{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:07.986Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Kyrgyzstan exports to Bulgaria: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Kyrgyzstan to Bulgaria, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "KGZ",
    "country_name": "Kyrgyzstan"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "BGR",
    "country_name": "Bulgaria"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
    "importer_iso3": "BGR",
    "all_history_lane_count": 18,
    "current_lane_count": 5,
    "current_product_count": 5,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1996,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 8668517.628212996,
    "attention_trade_usd": 2701487.751341239,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 0,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 215540.12988921133,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 2984025.7301623877,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 1,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 0,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 4,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.01827147178388707,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 2.4135541367530275,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 5277.988470548355,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 65.57628584095593,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 99.22711296434487,
    "top_product_hs6": "710813",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 5684491.898050608,
    "top_product_description": "Metals: gold, semi-manufactured",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "270111",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
    "distance_km": 4123.4189453125,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.33410197496414185,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 12.008667116858234,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 12.616520079693489,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 14.326018014559386,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": -1.7094979348658974,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 23,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 80271.119426,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 11635,
    "buyer_population_latest": 6899.125,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 10.593931268104285,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 11.189451881330982,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.5355909244541324,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 25.716,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 23.028,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 31.164356666344435,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 80271.119426,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 11635,
    "buyer_population_2024": 6899.125
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 631941.6201264084,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 363569.55653543427,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -42.46785700509664,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 796704.1889115666,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 119.13391112930496,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 541324.9373688619,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -32.054463262154584,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.028413776164564
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 90679.14175250963,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -83.24866720656536,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -37.05325219380728
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 56628.77170406468,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -37.550388535192084,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -58.57651055067091
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 140893.1360632631,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 148.80132805909003,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -36.15249454633591
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 132527.67138093355,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.937453673096849,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.48358721070737
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 249343.82796732784,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 88.14472884732234,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 63.90309718573421
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 1957753.5100031602,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 685.162209934344,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 140.41195408468258
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 2534313.87747123,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.450100052030503,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 167.4142901793097
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 1810955.144826842,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -28.542586578350914,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 93.65840783812504
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 5999199.1576405605,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 231.2726532613366,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 45.24853345872164
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 2897669.1402852414,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -51.69906742311131,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.56735704709339
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 2219236.001016832,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -23.41306430870247,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.011864715420413
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 3932921.531764914,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 77.2196165690755,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.129164058584852
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 5176591.406861274,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 31.622036317064726,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.338427906738588
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 6448590.040520616,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 24.572127364995076,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 42.69883462577915
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 7410162.847857174,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.91136514019935,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.51057878738434
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 3997722.785530429,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -46.050810655443755,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.253480854454654
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 5096118.595499059,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 27.47553717191753,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.546167369030865
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 4263022.343948087,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -16.347662165609155,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -16.830654167635828
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 3362216.139552486,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -21.130693947086897,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.607464698799403
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 5341026.249687509,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 58.85433975694387,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.57692514107044
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 5426291.607221237,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.5964227387708085,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.374849318938704
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 4752623.739594463,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -12.414885088930083,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.228356095363369
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 3003617.344332341,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -36.80085971651867,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.458321321949878
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 1342543.7903958475,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -55.30243581363141,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -37.22186006501795
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 955897.7181884911,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -28.799512907758064,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -41.409662822989254
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 8843985.64683309,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 825.2020878963085,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 43.329133452568655
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "710813",
      "hs_description": "Metals: gold, semi-manufactured",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 41652821.21068283,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "270111",
      "hs_description": "Coal: anthracite, whether or not pulverised, but not agglomerated",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16837285.47813875,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "071333",
      "hs_description": "Vegetables, leguminous: kidney beans, including white pea beans (phaseolus vulgaris), shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 18175696.747252114,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 97.06747690949243,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7348356676477503,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "441233",
      "hs_description": "Plywood: with sheets of wood only: not bamboo: each ply 6mm or less, with at least one outer ply of alder, ash, beech, birch, cherry, chestnut, elm, eucalyptus, hickory, horse chestnut, lime, maple, oak, plane, poplar, aspen, robinia, tulipwood or walnut",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 24094957.847331878,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "270112",
      "hs_description": "Coal: bituminous, whether or not pulverised, but not agglomerated",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16378429.664838152,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "KGZ",
    "importer_iso3": "BGR",
    "distance_km": 4128,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 80271.119426,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 11634.971018208831,
    "importer_population": 6899.125,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 23,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 8543.423503,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 1276.2426433330345,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 12.008667116858234,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 12.616520079693489,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 14.326018014559386,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": -1.7094979348658974
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KGZ-BGR/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KGZ-BGR/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KGZ-BGR/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KGZ-BGR/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KGZ-BGR/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}