{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:00.254Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "China, Macao SAR exports to Italy: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from China, Macao SAR to Italy, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "MAC",
    "country_name": "China, Macao SAR"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "ITA",
    "country_name": "Italy"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
    "importer_iso3": "ITA",
    "all_history_lane_count": 53,
    "current_lane_count": 11,
    "current_product_count": 11,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 5166871.113405221,
    "attention_trade_usd": 3863201.015103028,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 4938405.717324683,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 518884.22528960777,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 96390.23473408465,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 5166871.113405221,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 1,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 8,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 5,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 1,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 11,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 2.3914704548962815,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 9.047666278797356,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 5717.5021309034355,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 74.76867392879458,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 88.2213824545447,
    "top_product_hs6": "610711",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 3863201.015103028,
    "top_product_description": "Underpants and briefs: men's or boys', of cotton, knitted or crocheted",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "610711",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 9244.4619140625,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": null,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.9247239075767684,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.920413126868686,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.639136716327022,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.281276410541664,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 11,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 2099880.198259,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 35551,
    "buyer_population_latest": 59066.223,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.3456337761183397,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.6164129413341017,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.26132844935394806,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 21.387999999999998,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 22.601999999999997,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 74.76867392879458,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "market_access_friction"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 2099880.198259,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 35551,
    "buyer_population_2024": 59066.223
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 20534083.021052502,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 17463107.21869402,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -14.955504948577314,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 20066911.296223696,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.910313754143022,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 15358113.964472502,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -23.46548137000696,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.227522133155242
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 16318087.42972556,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.25059475059071,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.2351859883044445
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 28029091.630430806,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 71.76701467705155,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.783103787253424
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 31328751.31212098,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.772267632490019,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 26.824083666727596
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 28518451.728469107,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.97035300147625,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.453353646546503
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 53469221.87618685,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 87.48991840538854,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.021871389936145
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 87413451.92740522,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 63.483680629988434,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 40.781329357391
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 36976121.38356817,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -57.699735488908566,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.04317039283109
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 47159459.123758756,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 27.54030806680543,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.099327974766364
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 51104490.19139293,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.365301767523192,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -16.383189730809853
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 25914540.98413509,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -49.29106838345949,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.17387383775057
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 11250071.136519639,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -56.5878047255132,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -37.980420449056304
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 9855310.078951038,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -12.397797672949551,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -42.22538266768511
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 4948409.093814402,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -49.78941246726261,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -42.41526686339564
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 3200099.104540196,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -35.33074885541747,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -34.23380438537023
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 2221249.6324022003,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -30.588098685732447,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -39.14321220099912
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 3392024.5966609847,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 52.707941835093706,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.827910633918037
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 2027157.5126009048,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -40.237534993219604,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -14.116838666353503
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 5488052.808049842,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 170.72651108440522,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 35.18867274153044
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 5704523.527212904,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.9443993477166206,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.91960580733498
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 7329783.366275778,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 28.490720238241153,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 53.48568660023923
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 7549411.496639217,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.9963795570540963,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.215402727657132
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 5824957.537545441,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -22.842230283267174,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.6988388401371282
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 4292785.743218137,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -26.303570188306313,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -16.333932242295713
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 3411056.0214411877,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -20.539802695019905,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -23.265279074823265
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 11761134.311689746,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 244.79452221721675,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 26.391775671835017
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 11256363.86488368,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.291851733249564,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 37.8964132478109
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "610711",
      "hs_description": "Underpants and briefs: men's or boys', of cotton, knitted or crocheted",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 201193375.75544742,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.71983833851385,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "611490",
      "hs_description": "Garments: of textile materials (other than wool or fine animal hair, cotton or man-made fibres), knitted or crocheted, n.e.s. in chapter 61",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 26334929.366143182,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8890985261738147,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "611012",
      "hs_description": "Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats and similar articles: knitted or crocheted, of fibres from kashmir (cashmere) goats",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 182357436.1480211,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 82.35579129966145,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3119867398832572,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "430310",
      "hs_description": "Furskin articles: apparel and clothing accessories",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 55991710.96644749,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1338503443963892,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "294130",
      "hs_description": "Antibiotics: tetracyclines and their derivatives: salts thereof",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 41404404.096840896,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 77.46454776146321,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9982998936497218,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "610610",
      "hs_description": "Blouses, shirts and shirt-blouses: women's or girls', of cotton, knitted or crocheted",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 44867044.123538226,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 93.6978531872452,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6725739146412868,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "610120",
      "hs_description": "Coats: men's or boys' overcoats, car-coats, capes, anoraks, wind-jackets and similar articles, of cotton, knitted or crocheted (excluding those of heading no. 6103)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 51485591.91436084,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 91.58993154283986,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8936082058426875,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "620119",
      "hs_description": "Coats: men's or boys', overcoats, raincoats, car-coats, capes, cloaks and similar articles, of textile materials (other than wool or fine animal hair, cotton or man-made fibres), other than those of heading no. 6203 (not knitted or crocheted)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 18068261.164297987,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 47.59590051486639,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1463669980031577,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "090210",
      "hs_description": "Tea, green: (not fermented), in immediate packings of a content not exceeding 3kg",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 19109503.558260612,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "620339",
      "hs_description": "Jackets and blazers: men's or boys', of textile materials n.e.s. in item no. 6203.3 (not knitted or crocheted)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 40681951.55415099,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 88.10928086563062,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.423083605019467,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
    "importer_iso3": "ITA",
    "distance_km": 9257,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 2099880.198259,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 35551.286193786254,
    "importer_population": 59066.223,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 11,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 13.8,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 29905.190182,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 45421.62663523651,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.9247239075767684,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.920413126868686,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.639136716327022,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.281276410541664
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MAC-ITA/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MAC-ITA/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MAC-ITA/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MAC-ITA/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MAC-ITA/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}