{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:19.968Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Lebanon exports to Italy: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Lebanon to Italy, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "LBN",
    "country_name": "Lebanon"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "ITA",
    "country_name": "Italy"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
    "importer_iso3": "ITA",
    "all_history_lane_count": 144,
    "current_lane_count": 42,
    "current_product_count": 42,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 39336573.77171663,
    "attention_trade_usd": 7974286.695788452,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 12870906.967828834,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 6685787.781517263,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 49507.78098346092,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 7362033.698004105,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 4,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 21,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 18,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 1,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 10,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.9245524618249996,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 24.70546276558729,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 2147.941779176876,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 43.75761163466996,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 59.738970483953224,
    "top_product_hs6": "280920",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 17212745.18141321,
    "top_product_description": "Phosphoric acid and polyphosphoric acids",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "850423",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
    "distance_km": 2199.887451171875,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.17471890151500702,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.4769426703707071,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.920413126868686,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.1915880234401535,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.728825103428533,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 11,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 2099880.198259,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 35551,
    "buyer_population_latest": 59066.223,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.3456337761183397,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.6164129413341017,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.26132844935394806,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 21.387999999999998,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 22.601999999999997,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 20.271940159470724,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "declining_buyer_demand",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 2099880.198259,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 35551,
    "buyer_population_2024": 59066.223
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 19079157.641190737,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 18136038.46514161,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.943190856670688,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 24583765.280111182,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 35.55201334272879,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 16741924.821666623,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -31.898451555705275,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.26250415435192
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 16106496.853358313,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.795429588155641,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.878717972141932
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 14590465.577915257,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.412545069519284,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -15.962411193450754
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 22113801.122140855,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 51.56336858512065,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.720051813833773
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 23045626.23485924,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.2137717870014635,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.684056827972224
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 36798044.36067105,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 59.67474255487859,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 36.11893090298683
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 21822840.197268695,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -40.69565223799645,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.4405189225364703
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 25054528.63187622,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.808743524648982,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.825123742265756
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 29123155.46582943,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.23908752678269,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.5008170410470925
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 35062891.51314832,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 20.39523517390849,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.123889225506804
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 49315320.4614053,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 40.648184827861165,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 25.32331506915022
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 24048487.46035647,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -51.23526069514832,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.182660567968856
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 34697286.96352945,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 44.28053747965377,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.34878535795033194
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 44966832.20301926,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.597545336280028,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.0301304495412906
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 40973783.54123518,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.879986572672049,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 19.437150654221625
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 47335364.10000137,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 15.525977854507932,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.908134740221964
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 39905761.7355831,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.695669623925124,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.9019805347536463
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 41994014.16844809,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.232959708179052,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.8231914729142087
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 35326633.13151895,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.87697953852344,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.293409674661257
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 38202271.46436919,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.140142657083715,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.44366909052015
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 44997346.757153995,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 17.7870975528837,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.329261228523505
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 35232583.245686896,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -21.700753967042797,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.0888220057321587
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 51112092.49323758,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 45.07052218345251,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.19067029220524
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 54488193.19217633,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.605287583139807,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.587227783114735
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 61828885.99499167,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.472079679583416,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.618978161770873
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 54411423.33534636,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -11.996759346830444,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.1069903161752057
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 56120948.58294182,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.1418498962237695,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.9890294967284774
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "280920",
      "hs_description": "Phosphoric acid and polyphosphoric acids",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 81956976.08377416,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 21.094097311940626,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7849590121173728,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "850423",
      "hs_description": "Electrical transformers: liquid dielectric, having a power handling capacity exceeding 10,000kVA",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 55392541.33458476,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.22460906447628604,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "760200",
      "hs_description": "Aluminium: waste and scrap",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1015695937.9119974,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 30.780600523074526,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1376423015647517,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "850421",
      "hs_description": "Electrical transformers: liquid dielectric, having a power handling capacity not exceeding 650kVA",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 50539865.31487699,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 67.78179520040342,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.640215833686692,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "050400",
      "hs_description": "Animal products: guts, bladders and stomachs of animals (other than fish), whole and pieces thereof",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 108960093.98000763,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1015061040529086,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "320820",
      "hs_description": "Paints and varnishes: based on acrylic or vinyl polymers, dispersed or dissolved in a non-aqueous medium",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 134406686.66070965,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6930920758365464,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "310311",
      "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: phosphatic, superphosphates, containing by weight 35% or more of diphosphorus pentaoxide (P2O5)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11880291.67247918,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 82.20237000863555,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5908762368825272,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "240110",
      "hs_description": "Tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 78766132.19646865,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8417078665884625,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "780110",
      "hs_description": "Lead: unwrought, refined",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 177485507.44541162,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 80.50521630387325,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1675383683724447,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "620443",
      "hs_description": "Dresses: women's or girls', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 196483738.39297923,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1726163597461228,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "LBN",
    "importer_iso3": "ITA",
    "distance_km": 2200,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 1,
    "exporter_is_wto": 0,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 2099880.198259,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 35551.286193786254,
    "importer_population": 59066.223,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 11,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 13.8,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 18076.62484,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2670.4419564580553,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.4769426703707071,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.920413126868686,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.1915880234401535,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.728825103428533
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBN-ITA/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBN-ITA/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBN-ITA/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBN-ITA/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/LBN-ITA/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}