233843,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1231855128895833,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "hs_code": "090240",
      "hs_description": "Tea, black: (fermented) and partly fermented tea, in immediate packings of a content exceeding 3kg",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 68423953.47361687,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 83.49932783438906,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7621004731655178,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "hs_code": "250410",
      "hs_description": "Graphite: natural, in powder or in flakes",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 17577155.889660403,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 69.22976954147109,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6371861703947593,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
      "importer_iso3": "POL",
      "hs_code": "120740",
      "hs_description": "Oil seeds: sesamum seeds, whether or not broken",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 33696513.378008634,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 94.60507431534472,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7756885757337717,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "MOZ",
    "importer_iso3": "POL",
    "distance_km": 8733,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 1,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 674048.2663969999,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 17840.920578438512,
    "importer_population": 37781.025,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 37,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 11.6,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 16095.828897000001,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 500.4448240968734,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 12.288736676767675,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 14.096695189898995,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 4.168635396969698,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 9.928059792929297
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MOZ-POL/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MOZ-POL/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MOZ-POL/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MOZ-POL/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MOZ-POL/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}