{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:21.701Z", "seo": { "title": "Libya exports to Bulgaria: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Libya to Bulgaria, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "LBY", "country_name": "Libya" }, "importer": { "iso3": "BGR", "country_name": "Bulgaria" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "all_history_lane_count": 14, "current_lane_count": 4, "current_product_count": 4, "first_observed_last_year": 2002, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 178841839.6767358, "attention_trade_usd": 0, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 0, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 514950.3120499374, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 440338.4280632369, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 0, "high_volatility_lane_count": 0, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 2, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 1, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.9317221835213716, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 0.26092625280669857, "product_concentration_hhi": 9884.955902446569, "top1_product_share_pct": 99.42237988745123, "top3_product_share_pct": 99.95828052086605, "top_product_hs6": "270900", "top_product_trade_usd": 177808813.24111074, "top_product_description": "Oils: petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude", "top_attention_product_hs6": "", "top_attention_product_reason": "", "distance_km": 1421.2874755859375, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 14.115139557777775, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 15.100112106666666, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 13.533760373333333, "tariff_advantage_pp": 1.566351733333332, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 23, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 80271.119426, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 11635, "buyer_population_latest": 6899.125, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 10.593931268104285, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 11.189451881330982, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.5355909244541324, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 25.716, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 23.028, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 0, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 80271.119426, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 11635, "buyer_population_2024": 6899.125 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 1244509.3515564553, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 436432.56602884457, "yoy_growth_pct": -64.93135503698572, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 1990599.7277594265, "yoy_growth_pct": 356.10705586710606, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 1700867.0585189646, "yoy_growth_pct": -14.555044150768492, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.974722716743713 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 1343200.8809651234, "yoy_growth_pct": -21.028461675616207, "cagr_3y_pct": 45.45922615388209 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 444053.91250984545, "yoy_growth_pct": -66.94061783292, "cagr_3y_pct": -39.35189248543558 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 275585.4592298494, "yoy_growth_pct": -37.93873863824155, "cagr_3y_pct": -45.48341501913777 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 748993.1109286001, "yoy_growth_pct": 171.78252184340016, "cagr_3y_pct": -17.691323502335578 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 41837.50004662022, "yoy_growth_pct": -94.41416757562027, "cagr_3y_pct": -54.496653077198445 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 396646.6396574736, "yoy_growth_pct": 848.0648681577142, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.905689365088357 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 2457862.7772703175, "yoy_growth_pct": 519.660557163126, "cagr_3y_pct": 48.60266674567904 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 2817895.498655647, "yoy_growth_pct": 14.64820268709952, "cagr_3y_pct": 306.8675487873765 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 3267383.692185865, "yoy_growth_pct": 15.95120165899191, "cagr_3y_pct": 101.96004211540344 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 7935583.394764461, "yoy_growth_pct": 142.8727123093276, "cagr_3y_pct": 47.79976464381062 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 7292774.765991844, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.100332348554396, "cagr_3y_pct": 37.29539550685199 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 5333963.176004603, "yoy_growth_pct": -26.85962000529213, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.747029238112468 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 980987.4479138759, "yoy_growth_pct": -81.60865728644413, "cagr_3y_pct": -50.18483993094477 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 1780.75489946675, "yoy_growth_pct": -99.81847322274575, "cagr_3y_pct": -93.74965798434484 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 4211048.496361468, "yoy_growth_pct": 236375.4687813844, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.576996755855547 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 48520432.56223058, "yoy_growth_pct": 1052.2173777897447, "cagr_3y_pct": 267.074095929572 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 55415707.74790614, "yoy_growth_pct": 14.211075255423422, "cagr_3y_pct": 3045.402629004865 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 4221009.127263977, "yoy_growth_pct": -92.38300962162941, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.07878313230877954 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 5822427.848446509, "yoy_growth_pct": 37.93923853039753, "cagr_3y_pct": -50.675826451241235 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 2676250.19938326, "yoy_growth_pct": -54.035493971860646, "cagr_3y_pct": -63.583521843195015 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 340.29997649499614, "yoy_growth_pct": -99.98728444834593, "cagr_3y_pct": -95.68001860976679 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 12310219.725060744, "yoy_growth_pct": 3617361.2328372453, "cagr_3y_pct": 28.347445625791636 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 32119206.054671906, "yoy_growth_pct": 160.91496961085653, "cagr_3y_pct": 128.9528371588551 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 14410665.406510144, "yoy_growth_pct": -55.133805667609145, "cagr_3y_pct": 3385.571841981108 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 1722677.9932673723, "yoy_growth_pct": -88.0458122878272, "cagr_3y_pct": -48.082620089582015 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 178880511.89253786, "yoy_growth_pct": 10283.862369615486, "cagr_3y_pct": 77.25537327747251 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "270900", "hs_description": "Oils: petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2824267714.6084523, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9347967307509284, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "271112", "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, propane", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 59391208.12329478, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage", "risk_driver_labels": [ "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "290511", "hs_description": "Alcohols: saturated monohydric, methanol (methyl alcohol)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 34518537.47413696, "current_below_peak_pct": 91.52336588160829, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8183290732257463, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "780199", "hs_description": "Lead: unwrought, unrefined, not containing by weight antimony as the principal other element", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13981877.126568355, "current_below_peak_pct": 85.28501987267038, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7434514636014142, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "limited_history" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "LBY", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "distance_km": 1407, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 0, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 1, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 80271.119426, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 11634.971018208831, "importer_population": 6899.125, "importer_biz_entry_days": 23, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 41879.579677, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6018.445207455935, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 14.115139557777775, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 15.100112106666666, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 13.533760373333333, "tariff_advantage_pp": 1.566351733333332 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBY-BGR/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBY-BGR/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBY-BGR/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBY-BGR/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBY-BGR/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }