{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:19.986Z", "seo": { "title": "Lithuania exports to Bulgaria: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Lithuania to Bulgaria, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "LTU", "country_name": "Lithuania" }, "importer": { "iso3": "BGR", "country_name": "Bulgaria" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "all_history_lane_count": 289, "current_lane_count": 243, "current_product_count": 243, "first_observed_last_year": 1996, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 124640802.91173247, "attention_trade_usd": 4713564.7008675225, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 84548205.96801634, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 15654992.635291673, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 10079578.728024643, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 1, "high_volatility_lane_count": 152, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 70, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 52, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.6753326707512763, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 13.644123959687155, "product_concentration_hhi": 603.9156277981232, "top1_product_share_pct": 19.299802499207576, "top3_product_share_pct": 35.037195747192065, "top_product_hs6": "240220", "top_product_trade_usd": 24055428.795390934, "top_product_description": "Cigarettes: containing tobacco", "top_attention_product_hs6": "560122", "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "distance_km": 1345.485595703125, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.368764191865921, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 4.662916440659004, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 7.527176092720307, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 4.782124083398467, "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.7450520093218396, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 23, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 80271.119426, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 11635, "buyer_population_latest": 6899.125, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 10.593931268104285, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 11.189451881330982, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.5355909244541324, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 25.716, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 23.028, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 3.7817188198037783, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 80271.119426, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 11635, "buyer_population_2024": 6899.125 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 7662216.224521108, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 6432287.4898195015, "yoy_growth_pct": -16.051866700988036, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 4339199.087722306, "yoy_growth_pct": -32.54034284708145, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 4418454.991049007, "yoy_growth_pct": 1.8265099555112352, "cagr_3y_pct": -16.76512263789922 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 3819759.930294493, "yoy_growth_pct": -13.549873473133978, "cagr_3y_pct": -15.946292587792477 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 2863449.0305523975, "yoy_growth_pct": -25.03589013952421, "cagr_3y_pct": -12.938403493592388 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 2671211.7850394035, "yoy_growth_pct": -6.713485850869461, "cagr_3y_pct": -15.443701691977163 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 4926090.081423684, "yoy_growth_pct": 84.41405915521665, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.848411027065751 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 13413562.481397917, "yoy_growth_pct": 172.2963295368987, "cagr_3y_pct": 67.32142701321757 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 12999684.376349436, "yoy_growth_pct": -3.0855196419478537, "cagr_3y_pct": 69.46297588780624 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 14172836.273533136, "yoy_growth_pct": 9.024464465599147, "cagr_3y_pct": 42.22790301784618 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 29279389.801971767, "yoy_growth_pct": 106.5880762106111, "cagr_3y_pct": 29.719707777733205 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 25881219.110289585, "yoy_growth_pct": -11.606016090722415, "cagr_3y_pct": 25.800965373400242 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 36253507.97754197, "yoy_growth_pct": 40.07650807735204, "cagr_3y_pct": 36.76167841762747 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 23451319.350395996, "yoy_growth_pct": -35.31296512071761, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.131502395126543 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 39784946.54392428, "yoy_growth_pct": 69.64907581309483, "cagr_3y_pct": 15.410330076071688 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 53875275.17120786, "yoy_growth_pct": 35.41623114090968, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.115986337522779 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 59585667.6162299, "yoy_growth_pct": 10.599282188119208, "cagr_3y_pct": 36.45564595519777 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 59424688.911325425, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.2701634660557617, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.309602007537059 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 59763664.79686653, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.5704293817119233, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.518008083957369 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 53548475.67507443, "yoy_growth_pct": -10.399611775678741, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.4982695769761096 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 55694096.22084922, "yoy_growth_pct": 4.006875114044628, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.1380013195741343 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 58107142.71602859, "yoy_growth_pct": 4.332679150785901, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.9325997135482544 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 79033395.59367299, "yoy_growth_pct": 36.01321954499062, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.855629701918183 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 93272515.29780518, "yoy_growth_pct": 18.01658602312679, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.753980592162243 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 88364726.53586431, "yoy_growth_pct": -5.2617737886354154, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.996107207987075 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 109907845.67536062, "yoy_growth_pct": 24.379772318712114, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.619314573060603 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 146183220.5394088, "yoy_growth_pct": 33.00526422035082, "cagr_3y_pct": 16.157684357119194 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 143966363.6333261, "yoy_growth_pct": -1.5164920419064476, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.6686305653583 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 155081092.64054677, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.7203651788616545, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.161390734990096 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "240220", "hs_description": "Cigarettes: containing tobacco", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 285941238.36240333, "current_below_peak_pct": 1.6514482593983506, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6908457074406135, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "851762", "hs_description": "Communication apparatus (excluding telephone sets or base stations): machines for the reception, conversion and transmission or regeneration of voice, images or other data, including switching and routing apparatus", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 254297407.3559676, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 3.044009870561491, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "870899", "hs_description": "Vehicle parts and accessories: n.e.c. in heading no. 8708", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 160279939.6715086, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.6198399893564757, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "847330", "hs_description": "Machines: parts and accessories of automatic data processing, magnetic or optical readers, digital processing units", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 49629679.135240965, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 4.276509651607984, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "560122", "hs_description": "Wadding: other articles thereof, of man-made fibres", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 31144104.579535138, "current_below_peak_pct": 65.95427163885036, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1389700643056817, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "870120", "hs_description": "Tractors: road, for semi-trailers", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 217032556.79231316, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8347360202145349, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "844332", "hs_description": "Printing, copying, and facsimile machines: single-function printing, copying or facsimile machines, capable of connecting to an automatic data processing machine or to a network", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 25068656.01402021, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 3.1097309590753923, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "230910", "hs_description": "Dog or cat food: put up for retail sale, used in animal feeding", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 103060709.86991346, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1276111032011282, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "180632", "hs_description": "Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa: in blocks, slabs or bars, (not filled), weighing 2kg or less", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 76672333.15219906, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6651028527374305, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "210690", "hs_description": "Food preparations: n.e.s. in item no. 2106.10", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 215751316.22135818, "current_below_peak_pct": 6.5210041581685045, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3211876081736333, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "LTU", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "distance_km": 1341, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": null, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 2, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 1, "importer_is_eu": 1, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 80271.119426, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 11634.971018208831, "importer_population": 6899.125, "importer_biz_entry_days": 23, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 65503.84970499999, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 23433.3909075201, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 4.662916440659004, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 7.527176092720307, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 4.782124083398467, "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.7450520093218396 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LTU-BGR/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LTU-BGR/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LTU-BGR/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LTU-BGR/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LTU-BGR/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }