{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:06.153Z", "seo": { "title": "Madagascar exports to Nigeria: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Madagascar to Nigeria, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "MDG", "country_name": "Madagascar" }, "importer": { "iso3": "NGA", "country_name": "Nigeria" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "all_history_lane_count": 25, "current_lane_count": 3, "current_product_count": 3, "first_observed_last_year": 1996, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 9933809.703853842, "attention_trade_usd": 0, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 111678.52738514716, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 111678.52738514716, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 105249.20573989069, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 9933809.703853842, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 0, "high_volatility_lane_count": 1, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 1, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.5562244167158198, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 46.32922112454629, "product_concentration_hhi": 9570.408816473191, "top1_product_share_pct": 97.81626848518266, "top3_product_share_pct": 100, "top_product_hs6": "410150", "top_product_trade_usd": 9716881.970728803, "top_product_description": "Hides and skins: raw, whole, of bovine or equine animals, of a weight per skin exceeding 16 kg", "top_attention_product_hs6": "", "top_attention_product_reason": "", "distance_km": 5590.80322265625, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 27.203475916565655, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 27.203475916565655, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 7.2, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 440776.971536, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 2085, "buyer_population_latest": 211400.711, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -17.702539793973116, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -19.412873862302447, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 2.1223415578896843, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 26.304000000000002, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 20.386000000000003, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted", "attention_trade_share_pct": 0, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "buyer_macro_weakness" ], "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 440776.971536, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 2085, "buyer_population_2024": 211400.711 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 83657.53460523336, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 124544.03069423923, "yoy_growth_pct": 48.8736564876586, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 14212.713429347437, "yoy_growth_pct": -88.58820181896935, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 48159.63035671275, "yoy_growth_pct": 238.84895094886852, "cagr_3y_pct": -16.812253243602825 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 188902.67860788482, "yoy_growth_pct": 292.24279175048645, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.896041543415395 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 1170418.4375988764, "yoy_growth_pct": 519.5880578424064, "cagr_3y_pct": 335.065572715866 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 811224.0342611684, "yoy_growth_pct": -30.689400627915465, "cagr_3y_pct": 156.34167713877963 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 335578.9723033498, "yoy_growth_pct": -58.63300911578857, "cagr_3y_pct": 21.111544103206615 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 656122.7061463066, "yoy_growth_pct": 95.51961246046079, "cagr_3y_pct": -17.545447765198276 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 15757.174895071357, "yoy_growth_pct": -97.59844084841689, "cagr_3y_pct": -73.11897351382665 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 53801.14040485243, "yoy_growth_pct": 241.43900009436803, "cagr_3y_pct": -45.675102710581896 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 555476.2579888359, "yoy_growth_pct": 932.4618656944612, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.399489960875026 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 76676.68409339117, "yoy_growth_pct": -86.19622657302983, "cagr_3y_pct": 69.45783595462258 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 308390.7724159512, "yoy_growth_pct": 302.1962817801763, "cagr_3y_pct": 78.96576634937603 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 103755.29530433465, "yoy_growth_pct": -66.35590147801452, "cagr_3y_pct": -42.83701183729542 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 19119.864617010844, "yoy_growth_pct": -81.5721553671757, "cagr_3y_pct": -37.05800611007181 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 241275.48042327375, "yoy_growth_pct": 1161.9099834452395, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.8552481560512195 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 228691.84824483778, "yoy_growth_pct": -5.215462489748357, "cagr_3y_pct": 30.14079972975359 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 102108.6700650524, "yoy_growth_pct": -55.35097956104901, "cagr_3y_pct": 74.79376443311325 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 25273.996967213345, "yoy_growth_pct": -75.24794226473468, "cagr_3y_pct": -52.86028925323538 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 130364.52919236742, "yoy_growth_pct": 415.80495701365567, "cagr_3y_pct": -17.084399180657506 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 99896.49802354709, "yoy_growth_pct": -23.371411961194866, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.7274415332944484 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 130848.6882572727, "yoy_growth_pct": 30.98425955475408, "cagr_3y_pct": 72.99430835180023 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 342214.7025579691, "yoy_growth_pct": 161.53468339331894, "cagr_3y_pct": 37.94725869521991 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 67552.72376758356, "yoy_growth_pct": -80.26013398528939, "cagr_3y_pct": -12.226341559894438 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 9301323.29081538, "yoy_growth_pct": 13668.98335412316, "cagr_3y_pct": 314.24612584918015 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 12349942.661145627, "yoy_growth_pct": 32.77618974216945, "cagr_3y_pct": 230.46243023091785 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 18616535.011115093, "yoy_growth_pct": 50.74187404679134, "cagr_3y_pct": 550.7567210649922 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 18714466.57437052, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.526046136925884, "cagr_3y_pct": 26.24404587496345 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 10738580.506948719, "yoy_growth_pct": -42.618826647962194, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.553359820932979 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "410150", "hs_description": "Hides and skins: raw, whole, of bovine or equine animals, of a weight per skin exceeding 16 kg", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 38750875.14415961, "current_below_peak_pct": 46.24576090707976, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5448506244800994, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened", "risk_driver_labels": [ "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "410120", "hs_description": "Hides and skins: raw, whole, of bovine or equine animals, of a weight per skin not exceeding 8kg when simply dried, 10kg when dry-salted or 14kg when fresh, wet-salted or otherwise preserved", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10663511.220291305, "current_below_peak_pct": 97.25294783762114, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.542105812749742, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "530500", "hs_description": "Coconut, abaca (Manila hemp or Musa textilis Nee), ramie and other vegetable textile fibres n.e.c., raw or processed but not spun: tow, noils and waste of these fibres (including yarn waste and garnetted stock)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 20851532.02681389, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.560177075794636, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness", "limited_history" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "MDG", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "distance_km": 5596, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 440776.971536, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2085.030695738767, "importer_population": 211400.711, "importer_biz_entry_days": 7.2, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 26.1, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 14637.400396000001, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 514.9058436503402, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 27.203475916565655, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 27.203475916565655, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MDG-NGA/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MDG-NGA/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MDG-NGA/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MDG-NGA/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MDG-NGA/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }