{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:03.667Z", "seo": { "title": "Kenya exports to Japan: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Kenya to Japan, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "KEN", "country_name": "Kenya" }, "importer": { "iso3": "JPN", "country_name": "Japan" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "all_history_lane_count": 56, "current_lane_count": 25, "current_product_count": 25, "first_observed_last_year": 1995, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 71506280.80779304, "attention_trade_usd": 67850054.96246919, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 18034789.059540052, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 4851977.433530146, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 2110386.7753048483, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 12790428.796998905, "access_friction_trade_usd": 71506280.80779304, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 71506280.80779304, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 8, "high_volatility_lane_count": 7, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 11, "declining_demand_lane_count": 2, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 10, "access_friction_lane_count": 25, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.7431367784999412, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 13.61411584599944, "product_concentration_hhi": 2006.9657167104185, "top1_product_share_pct": 34.31568270079616, "top3_product_share_pct": 67.93951513712138, "top_product_hs6": "261400", "top_product_trade_usd": 24537868.433142558, "top_product_description": "Titanium ores and concentrates", "top_attention_product_hs6": "261400", "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened", "distance_km": 11265.9658203125, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.00839999970048666, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.9783297279095349, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.060224438230304, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.7090602010402018, "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.351164237190102, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 11.1, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 4937421.880462, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 39285, "buyer_population_latest": 125681.595, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -4.67885267787802, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -4.27363742210356, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.4233058113377264, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 24.977999999999998, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 24.869999999999997, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted", "attention_trade_share_pct": 94.88684657624457, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "declining_buyer_demand", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "market_access_friction", "buyer_macro_weakness" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 4937421.880462, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 39285, "buyer_population_2024": 125681.595 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 23379219.691611536, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 25793323.723286368, "yoy_growth_pct": 10.325853743275326, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 21655621.944102384, "yoy_growth_pct": -16.04175492687063, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 21657115.346247215, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.0068961406358480914, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.5182016364849624 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 22757999.414306257, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.083244238479834, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.087416120436604 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 20253760.582622703, "yoy_growth_pct": -11.003774040477943, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.2061215633772946 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 21311412.118597522, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.222000781831415, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.5349422078485655 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 20050862.950804867, "yoy_growth_pct": -5.9149021227581144, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.133619878511707 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 21897684.60631991, "yoy_growth_pct": 9.210684148838144, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.6354777279088193 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 30104518.560152847, "yoy_growth_pct": 37.47809004183189, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.203521190898691 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 29683208.256264336, "yoy_growth_pct": -1.3994919169581732, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.970535847912213 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 23967148.74268222, "yoy_growth_pct": -19.256879055099454, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.055867859976158 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 25966141.732089408, "yoy_growth_pct": 8.340554026133518, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.809871661450349 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 35805988.20940551, "yoy_growth_pct": 37.894911684764665, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.450639569093131 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 40041677.02960346, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.82955430646464, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.658438547708677 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 37319457.04744786, "yoy_growth_pct": -6.7984664581930865, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.852009770462146 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 43335498.6426135, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.12038885645324, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.568628830976553 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 44764591.421869665, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.2977416298860307, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.7864814566137994 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 43152470.34200445, "yoy_growth_pct": -3.6013309373748026, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.959909771754778 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 52076256.40104721, "yoy_growth_pct": 20.67966442782392, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.316005956930604 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 58801014.500669286, "yoy_growth_pct": 12.913290171693003, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.517468887918534 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 51211449.39509936, "yoy_growth_pct": -12.907200955663, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.873466979798381 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 54077777.0209558, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.597044527567574, "cagr_3y_pct": 1.2650756237240213 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 59549956.09744864, "yoy_growth_pct": 10.11909027690303, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.4227728533531483 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 69300893.92480375, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.374382898617924, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.609031526610924 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 69097682.71315223, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.293230289167723, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.512945128163762 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 79825348.28753981, "yoy_growth_pct": 15.525362288807475, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.26045800801889 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 69063333.60591891, "yoy_growth_pct": -13.481951425823935, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.11439596817843789 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 92894984.67255297, "yoy_growth_pct": 34.50695155061503, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.367937856056075 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "export_value_usd": 74968209.64593177, "yoy_growth_pct": -19.297893303725257, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.0708227611158203 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "hs_code": "261400", "hs_description": "Titanium ores and concentrates", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 280213279.31363803, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5202349433644563, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "hs_code": "740400", "hs_description": "Copper: waste and scrap", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1771069345.7516634, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2821922323716533, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "hs_code": "090240", "hs_description": "Tea, black: (fermented) and partly fermented tea, in immediate packings of a content exceeding 3kg", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 84569044.98716927, "current_below_peak_pct": 21.927134954961023, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5044860544477372, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "hs_code": "060311", "hs_description": "Flowers, cut: roses, flowers and buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes, fresh", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11534025.768824935, "current_below_peak_pct": 15.0116340144341, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7379031070105115, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "hs_code": "090111", "hs_description": "Coffee: not roasted or decaffeinated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1499516097.5154953, "current_below_peak_pct": 42.337565923974644, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4836570922078581, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "hs_code": "080262", "hs_description": "Nuts, edible: macadamia, fresh or dried, shelled", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 31314764.36372923, "current_below_peak_pct": 52.603240259914195, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6517421073220998, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "hs_code": "060420", "hs_description": "Foliage, branches and other parts of plants, without flowers or flower buds, and grasses, mosses and lichens: suitable for bouquets or for ornamental purposes, fresh", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 50150816.81018042, "current_below_peak_pct": 21.14377839350321, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.49831217491060625, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "hs_code": "060319", "hs_description": "Flowers, cut: flowers and buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes, fresh, other than roses, carnations, orchids, or chrysanthemums", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 25455176.601215955, "current_below_peak_pct": 31.943616328091455, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8911522148670558, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer demand is declining in both recent and longer-term observations", "risk_driver_labels": [ "declining_buyer_demand", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "hs_code": "261790", "hs_description": "Ores and concentrates n.e.c. in chapter 26: other than antimony", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 23300626.67686937, "current_below_peak_pct": 97.78302851708301, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6229319605587655, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "hs_code": "090230", "hs_description": "Tea, black: (fermented) and partly fermented tea, in immediate packings of a content not exceeding 3kg", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 44371384.64997127, "current_below_peak_pct": 77.81784949745034, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0649646819712448, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "KEN", "importer_iso3": "JPN", "distance_km": 11259, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 4937421.880461999, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 39285.162481125415, "importer_population": 125681.595, "importer_biz_entry_days": 11.1, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 7.5, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 110347.079517, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2006.832203582084, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.9783297279095349, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.060224438230304, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.7090602010402018, "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.351164237190102 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-JPN/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-JPN/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-JPN/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-JPN/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-JPN/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }