{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:21.701Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Libya exports to Germany: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Libya to Germany, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "LBY",
    "country_name": "Libya"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "DEU",
    "country_name": "Germany"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
    "importer_iso3": "DEU",
    "all_history_lane_count": 51,
    "current_lane_count": 4,
    "current_product_count": 4,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 2527693095.843402,
    "attention_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 0,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 2502989555.115765,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 418298.5096090391,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 0,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 0,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 2,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 1,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.5893054444807126,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 62.59176813150332,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 9792.082806360553,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 98.95026131395011,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 99.98345137270435,
    "top_product_hs6": "270900",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 2501158923.5517216,
    "top_product_description": "Oils: petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "",
    "distance_km": 2143.80908203125,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.009800000116229057,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.8965675951625516,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.8782636827160495,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.6483117691365758,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.229951913579474,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 4223116.205969,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 50802,
    "buyer_population_latest": 83129.288,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.422772294996279,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.3176380750794765,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.10175824948728263,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.237999999999996,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 27.802,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Stable",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 4223116.205969,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 50802,
    "buyer_population_2024": 83129.288
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1461951333.5088515,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1913825621.325132,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 30.908982909282635,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1724834176.5346184,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.875060856362449,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1300866950.5897295,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -24.580173080561618,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.8166302899545146
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1879072361.2931764,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 44.44769777887936,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.6090030701108917
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2567337953.1121817,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 36.627945043337306,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.176983259927333
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1433267007.0782182,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -44.17302929126329,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.2836096960110694
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1223122252.5406964,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -14.661940413036634,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.33532336198574
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1481368776.8145237,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 21.113713182585947,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -16.74824799145599
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2323741093.2130437,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 56.864457357466634,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.477188629671158
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 3110809134.739441,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.87072870661834,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 36.50058083056948
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 3928144888.294521,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 26.274056624934627,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 38.41232713028005
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 4589155528.79803,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.827552427438587,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 25.462810726127238
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 5607325269.862505,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 22.186429173629453,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.700994720569543
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2735918972.595129,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -51.20812792331173,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.358197718463114
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2663009993.187886,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.6648808001095814,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -16.590918279494804
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1911574999.5291617,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -28.217505588823666,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -30.142689038493508
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 6836053284.600034,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 257.61365817631093,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 35.696111496541924
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 4843917195.161152,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -29.141611489873554,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.069726470879438
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1780077300.6238852,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -63.251285500873145,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.3476932410387064
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 933948710.1113098,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -47.533249832241694,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -48.49620914223581
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 445215229.2404479,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -52.32979879726089,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -54.87078626778862
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1630921662.3782947,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 266.32207419335174,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.874914747384172
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2160659357.3596325,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 32.48087919862728,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 32.257738411460956
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2453473560.669321,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.552076236002009,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 76.6324353506484
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 495108969.47614294,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -79.8200813160149,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -32.79175353816952
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2072138350.4445364,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 318.5216746602252,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.3847344338891454
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2148072705.9431524,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.6645408103337163,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.334385640239791
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2919620672.589147,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 35.91814953522403,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 80.66549360955517
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2533778741.17111,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -13.215481553494712,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.934205357780754
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "270900",
      "hs_description": "Oils: petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 38792530009.57262,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 63.21429845475718,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5894901905505237,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "720310",
      "hs_description": "Ferrous products: obtained by direct reduction of iron ore, in lumps, pellets or similar forms",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 171736516.6702212,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5583216646760952,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "271114",
      "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, ethylene, propylene, butylene and butadiene",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 385093937.11643636,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 56.68725946421007,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8825784962307767,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "846023",
      "hs_description": "Machine-tools: cylindrical grinding machines (excluding flat-surface and centreless), numerically controlled",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 128554194.08058652,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "LBY",
    "importer_iso3": "DEU",
    "distance_km": 2183,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 0,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 4223116.205968999,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 50801.7848771783,
    "importer_population": 83129.288,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 8,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 6.5,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 41879.579677,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6018.445207455935,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.8965675951625516,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.8782636827160495,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.6483117691365758,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.229951913579474
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBY-DEU/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBY-DEU/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBY-DEU/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBY-DEU/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBY-DEU/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}