{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:07.938Z", "seo": { "title": "Kenya exports to Malawi: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Kenya to Malawi, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "KEN", "country_name": "Kenya" }, "importer": { "iso3": "MWI", "country_name": "Malawi" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "all_history_lane_count": 17, "current_lane_count": 12, "current_product_count": 12, "first_observed_last_year": 2003, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 19833714.84842376, "attention_trade_usd": 17605060.009827252, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 19520381.43272041, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 1038858.7378000846, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 19612548.897757724, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 19833714.84842376, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 2, "high_volatility_lane_count": 10, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 7, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 8, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 2.0280720283607856, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 6.192026746795133, "product_concentration_hhi": 4392.2978206329035, "top1_product_share_pct": 58.978775810968244, "top3_product_share_pct": 92.92381187579478, "top_product_hs6": "300490", "top_product_trade_usd": 11697682.215438569, "top_product_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale", "top_attention_product_hs6": "300490", "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "distance_km": 1450.1751708984375, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 1, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.00279999990016222, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 24.05320520468687, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 24.51609122666666, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0, "tariff_advantage_pp": 24.51609122666666, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 37, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 12626.718073999999, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 643, "buyer_population_latest": 19647.68, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 0.4742394112035031, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -2.0937742938528903, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 2.622931980611698, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 16.302, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 4.328, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend weakened", "attention_trade_share_pct": 88.76330099717237, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "buyer_macro_weakness" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 12626.718073999999, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 643, "buyer_population_2024": 19647.68 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 3735658.0201848964, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 4429399.220204617, "yoy_growth_pct": 18.57078983866365, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 5326422.366032289, "yoy_growth_pct": 20.25157591882707, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 5854099.150872944, "yoy_growth_pct": 9.906776980469289, "cagr_3y_pct": 16.153148710579067 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 6172350.529001588, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.436385170913738, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.695390883788793 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 2392960.791874568, "yoy_growth_pct": -61.23096410952469, "cagr_3y_pct": -23.410953908084597 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 4742945.751655863, "yoy_growth_pct": 98.2040728690917, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.775650595492921 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 7001785.569475163, "yoy_growth_pct": 47.62525097468575, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.292419178378992 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 11885026.950402789, "yoy_growth_pct": 69.74280106800903, "cagr_3y_pct": 70.61669669485934 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 16327162.405549213, "yoy_growth_pct": 37.375897199760914, "cagr_3y_pct": 50.99208601539325 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 18639423.486094497, "yoy_growth_pct": 14.162051084635507, "cagr_3y_pct": 38.59297684180485 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 25423786.033728648, "yoy_growth_pct": 36.397920529545694, "cagr_3y_pct": 28.84869312847553 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 37001250.277418226, "yoy_growth_pct": 45.537923534796306, "cagr_3y_pct": 31.351558116919254 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 58680062.17064014, "yoy_growth_pct": 58.58940368415724, "cagr_3y_pct": 46.56131846093692 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 43597982.00038919, "yoy_growth_pct": -25.702222547741414, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.694828725357418 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 52135501.60721778, "yoy_growth_pct": 19.582373346436952, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.108631803797598 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 57104165.58127421, "yoy_growth_pct": 9.530288998636106, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.9033268109711057 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 54309840.73297236, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.893381804738562, "cagr_3y_pct": 7.597962411730053 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 38636040.10187147, "yoy_growth_pct": -28.859964270867543, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.506021108769303 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 42201598.45514121, "yoy_growth_pct": 9.228581251775413, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.589187881375627 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 29558798.1938699, "yoy_growth_pct": -29.95810756957501, "cagr_3y_pct": -18.35378033522853 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 26722142.195013158, "yoy_growth_pct": -9.596655385823594, "cagr_3y_pct": -11.564584458557704 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 27222940.919115257, "yoy_growth_pct": 1.8740964719346387, "cagr_3y_pct": -13.595695269198549 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 30479850.45194663, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.96384160884123, "cagr_3y_pct": 1.0280614639070373 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 33499496.921224464, "yoy_growth_pct": 9.907025213389709, "cagr_3y_pct": 7.825712883032265 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 37027039.15072722, "yoy_growth_pct": 10.530134938437818, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.796994947551553 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 45742243.69081767, "yoy_growth_pct": 23.537406014596996, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.490172701376668 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 39181435.74674714, "yoy_growth_pct": -14.342995477914322, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.361194822598758 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 52729744.164058134, "yoy_growth_pct": 34.57838682809313, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.506831250339289 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "export_value_usd": 48875911.82592586, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.308649793827637, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.2333212182957363 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "hs_code": "300490", "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 82589793.0841659, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2878135527400412, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "hs_code": "961900", "hs_description": "Sanitary towels (pads) and tampons, napkins and napkin liners for babies and similar articles, of any material", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12346796.208755337, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 3.619654303756955, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "hs_code": "210690", "hs_description": "Food preparations: n.e.s. in item no. 2106.10", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12826116.264660442, "current_below_peak_pct": 35.98750350716733, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8891843083708844, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "hs_code": "340120", "hs_description": "Soap: in forms n.e.c. in item no. 3401.11", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14954938.315608654, "current_below_peak_pct": 88.74751962350587, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.349230412303359, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "hs_code": "340220", "hs_description": "Washing and cleaning preparations: surface-active, whether or not containing soap (excluding those of heading no. 3401), put up for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 22531271.379465293, "current_below_peak_pct": 92.46995826720932, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9185148338258691, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "hs_code": "300220", "hs_description": "Vaccines: for human medicine", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 28403450.65000706, "current_below_peak_pct": 74.5074167300261, "lane_volatility_cv": 3.015499944737716, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "hs_code": "481910", "hs_description": "Paper and paperboard: cartons, boxes and cases, of corrugated paper or paperboard", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 18830466.136344902, "current_below_peak_pct": 5.878551224649461, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.144010180220242, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "hs_code": "382200", "hs_description": "Reagents: diagnostic or laboratory reagents on a backing and prepared diagnostic or laboratory reagents whether or not on a backing, other than those of heading no. 3002 or 3006: certified reference material", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 38993706.88628694, "current_below_peak_pct": 21.14165971977125, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7949495943087077, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "hs_code": "851762", "hs_description": "Communication apparatus (excluding telephone sets or base stations): machines for the reception, conversion and transmission or regeneration of voice, images or other data, including switching and routing apparatus", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 19081388.476474375, "current_below_peak_pct": 92.61905418636212, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.160831514633218, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "hs_code": "901890", "hs_description": "Medical, surgical or dental instruments and appliances: n.e.c. in heading no. 9018", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10770607.976275746, "current_below_peak_pct": 84.55605548198005, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4756120350285704, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "MWI", "distance_km": 1442, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 1, "shares_ethnic_language": 1, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 12626.718073999999, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 642.6569485048616, "importer_population": 19647.68, "importer_biz_entry_days": 37, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 32.6, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 110347.079517, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2006.832203582084, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 24.05320520468687, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 24.51609122666666, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0, "tariff_advantage_pp": 24.51609122666666 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-MWI/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-MWI/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-MWI/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-MWI/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-MWI/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }