{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:53.762Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "China, Macao SAR exports to Hong Kong: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from China, Macao SAR to Hong Kong, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "MAC",
    "country_name": "China, Macao SAR"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "HKG",
    "country_name": "Hong Kong"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
    "importer_iso3": "HKG",
    "all_history_lane_count": 410,
    "current_lane_count": 342,
    "current_product_count": 342,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 1448502548.412998,
    "attention_trade_usd": 466125695.55216974,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 1165299582.7263174,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 131427727.33473991,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 14126408.925010087,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 479339225.9655205,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 58,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 260,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 181,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 13,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 218,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.3924121377597198,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 13.46743260289488,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 1120.7680039558652,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 30.3185185533277,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 43.576963406817136,
    "top_product_hs6": "711319",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 439164513.88601935,
    "top_product_description": "Jewellery: of precious metal (excluding silver) whether or not plated or clad with precious metal, and parts thereof",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "851712",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 60.770565032958984,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 1,
    "common_spoken_language_score": null,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 0,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 0,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 1.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 368139.247671,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 49661,
    "buyer_population_latest": 7413.1,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 2.303516880397938,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 2.259425330431597,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.04311734573498871,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 23.188,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 22.356,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 32.17983261837298,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "declining_buyer_demand",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 368139.247671,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 49661,
    "buyer_population_2024": 7413.1
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 188651725.15288466,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 187513371.77423596,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.6034153028424027,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 174740386.203997,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.811773181497427,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 173580780.4838055,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.6636163198344591,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.7371587818876053
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 149248118.12965634,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -14.018062533380139,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.325794060596181
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 136062631.88625064,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.83460803971483,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.00126437532015
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 120831802.82496178,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -11.193983866210932,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.374260330324848
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 152180468.159587,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 25.944051650075295,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.650673198369045
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 149462236.19217408,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.786189778679348,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.180478151488697
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 199533272.86852902,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.50079454985211,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.19833447513215
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 229798543.01447693,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 15.168031732677223,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.726246500984752
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 219371106.47070807,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.537642583361345,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.644734060188357
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 274406331.0365994,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 25.08772711744516,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.205499964646993
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 323594064.85828537,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 17.925145398750097,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.085928096014054
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 300113809.994946,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -7.256083288679072,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.011725090832725
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 331650710.907858,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.508313800502256,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.519454859320328
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 490259787.48138756,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 47.82413284728211,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.852884902379548
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 599910424.860009,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 22.365823218324678,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 25.96990723060202
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 771462121.8837049,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 28.596218687769603,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 32.49858031646933
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 711622358.5622178,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -7.756669008631856,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.224680551933222
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 853152823.7406301,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.8884230484782,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.455355083737473
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 812167317.2641485,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.80400525392175,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.7287325994128189
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 798119733.4459126,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.7296416045841756,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.897752886553052
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 884640635.9448202,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.840591815134083,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.215420584193061
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 948822429.7480774,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 7.255126115104282,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.320556353919859
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 843761779.4522861,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -11.072741010526698,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.87100719275759
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 989293812.7129853,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 17.248000182607083,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.797318963941221
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 1169736115.4900048,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 18.239505843282732,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.226217321831863
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 1542846818.1471705,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 31.8969977686693,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.283441662552782
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "export_value_usd": 1502573044.2595065,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.61035466476377,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.948533117449037
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "hs_code": "711319",
      "hs_description": "Jewellery: of precious metal (excluding silver) whether or not plated or clad with precious metal, and parts thereof",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 17035963921.793066,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 1.411677749213433,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.095274781785059,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "hs_code": "851712",
      "hs_description": "Telephones for cellular networks or for other wireless networks",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 30349684361.136154,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 6.323431781167726,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5142299475424692,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "hs_code": "870324",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity exceeding 3000cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 275140114.1059425,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7632881748821376,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "hs_code": "910121",
      "hs_description": "Wrist-watches: (not electrically operated), automatic winding, whether or not incorporating a stop-watch facility, case of precious metal or of metal clad with precious metal",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1418100501.8824594,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 34.78880451070662,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.870925204707647,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "hs_code": "853710",
      "hs_description": "Boards, panels, consoles, desks and other bases: for electric control or the distribution of electricity, (other than switching apparatus of heading no. 8517), for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 401576475.86698824,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 3.407882093491368,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "hs_code": "710231",
      "hs_description": "Diamonds: non-industrial, unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted, but not mounted or set",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1286676220.7118628,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6085898065362436,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "hs_code": "420221",
      "hs_description": "Cases and containers: handbags (whether or not with shoulder strap and including those without handle), with outer surface of leather, of composition leather or of patent leather",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 776350949.6002936,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 10.028109223819808,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1505206334242557,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "hs_code": "910221",
      "hs_description": "Wrist-watches: whether or not incorporating a stop-watch facility, with automatic winding",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1426999589.7858708,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 20.09605776513724,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8859394626769559,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "hs_code": "970110",
      "hs_description": "Paintings, drawings and pastels: executed entirely by hand, other than drawings of heading no. 4906",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 3026728593.879903,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.497164773586179,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
      "importer_iso3": "HKG",
      "hs_code": "330499",
      "hs_description": "Cosmetic and toilet preparations: n.e.c. in heading no. 3304, for the care of the skin (excluding medicaments, including sunscreen or sun tan preparations)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2189587188.789812,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 42.99812788915208,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.439663942015729,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "MAC",
    "importer_iso3": "HKG",
    "distance_km": 67,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 1,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 1,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 368139.247671,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 49660.63423817296,
    "importer_population": 7413.1,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 1.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.5,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 29905.190182,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 45421.62663523651,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 0,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 0,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MAC-HKG/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MAC-HKG/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MAC-HKG/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MAC-HKG/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/MAC-HKG/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}