{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:00.211Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "China, Macao SAR exports to Japan: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from China, Macao SAR to Japan, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "MAC",
    "country_name": "China, Macao SAR"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "JPN",
    "country_name": "Japan"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
    "importer_iso3": "JPN",
    "all_history_lane_count": 34,
    "current_lane_count": 8,
    "current_product_count": 8,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1996,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 7357046.155784753,
    "attention_trade_usd": 6315814.684602005,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 678511.722903583,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 4056802.1342802662,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 6652867.928551122,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 7357046.155784753,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 3,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 3,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 6,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.6493442233832716,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 33.61325999383851,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 3604.2971142001993,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 55.14172465929759,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 85.8471532034084,
    "top_product_hs6": "741021",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 4056802.1342802662,
    "top_product_description": "Copper: foil, backed with paper, paperboard, plastics or similar backing material, of a thickness (excluding any backing) not exceeding 0.15mm, of refined copper",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "741021",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
    "distance_km": 2939.84716796875,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": null,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.9192582961135758,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.060224438230304,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.5495235011054547,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.510700937124849,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 11.1,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 4937421.880462,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 39285,
    "buyer_population_latest": 125681.595,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -4.67885267787802,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -4.27363742210356,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.4233058113377264,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 24.977999999999998,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 24.869999999999997,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 85.8471532034084,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 4937421.880462,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 39285,
    "buyer_population_2024": 125681.595
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 32341243.19495469,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 41743032.46193573,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.070587083825327,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 29490964.808551695,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -29.35116816095319,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 19599526.283464637,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -33.54057281374114,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -15.375466390000092
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 18972451.07167282,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.1994406534246456,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -23.114139031419477
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 19760384.860212762,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.153041615779318,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.49447542624197
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 18808585.963962853,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.816702220037938,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.363680832410652
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 16601285.04662882,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -11.735602674029877,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.352691179006641
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 25554041.55739949,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 53.92809343147014,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.948536134276598
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 24829924.426098853,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.8336696943773942,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.699946839114414
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 25579710.142709363,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.0196858586585495,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.5007056281659
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 23002755.44440156,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.074213835617984,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.445299329554019
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 28218113.764791504,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 22.672754718432063,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.356024833484007
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 35958169.35171241,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 27.429386852137448,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.021311139702796
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 22912746.867334757,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -36.27944002593225,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.13060208196692402
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 26825512.551184993,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 17.07680753645655,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.6728730517845958
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 30751030.888341222,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.633525937914737,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.08080740588106
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 28613513.460551616,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.951043155434544,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.687346814441187
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 24880064.139434163,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -13.047853512518204,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.478324178845437
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 23645307.1007352,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.962837040045686,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.386018073895219
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 24523295.93521769,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.7131631690890288,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.011896466632493
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 21918340.99689063,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.62236880886026,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.136769280856489
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 19844977.353615537,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.459491681278354,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.673175061008051
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 10027283.191065239,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -49.47193432176743,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -25.77763066712898
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 14265978.831346214,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 42.27162591815343,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.337482945034163
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 13582264.883827956,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.792618547953776,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.873363252055357
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 18947111.195016764,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 39.498908003013455,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.628872305319515
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 18457567.007001583,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.583740513139199,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.965987627071659
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 10992219.561483596,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -40.44599942498449,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.80962352877772
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 9860904.681870928,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.291960356912455,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -19.562619512527625
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "741021",
      "hs_description": "Copper: foil, backed with paper, paperboard, plastics or similar backing material, of a thickness (excluding any backing) not exceeding 0.15mm, of refined copper",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 72094173.26421863,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 58.67285654462459,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.46711712053350407,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "740919",
      "hs_description": "Copper: plates and sheets, of a thickness exceeding 0.15mm, of refined copper, not in coils",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 43573774.076001436,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9835823111134182,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "999999",
      "hs_description": "Commodities not specified according to kind",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 131171941.76467736,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6494591987286975,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "392190",
      "hs_description": "Plastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip, other than cellular",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 205578589.6757286,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 13.073158588047137,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0528504273665853,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "611120",
      "hs_description": "Garments and clothing accessories: babies', of cotton, knitted or crocheted",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 131500421.8025191,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0.10473105878448392,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8317961298239476,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "711620",
      "hs_description": "Stones: precious or semi-precious stones (natural, synthetic or reconstructed) articles of",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 45668892.55371084,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 1.3527727413195942,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8139833834556476,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "950640",
      "hs_description": "Table-tennis articles and equipment",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12473500.936861848,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.405365298623082,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "buyer_macro_weakness",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "630130",
      "hs_description": "Blankets (other than electric blankets) and travelling rugs: of cotton",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 18190088.059055615,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 40.797534204567775,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.396900445954712,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
    "importer_iso3": "JPN",
    "distance_km": 2941,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 4937421.880461999,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 39285.162481125415,
    "importer_population": 125681.595,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 11.1,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 7.5,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 29905.190182,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 45421.62663523651,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.9192582961135758,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.060224438230304,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.5495235011054547,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.510700937124849
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MAC-JPN/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MAC-JPN/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MAC-JPN/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MAC-JPN/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MAC-JPN/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}