{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:07.984Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Kenya exports to Madagascar: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Kenya to Madagascar, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "KEN",
    "country_name": "Kenya"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "MDG",
    "country_name": "Madagascar"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
    "importer_iso3": "MDG",
    "all_history_lane_count": 21,
    "current_lane_count": 7,
    "current_product_count": 7,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1997,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 4062331.650744484,
    "attention_trade_usd": 3000533.2455232455,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 3914156.055940965,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 81607.19732914784,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 3982610.142412679,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 1,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 5,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 3,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 4,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.2637488941241997,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 9.816850379271054,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 5887.188142499416,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 73.86234073166705,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 97.56584902239722,
    "top_product_hs6": "151190",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 3000533.2455232455,
    "top_product_description": "Vegetable oils: palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "151190",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 2276.903564453125,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 7.83073692212121,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 8.449328033131314,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 8.449328033131314,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 14637.400396,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 515,
    "buyer_population_latest": 28427.334,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 4.3132742329127005,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 1.745400205779224,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 2.5238232116046477,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.479999999999997,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 10.228,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 73.86234073166705,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 14637.400396,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 515,
    "buyer_population_2024": 28427.334
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 1323774.5647845536,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 1499350.7861212457,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.263302227390007,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 2319558.558002917,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 54.70419460702141,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 3375868.423219485,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 45.53926270031419,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 36.62300281010922
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 851115.8954115338,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -74.78823850012955,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.200353382328693
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 1415979.2798793884,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 66.36738751010289,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -15.169794485903488
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 5887967.916756773,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 315.82302795124974,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.372322821213373
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 6437789.679864897,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.338056369895753,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 96.29806908931677
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 7512665.302082645,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.696345728403863,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 74.41307842388993
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 5100636.2405541185,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -32.106169575528256,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.672184908196641
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 5715716.116661828,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.058885344877869,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.887924584120761
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 10679399.284599937,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 86.84271693390309,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.439160519154546
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 8513031.775286665,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -20.285480967429027,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.6187384113937
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 6597541.326772954,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -22.500684821527162,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.898792642520511
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 10256483.949322281,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 55.45918458594969,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.337853418889634
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 8296118.926998107,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -19.113421636600037,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.856654067059448
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 7027262.884939164,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.29457392335225,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.1256170835396215
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 5175359.118382522,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -26.353130612569565,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -20.387609959100285
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 2965552.0782105173,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -42.698622252568356,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -29.029663895502367
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 4847298.474081618,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 63.4534935230876,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.643632280925154
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 5488951.1286330875,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.237325037489867,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.9803013683765913
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 2077739.3173100795,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -62.14687890967798,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.183190628338401
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 3129452.4077147553,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 50.61814452095288,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.571655112888525
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 5747884.795088619,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 83.67062496042055,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.5483560296621457
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 7255407.460270646,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 26.227433550341097,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 51.71327485547812
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 4330072.750986451,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -40.31937179686766,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.431749042757744
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 4639427.8954076925,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 7.144340573741292,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.89233010793836
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 12545993.400672419,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 170.42113130136127,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.0275890045543
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 7255010.264789481,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -42.17269184598297,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.772057364090912
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "export_value_usd": 9785960.20816987,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 34.88554600210245,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 28.246741304568324
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "hs_code": "151190",
      "hs_description": "Vegetable oils: palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 133740523.97074105,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 2.6631611285773045,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2628190745254253,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "hs_code": "340120",
      "hs_description": "Soap: in forms n.e.c. in item no. 3401.11",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11203877.079689028,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 28.903186497066702,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2844892534719214,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "hs_code": "300490",
      "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 83207594.35258786,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 3.0942161597050752,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.975986601547542,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "hs_code": "210690",
      "hs_description": "Food preparations: n.e.s. in item no. 2106.10",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 22593766.500091463,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 95.78564665696663,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.0866525083250838,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "hs_code": "390210",
      "hs_description": "Propylene, other olefin polymers: polypropylene in primary forms",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11539405.656688804,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 65.22814883081072,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.038635943617251,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "hs_code": "392330",
      "hs_description": "Plastics: carboys, bottles, flasks and similar articles, for the conveyance or packing of goods",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12848906.687897533,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 72.30047300607751,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.366910738550485,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "MDG",
      "hs_code": "390120",
      "hs_description": "Ethylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific gravity of 0.94 or more",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11545856.983254133,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 43.62574080121382,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8777431110849866,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
    "importer_iso3": "MDG",
    "distance_km": 2274,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 14637.400396000001,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 514.9058436503402,
    "importer_population": 28427.334,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 8,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 30.2,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 110347.079517,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2006.832203582084,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 7.83073692212121,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 8.449328033131314,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 8.449328033131314
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-MDG/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-MDG/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-MDG/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-MDG/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-MDG/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}