{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:00.265Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Madagascar exports to Russia: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Madagascar to Russia, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "MDG",
    "country_name": "Madagascar"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "RUS",
    "country_name": "Russia"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
    "importer_iso3": "RUS",
    "all_history_lane_count": 44,
    "current_lane_count": 4,
    "current_product_count": 4,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2000,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 3496988.701,
    "attention_trade_usd": 3328945.151,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 3394165.451,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 36455.831,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 3468224.232,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 3496988.701,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 1,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 3,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 3,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 4,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 3.326041299408877,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 1.1258010996593601,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 9072.424884392876,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 95.19462130512615,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 99.17745033057228,
    "top_product_hs6": "180100",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 3328945.151,
    "top_product_description": "Cocoa beans: whole or broken, raw or roasted",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "180100",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 8356.1162109375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 4.988910333333334,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.425769714942529,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 4.575874979770115,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 6.849894735172413,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 10.1,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 1775799.919353,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 12380,
    "buyer_population_latest": 143446.06,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 5.12549554382431,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.397317436553406,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.26532954061908587,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.657999999999998,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 28.309999999999995,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 95.19462130512615,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "market_access_friction"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 1775799.919353,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 12380,
    "buyer_population_2024": 143446.06
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 380119.33557702386,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 298449.3876582297,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -21.485344278743046,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 281386.7032197151,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.717111558645238,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 154219.2298732422,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -45.19313524462339,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -25.970265893313105
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 205009.6686841128,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 32.93392066126704,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.766287976159962
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 5081973.141939851,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2378.894373401657,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 162.36723478962995
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 190854.27272344485,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -96.24448482129141,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.362954029339064
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 109068.94725676543,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -42.85223710196391,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -18.97066789768571
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 130147.71611202964,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.326095451936,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -70.5240329788275
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 121992.38719761191,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.266209779200205,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.858926256756165
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 190436.1364320175,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 56.10493474771958,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.415598026670345
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 605291.4048250767,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 217.84482512916114,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 66.92036224829423
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 1310830.3630770931,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 116.56186633872827,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 120.6672693613275
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 1093469.4382022722,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -16.58192631154649,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 79.06845881126397
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 1485400.7285974168,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 35.84291217498521,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 34.88377390559945
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 1973477.7403013967,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 32.85827200077143,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.611601183396704
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 2511280.9196982384,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 27.2515452499964,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 31.93586919846738
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 4517919.007435951,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 79.9049629214256,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 44.887728188574606
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 5275736.796971063,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.77360280890017,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 38.78748190327206
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 5182928.145204354,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.7591600062382362,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 27.319022896450917
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 4511126.405794404,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -12.961818504691259,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.05014114283765636
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 8289223.512571927,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 83.75063713410185,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.254625951208567
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 5781943.860556844,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -30.24746103434652,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.712927733181237
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 13025485.367501255,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 125.2786550965717,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 42.39769943088605
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 10756826.877005408,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -17.417074500395803,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.074553268354002
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 7814400.213382163,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -27.35403941392043,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.562349664751602
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 7836542.620065729,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.28335388614531,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -15.580353707392014
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 2827028.5145908436,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -63.92505404931834,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -35.94564388010715
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 3184992.146965829,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.662186834248956,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -25.856871834295315
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "export_value_usd": 7527340.619999999,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 136.33780783952298,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.3329016869107146
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "hs_code": "180100",
      "hs_description": "Cocoa beans: whole or broken, raw or roasted",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 68802441.63426282,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 3.43815182567507,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "hs_code": "481910",
      "hs_description": "Paper and paperboard: cartons, boxes and cases, of corrugated paper or paperboard",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 52750210.474608876,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 18.192697332476016,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8785318216623612,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "hs_code": "090411",
      "hs_description": "Spices: pepper (of the genus piper), neither crushed nor ground",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 30883602.13713348,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 56.679038782318315,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4660233080854663,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
      "importer_iso3": "RUS",
      "hs_code": "091099",
      "hs_description": "Spices: mixtures of 2 or more products of the same heading",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 17042713.52262223,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4577498203081432,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "MDG",
    "importer_iso3": "RUS",
    "distance_km": 8326,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 1775799.919353,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 12379.565666376617,
    "importer_population": 143446.06,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 10.1,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 14637.400396000001,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 514.9058436503402,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 4.988910333333334,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.425769714942529,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 4.575874979770115,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 6.849894735172413
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MDG-RUS/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MDG-RUS/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MDG-RUS/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MDG-RUS/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MDG-RUS/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}