{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:23.534Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Lithuania exports to Madagascar: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Lithuania to Madagascar, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "LTU",
    "country_name": "Lithuania"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "MDG",
    "country_name": "Madagascar"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
    "importer_iso3": "MDG",
    "all_history_lane_count": 4,
    "current_lane_count": 3,
    "current_product_count": 3,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2019,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 115275.05636452121,
    "attention_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 82742.16509058683,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 0,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 17582.038639304465,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 0,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 1,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 0,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 1,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.0862443080942734,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 0.06267375760956789,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 5552.93040928033,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 71.77803047776501,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 100,
    "top_product_hs6": "851762",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 82742.16509058683,
    "top_product_description": "Communication apparatus (excluding telephone sets or base stations): machines for the reception, conversion and transmission or regeneration of voice, images or other data, including switching and routing apparatus",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "",
    "distance_km": 8453.708984375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.004000000189989805,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 9.19468123601533,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 9.80520649578544,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 5.293872144444445,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.511334351340994,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 14637.400396,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 515,
    "buyer_population_latest": 28427.334,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 4.3132742329127005,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 1.745400205779224,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 2.5238232116046477,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.479999999999997,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 10.228,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Stable",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 14637.400396,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 515,
    "buyer_population_2024": 28427.334
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 15822.343621854005,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 16393.611797676782,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.6105155435616654,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 6317.181742359577,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -61.46558903355992,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 12153.195506992717,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 92.38318608913868,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.418752005398344
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 4786.908878058732,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -60.61193226666652,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -33.65724466719673
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 315.74072098799314,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -93.40407914520324,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -63.16428747770275
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 54509.17688090017,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 17163.904608291887,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 64.9148306735482
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 16546.15538208144,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -69.64519310531149,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 51.19844080488443
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 6278.52672003302,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -62.05446778994768,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 170.92082130024627
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 58604.405496211424,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 833.4101471483937,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.444083210481063
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 354161.0862136892,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 504.32502166852373,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 177.65228217165978
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 205171.41998823508,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -42.068333316427264,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 219.7076580061519
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 260939.35965142777,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 27.181144267749644,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 64.51409366428142
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 575100.1552080982,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 120.39609355075362,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.538699528077295
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 171218.31321613136,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -70.22808780947442,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.85199609770094
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 62329.85937005473,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -63.596265960537266,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -37.95327665428869
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 802345.654251802,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1187.257283043502,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.739315506216276
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 502262.77901140077,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -37.400698022130186,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 43.150738776296095
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 639865.9542594817,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 27.396649920769377,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 117.33564081224239
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 317461.7358482957,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -50.38621234103714,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -26.586382063017545
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 173389.1481189516,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -45.382662368541816,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -29.84957510313452
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 130807.69111124885,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -24.558317212845548,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -41.0910304986009
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 297206.5085361353,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 127.20874132956617,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.1736965795650875
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 1375179.496756633,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 362.7016761947642,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 99.42479697194109
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "hs_code": "851762",
      "hs_description": "Communication apparatus (excluding telephone sets or base stations): machines for the reception, conversion and transmission or regeneration of voice, images or other data, including switching and routing apparatus",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 22611105.404460113,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2451664187741691,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "hs_code": "870120",
      "hs_description": "Tractors: road, for semi-trailers",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12600805.41946935,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0.4109148597176035,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6628826479047814,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "hs_code": "848180",
      "hs_description": "Taps, cocks, valves and similar appliances: for pipes, boiler shells, tanks, vats or the like, including thermostatically controlled valves",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13498564.741736589,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7045939373754699,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "limited_history"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "LTU",
    "importer_iso3": "MDG",
    "distance_km": 8426,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": null,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 1,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 14637.400396000001,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 514.9058436503402,
    "importer_population": 28427.334,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 8,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 30.2,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 65503.84970499999,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 23433.3909075201,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 9.19468123601533,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 9.80520649578544,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 5.293872144444445,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.511334351340994
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LTU-MDG/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LTU-MDG/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LTU-MDG/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LTU-MDG/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LTU-MDG/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}