{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:03.592Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Kazakhstan exports to Japan: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Kazakhstan to Japan, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "KAZ",
    "country_name": "Kazakhstan"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "JPN",
    "country_name": "Japan"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
    "importer_iso3": "JPN",
    "all_history_lane_count": 51,
    "current_lane_count": 20,
    "current_product_count": 20,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 601651058.8669051,
    "attention_trade_usd": 598458990.9654486,
    "critical_trade_usd": 59512290.965686776,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 134815486.1476088,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 62767585.27598926,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 506830179.7008993,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 601651058.8669051,
    "critical_lane_count": 2,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 8,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 7,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 9,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 16,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.9336691243232982,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 32.95036898476288,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 4627.569989743119,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 66.51430765055329,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 83.15468918957268,
    "top_product_hs6": "720241",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 400184036.27754474,
    "top_product_description": "Ferro-alloys: ferro-chromium, containing by weight more than 4% of carbon",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "720241",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
    "distance_km": 5334.9462890625,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 2.240406397827203,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 3.1693676000306508,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.6363991518816092,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 1.5329684481490418,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 11.1,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 4937421.880462,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 39285,
    "buyer_population_latest": 125681.595,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -4.67885267787802,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -4.27363742210356,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.4233058113377264,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 24.977999999999998,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 24.869999999999997,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 99.46944863564802,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 9.891496090402768,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 4937421.880462,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 39285,
    "buyer_population_2024": 125681.595
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 40720396.50318325,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 110733437.8404096,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 171.93605011128318,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 158457315.49212915,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 43.097982490618406,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 92542787.11557555,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -41.59765560323889,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 31.475104786304176
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 64998647.981175676,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -29.763680123444235,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -16.271139657411403
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 68607261.24849927,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.5518281985937445,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -24.348200483603378
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 84717014.15382521,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 23.48111936282593,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.9022077678622527
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 77937511.80357234,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.00252749458682,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.238208322824557
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 110418773.42362653,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 41.67603105153965,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.190105487937203
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 163672116.11498466,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 48.228522234212214,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.54740566948974
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 241897369.03069037,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 47.79387886739978,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 45.868506399446595
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 270612689.95854455,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.870869469527378,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 34.82437423602842
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 379135613.5018237,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 40.102673514647044,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 32.314252580425084
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 800765950.6014756,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 111.20831757410828,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 49.03610243954566
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 282199353.94168705,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -64.75882200913763,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.4073154043566571
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 554009906.3228595,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 96.31863028195973,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.47694878444614
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 877963923.807676,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 58.47440881247099,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.1154380012009764
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 836615372.0768749,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.709595760093988,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 43.655836375731695
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 615213256.0702927,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -26.464026767396998,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.5545974438749406
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 717957884.4426532,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.700652555610908,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.486545756244078
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 804474047.1112173,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.05031166079138,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.2973682411432153
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 549697735.2201427,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -31.66992307656783,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.683782008430969
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 1074677363.8509626,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 95.503327555202,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.391312772081832
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 1485534746.785967,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 38.230765507403255,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.684658625374322
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 947477701.1116937,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -36.21975499653497,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 19.898849735574096
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 684188340.2757868,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -27.788449324663212,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.97344680317275
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 616262478.4722673,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.927947877062548,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -25.419097013608194
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 787799177.2003083,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 27.83500614109844,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.966592260536697
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 624759471.7335343,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -20.6955922505767,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.983472317604152
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "export_value_usd": 609334532.3458207,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.468940461985114,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.37614224296413923
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "720241",
      "hs_description": "Ferro-alloys: ferro-chromium, containing by weight more than 4% of carbon",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 704490061.4486339,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 38.90566060447617,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6898369125303531,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "760120",
      "hs_description": "Aluminium: unwrought, alloys",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2428015655.202965,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.37861805971874,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "720249",
      "hs_description": "Ferro-alloys: ferro-chromium, containing by weight 4% or less of carbon",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 74594475.2414384,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 54.40283262531549,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.896534844164422,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "270112",
      "hs_description": "Coal: bituminous, whether or not pulverised, but not agglomerated",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 24983858671.53478,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1617860177054604,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "720221",
      "hs_description": "Ferro-alloys: ferro-silicon, containing by weight more than 55% of silicon",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 516553928.9465876,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.063016891137523,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "720230",
      "hs_description": "Ferro-alloys: ferro-silico-manganese",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 242998357.37900925,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 77.38441264262197,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8018082592176481,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "810320",
      "hs_description": "Tantalum: unwrought, including bars and rods obtained simply by sintering, powders",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 28835438.279385835,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 39.87600973825457,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0181312219639005,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "810390",
      "hs_description": "Tantalum: articles n.e.s. in heading no. 8103",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 23672849.26514296,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.040011028843716,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "281990",
      "hs_description": "Chromium oxides and hydroxides: excluding chromium trioxide",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14659844.87291899,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 23.799247437725114,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6801599402447326,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "JPN",
      "hs_code": "790700",
      "hs_description": "Zinc: articles n.e.c. in chapter 79",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 56989642.480576254,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 73.70013892980076,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.558984196254821,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
    "importer_iso3": "JPN",
    "distance_km": 5340,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 4937421.880461999,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 39285.162481125415,
    "importer_population": 125681.595,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 11.1,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 7.5,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 190814.274226,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 10041.489838593548,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 2.240406397827203,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 3.1693676000306508,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.6363991518816092,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 1.5329684481490418
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-JPN/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-JPN/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-JPN/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-JPN/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-JPN/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}