{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:10.515Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Kenya exports to Armenia: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Kenya to Armenia, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "KEN",
    "country_name": "Kenya"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "ARM",
    "country_name": "Armenia"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
    "importer_iso3": "ARM",
    "all_history_lane_count": 2,
    "current_lane_count": 1,
    "current_product_count": 1,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2003,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 42353.8070725857,
    "attention_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 42353.8070725857,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 0,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 42353.8070725857,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 0,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 1,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 0,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 1,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.8566420465036486,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 0,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 10000,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 100,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 100,
    "top_product_hs6": "090111",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 42353.8070725857,
    "top_product_description": "Coffee: not roasted or decaffeinated",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "",
    "distance_km": 4680.5791015625,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 4.438762411226053,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.516500222720307,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 7.320322543103448,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": -2.8038223203831416,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 4,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 13861.183874,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 4670,
    "buyer_population_latest": 2968.128,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 13.766456496846002,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 13.22885175771702,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.47479483434074155,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 26.128000000000004,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 4.422,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Stable",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 13861.183874,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 4670,
    "buyer_population_2024": 2968.128
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 56854.07312089565,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 13336.739021478705,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -76.54215733476263,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 27116.050416117254,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 103.31844517949315,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 36177.62004910913,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.41773412401481,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.987916101560637
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 18925.708163471314,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -47.68669653288219,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.374428321417685
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 70683.40012370801,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 273.47823137278795,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 37.62489477054971
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 968716.3843586252,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1270.5005456206213,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 199.1705803875237
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 2438761.908749991,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 151.75190056939778,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 405.0942463563385
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 492663.2239104345,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -79.7986338009128,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 91.01944138071568
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 515406.51738668187,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.616397647002368,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -18.9690208293392
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 2600733.6569796284,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 404.5985196629629,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.1665727668396917
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 359202.4680196234,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -86.1884177545199,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.995742015953779
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 7762.039592336484,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -97.83909068466856,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -75.30502167994251
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 14471.866870379372,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 86.4441259056131,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -82.27948958931128
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 80711.55746672986,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 457.71351539951013,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -39.20533468247014
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 71720.25835551138,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -11.140039163442971,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 109.84018665796951
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 46142.98791532947,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -35.66254643617916,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 47.18392655852974
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 39741.69139042994,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -13.872739530100752,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -21.03459395030801
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 35650.26054581369,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.295059675294793,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -20.785086139809007
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 327593.92786185024,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 818.9103329016726,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 92.19557155165734
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 683141.6395977046,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 108.53305922257283,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 158.08026959884302
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "export_value_usd": 615985.1654619134,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.830534437241878,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 158.52498110016708
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
      "importer_iso3": "ARM",
      "hs_code": "090111",
      "hs_description": "Coffee: not roasted or decaffeinated",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 24873318.63642399,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8566420465036486,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "KEN",
    "importer_iso3": "ARM",
    "distance_km": 4658,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 13861.183874,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 4670.008798138086,
    "importer_population": 2968.128,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 4,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.8,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 110347.079517,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2006.832203582084,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 4.438762411226053,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.516500222720307,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 7.320322543103448,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": -2.8038223203831416
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-ARM/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-ARM/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-ARM/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-ARM/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KEN-ARM/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}