{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:07.965Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Kenya exports to South Africa: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Kenya to South Africa, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "KEN",
    "country_name": "Kenya"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "ZAF",
    "country_name": "South Africa"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
    "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
    "all_history_lane_count": 97,
    "current_lane_count": 34,
    "current_product_count": 34,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2000,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 12341114.270810343,
    "attention_trade_usd": 6327181.215869274,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 5415274.965591108,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 3300044.5199054284,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 6268776.2789131645,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 12341114.270810343,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 4,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 24,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 8,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 14,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.1864865401867104,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 27.169283709636417,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 847.888252329291,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 18.427625858475345,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 42.35454416536679,
    "top_product_hs6": "090240",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 2274174.364591838,
    "top_product_description": "Tea, black: (fermented) and partly fermented tea, in immediate packings of a content exceeding 3kg",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "090240",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
    "distance_km": 4106.48193359375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 1,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.02029999904334545,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 11.33147539878788,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.33147539878788,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 40,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 419946.428126,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 6994,
    "buyer_population_latest": 60041.996,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 0.5997022185294298,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -0.829491262325488,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.4411476748953822,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.936,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 19.216,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend weakened",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 51.26912430293717,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 419946.428126,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 6994,
    "buyer_population_2024": 60041.996
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 7616384.829022998,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 9022123.014065549,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 18.45676415516513,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 9823312.533328049,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.88027704802341,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 15073631.596510317,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 53.44754170621413,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 25.551818034877694
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 54673263.95758051,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 262.707975231648,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 82.31486736219789
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 32268630.601849318,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -40.97913995607494,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 48.65317561823985
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 28406372.324821286,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -11.96908020263706,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.518675514851605
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 29656244.146264244,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.399969862926945,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -18.445665361992127
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 38178841.8395632,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 28.73795363723608,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.766322654051592
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 34161623.50185419,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.52210633992079,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.342673786129915
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 27980941.89536127,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.09247035978091,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.9196379267937824
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 30585199.9980821,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.307256748038807,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.12556353300392
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 37431116.16891849,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 22.383100882994622,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.0935335076937243
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 33566444.82721417,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.324755810817665,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.254583186513485
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 40971237.81286775,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 22.060105035759147,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.235781863646487
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 39510397.72692712,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.5655258760130315,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.8183858861778868
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 34460637.05475415,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -12.780839886943108,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.880211801107933
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 22236897.223161016,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -35.47160144535623,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -18.42976729236033
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 27300425.291697077,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 22.770839014636014,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.593132270412843
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 23123750.87518631,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.298935353146415,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.452249136970527
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 24308869.943333812,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.125116052946388,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.0141445521005394
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 35925629.71894783,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 47.78815223699719,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.583455829131893
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 30391624.765711453,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.404058318614911,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.538102180914887
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 23908592.202741306,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -21.331641901174226,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.5519180140515667
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 24047718.355195843,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.5819085928387979,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.5238160515166
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "090240",
      "hs_description": "Tea, black: (fermented) and partly fermented tea, in immediate packings of a content exceeding 3kg",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 32777344.403328374,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 12.16713301695983,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.41763559836500513,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "800110",
      "hs_description": "Tin: unwrought, not alloyed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11202139.133372078,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 59.98910991232449,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7187400839920381,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "090111",
      "hs_description": "Coffee: not roasted or decaffeinated",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 99246737.63081378,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7288778386327922,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "283620",
      "hs_description": "Carbonates: disodium carbonate",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 91520628.22879669,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 89.49975941225318,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1009189125999561,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "392350",
      "hs_description": "Plastics: stoppers, lids, caps and other closures, for the conveyance or packing of goods",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 62577799.62484608,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 38.48785622814533,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.9112607797229133,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "310590",
      "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: n.e.s. in heading no. 3105",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 19261063.584060136,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8260560087704126,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "610910",
      "hs_description": "T-shirts, singlets and other vests: of cotton, knitted or crocheted",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 169385076.37728164,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 3.5674307379030203,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "130219",
      "hs_description": "Vegetable saps and extracts: n.e.c. in item no. 1302.1",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10398804.129533457,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0013696892030215,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "730840",
      "hs_description": "Iron or steel: structures and parts thereof, props and similar equipment for scaffolding, shuttering or pit-propping",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 18725458.33226044,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 27.480887055186887,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.005165152944241,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "120991",
      "hs_description": "Seed: vegetable seed, of a kind used for sowing",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 59857174.04057337,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4927013285727668,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
    "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
    "distance_km": 2913,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 1,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 1,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662,
    "importer_population": 60041.996,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 40,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.2,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 110347.079517,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2006.832203582084,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 11.33147539878788,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.33147539878788,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-ZAF/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-ZAF/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-ZAF/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-ZAF/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-ZAF/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}