{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:03.671Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Kazakhstan exports to Lithuania: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Kazakhstan to Lithuania, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "KAZ",
    "country_name": "Kazakhstan"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "LTU",
    "country_name": "Lithuania"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
    "importer_iso3": "LTU",
    "all_history_lane_count": 106,
    "current_lane_count": 28,
    "current_product_count": 28,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 64327618.643756025,
    "attention_trade_usd": 53405834.81825253,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 45374555.759815946,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 4664827.547853148,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 53217837.83155294,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 6,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 15,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 11,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 16,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.4667575360846152,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 22.233626611109532,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 2180.6435471206582,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 38.16163429804922,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 71.31278432314433,
    "top_product_hs6": "720421",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 24548470.5794739,
    "top_product_description": "Ferrous waste and scrap: of stainless steel",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "720421",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 3881.111083984375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.8279573917388916,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 3.6814876422030656,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 3.6814876422030656,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 5.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 65503.849705,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 23433,
    "buyer_population_latest": 2795.321,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 9.014668841947326,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 8.425656534698645,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.5432407108000303,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 23.136,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 21.744,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 83.02162577167994,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 65503.849705,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 23433,
    "buyer_population_2024": 2795.321
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 86355256.15316825,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 83402339.62543468,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.4194983134506307,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 30349316.047468465,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -63.610953621002466,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 9355909.437294776,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -69.17258556119856,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -52.32773965306015
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 33237833.807804663,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 255.26032002096048,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -26.410109042109088
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 17332282.64844034,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -47.85375380157747,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.03359258330126
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 6252006.164719335,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -63.92854714216234,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.573224127308457
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 69288284.0709964,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1008.2568098220501,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 27.744545275129372
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 5056048.932254952,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -92.70288043636027,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -33.678882527375045
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 12182204.471575586,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 140.9431679717236,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.901837915955415
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 39162518.33348391,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 221.47316542634607,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.31940340482778
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 30051088.069864675,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -23.26569038801821,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 81.14081230862344
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 53939693.52822132,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 79.49331286381012,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 64.20795655222832
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 113321186.32966699,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 110.0886729554316,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 42.49955246401813
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 87256014.34436122,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -23.001146413591698,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 42.66312188488717
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 65296611.09190955,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -25.166635695492047,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.576320523816825
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 137142359.57997018,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 110.02982740855067,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.566368967935299
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 170315512.4213668,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 24.188845038831897,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.973983014151436
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 151121446.15315115,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -11.26971113513655,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 32.275218116992164
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 503104762.2393656,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 232.91420579015875,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 54.22766033135922
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 211063966.28607833,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -58.04771051130322,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.412122016807277
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 283966357.2921125,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 34.540425013723805,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.399555832367724
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 804170169.5054773,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 183.1920573880651,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.922073960519192
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 823878432.9266213,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.450757833166528,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 57.45254316372892
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 553921984.2668452,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -32.76653907553128,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.947403958479185
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 518258825.0928937,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.43830001099418,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.622708408754514
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 836375542.9639226,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 61.3818236117849,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.503085919555879
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 489739927.08590734,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -41.44497275107045,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.021865717309625
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 110377079.46165194,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -77.46210317822622,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -40.28124696334847
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "export_value_usd": 91078820.69990979,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -17.4839367519657,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -52.246483496106855
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "hs_code": "720421",
      "hs_description": "Ferrous waste and scrap: of stainless steel",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 31171528.080028243,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.895934778233918,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "hs_code": "030489",
      "hs_description": "Fish fillets: frozen, of fish n.e.c. in heading 0304.8",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 19722682.519923255,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 48.76678258497666,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6679857323983551,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "hs_code": "270119",
      "hs_description": "Coal: (other than anthracite and bituminous), whether or not pulverised but not agglomerated",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12691864.945548361,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.136370148176884,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "hs_code": "310230",
      "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, ammonium nitrate, whether or not in aqueous solution",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 51887764.390996054,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 44.343688867894514,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0142656235401837,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "hs_code": "711299",
      "hs_description": "Waste and scrap of precious metals: waste and scrap of precious metals including metal clad with precious metals, other than that of gold and platinum and excluding ash which contains precious metal or precious metal compounds",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 23719658.844513558,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 82.08154238908892,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.453723339160703,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "hs_code": "740321",
      "hs_description": "Copper: copper-zinc base alloys (brass) unwrought",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 68940412.4549953,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 43.33978825436841,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8278505970130329,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "hs_code": "220720",
      "hs_description": "Ethyl alcohol and other spirits: denatured, of any strength",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11356030.307424404,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 3.243000458450508,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.016482262211798854,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "hs_code": "271119",
      "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, n.e.c. in heading no. 2711",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 38611284.71631059,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0949504195021944,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "hs_code": "730210",
      "hs_description": "Iron or steel, railway or tramway track construction material: rails",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14549303.410117976,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 83.4867068059184,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.471106060004237,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "LTU",
      "hs_code": "854231",
      "hs_description": "Electronic integrated circuits: processors and controllers, whether or not combined with memories, converters, logic circuits, amplifiers, clock and timing circuits, or other circuits",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 120899087.3584711,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3576621599090275,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
    "importer_iso3": "LTU",
    "distance_km": 3888,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": null,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 65503.84970499999,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 23433.3909075201,
    "importer_population": 2795.321,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 5.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.5,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 190814.274226,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 10041.489838593548,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 3.6814876422030656,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 3.6814876422030656,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-LTU/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-LTU/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-LTU/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-LTU/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-LTU/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}