{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:17.400Z", "seo": { "title": "Lebanon exports to Syrian Arab Republic: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Lebanon to Syrian Arab Republic, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "LBN", "country_name": "Lebanon" }, "importer": { "iso3": "SYR", "country_name": "Syrian Arab Republic" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "all_history_lane_count": 60, "current_lane_count": 33, "current_product_count": 33, "first_observed_last_year": 2002, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 38260517, "attention_trade_usd": 32165866, "critical_trade_usd": 10018683, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 28176238, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 22041971, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 37038674, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 38260517, "critical_lane_count": 1, "high_attention_lane_count": 7, "high_volatility_lane_count": 31, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 24, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 29, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.8476991386179253, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 40.253704123897805, "product_concentration_hhi": 1450.539758024016, "top1_product_share_pct": 26.185435497382326, "top3_product_share_pct": 60.65490698936452, "top_product_hs6": "080390", "top_product_trade_usd": 10018683, "top_product_description": "Fruit, edible: bananas, other than plantains, fresh or dried", "top_attention_product_hs6": "080390", "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "distance_km": 85.94135284423828, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 1, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.9016000628471375, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 21.16070448921212, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 21.381889623030304, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0, "tariff_advantage_pp": 21.381889623030304, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 15.5, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 21445.775364, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 1266, "buyer_population_latest": 18275.703, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 0.9043464757107378, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -1.065563203855846, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 3.9239347234722777, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": null, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": null, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend weakened", "attention_trade_share_pct": 84.07065173740334, "critical_trade_share_pct": 26.185435497382326, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "buyer_macro_weakness" ], "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 21445.775364, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 1266, "buyer_population_2024": 18275.703 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 33630459.64881956, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 35989491.22540236, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.014568344341998, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 37221585.921657294, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.4234846181578904, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 45742176.57525062, "yoy_growth_pct": 22.89153039187306, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.797001601404933 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 31839826.975545578, "yoy_growth_pct": -30.392846691136867, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.001378393285949 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 12633827.260006484, "yoy_growth_pct": -60.320678659121384, "cagr_3y_pct": -30.244248737917633 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 111715186.18028793, "yoy_growth_pct": 784.2545008821863, "cagr_3y_pct": 34.66822291512477 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 218415059.47172412, "yoy_growth_pct": 95.51062567200314, "cagr_3y_pct": 90.00744876826936 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 229516498.99415115, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.082726232008827, "cagr_3y_pct": 162.88127876550945 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 350907993.50353986, "yoy_growth_pct": 52.89009506566331, "cagr_3y_pct": 46.45145223382485 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 181670286.97857764, "yoy_growth_pct": -48.22851278913799, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.955419327026645 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 169782120.38358897, "yoy_growth_pct": -6.543814507427137, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.560251181223512 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 195836678.29218194, "yoy_growth_pct": 15.345878499884357, "cagr_3y_pct": -17.66833006873322 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 196845419.84797233, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.5150932729186541, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.710254180597893 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 195351615.86305407, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.7588715988779193, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.787227934670213 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 200878076.80541125, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.8289814332692176, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.8508359784903607 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 213167836.48496008, "yoy_growth_pct": 6.118019385188456, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.6909380630500523 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 241833871.78051436, "yoy_growth_pct": 13.447636270201002, "cagr_3y_pct": 7.374224545163166 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 311976145.73396194, "yoy_growth_pct": 29.00432161839923, "cagr_3y_pct": 15.805614525319346 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 195997617.31791747, "yoy_growth_pct": -37.175447546859985, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.760428111461233 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 151197301.91947895, "yoy_growth_pct": -22.857581643847368, "cagr_3y_pct": -14.491562469377827 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 124293638.8394522, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.793745482544686, "cagr_3y_pct": -26.41727990887207 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 250652749.81111324, "yoy_growth_pct": 101.66176817373311, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.544351231970548 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 205184387.58624637, "yoy_growth_pct": -18.139981412185136, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.713375072594644 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 189471465.24363515, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.657952209451857, "cagr_3y_pct": 15.08842242155135 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 122077718.49999936, "yoy_growth_pct": -35.56933845261416, "cagr_3y_pct": -21.3217586926575 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 107704320.50668922, "yoy_growth_pct": -11.773973309724173, "cagr_3y_pct": -19.332932191331576 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 369973275.96500826, "yoy_growth_pct": 243.5082958831073, "cagr_3y_pct": 24.99007072648698 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 125421855.87027454, "yoy_growth_pct": -66.09975259885073, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.9049038368899476 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "export_value_usd": 101038834.68262997, "yoy_growth_pct": -19.44080720099075, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.1069782388693836 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "hs_code": "080390", "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: bananas, other than plantains, fresh or dried", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10685483, "current_below_peak_pct": 54.8651615417925, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.958338426928939, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "hs_code": "070110", "hs_description": "Vegetables: seed potatoes, fresh or chilled", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 21035155.799000002, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 3.0013342815241035, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "hs_code": "151211", "hs_description": "Vegetable oils: sunflower seed or safflower oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12255064.627598267, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.799619567180689, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "hs_code": "100590", "hs_description": "Cereals: maize (corn), other than seed", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 29633982.30974105, "current_below_peak_pct": 66.17360773451485, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.241566020806543, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "hs_code": "100630", "hs_description": "Cereals: rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished or glazed", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 133759186.47034796, "current_below_peak_pct": 85.68490262511814, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.935469681346107, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "hs_code": "271019", "hs_description": "", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 33043708.297536734, "current_below_peak_pct": 98.64047445773092, "lane_volatility_cv": 3.0426276649579984, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "hs_code": "300490", "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 28190049.504011482, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2574624780633983, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "hs_code": "851712", "hs_description": "Telephones for cellular networks or for other wireless networks", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16284235.308841977, "current_below_peak_pct": 56.99342606428802, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.679793515465977, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "hs_code": "961900", "hs_description": "Sanitary towels (pads) and tampons, napkins and napkin liners for babies and similar articles, of any material", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 21772898.17601275, "current_below_peak_pct": 96.43110167304695, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1771595901487923, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "hs_code": "392190", "hs_description": "Plastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip, other than cellular", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16434549.327854061, "current_below_peak_pct": 89.36030645718375, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4833808697806468, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "LBN", "importer_iso3": "SYR", "distance_km": 88, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 1, "shares_ethnic_language": 1, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 1, "exporter_is_wto": 0, "importer_is_wto": 0, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 21445.775364, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 1173.4582994700668, "importer_population": 18275.703, "importer_biz_entry_days": 15.5, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 8.1, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 18076.62484, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2670.4419564580553, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 21.16070448921212, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 21.381889623030304, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0, "tariff_advantage_pp": 21.381889623030304 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBN-SYR/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBN-SYR/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBN-SYR/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBN-SYR/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBN-SYR/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }