{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:03.614Z", "seo": { "title": "Kazakhstan exports to Iran: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Kazakhstan to Iran, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "KAZ", "country_name": "Kazakhstan" }, "importer": { "iso3": "IRN", "country_name": "Iran" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "all_history_lane_count": 94, "current_lane_count": 42, "current_product_count": 42, "first_observed_last_year": 1995, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 138575832.0251379, "attention_trade_usd": 49015671.77938296, "critical_trade_usd": 28655149.212953307, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 129235224.40070535, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 35897969.341851234, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 56535929.59561813, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 1, "high_attention_lane_count": 5, "high_volatility_lane_count": 21, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 9, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 33, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.0397048293926567, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 48.776525250835604, "product_concentration_hhi": 3807.4417926599467, "top1_product_share_pct": 57.69624800027603, "top3_product_share_pct": 82.88652903408416, "top_product_hs6": "100390", "top_product_trade_usd": 79953055.7136695, "top_product_description": "Cereals: barley, other than seed", "top_attention_product_hs6": "100199", "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "distance_km": 2338.088134765625, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 43.96147324099617, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 43.96147324099617, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 72.5, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 231547.57124000002, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 2757, "buyer_population_latest": 85028.763, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 6.431909337919595, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.360726244823533, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.0166815769729887, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 39.459999999999994, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 40.714000000000006, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 35.37101027146742, "critical_trade_share_pct": 20.678316553607424, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 231547.57124000002, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 2757, "buyer_population_2024": 85028.763 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 105368165.55852847, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 121530591.7432762, "yoy_growth_pct": 15.339003103143177, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 93579629.51475967, "yoy_growth_pct": -22.99911637685491, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 76319565.7335583, "yoy_growth_pct": -18.444253167810487, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.193282315029128 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 107028186.40105718, "yoy_growth_pct": 40.236891251067576, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.1473366561613485 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 240254256.34637332, "yoy_growth_pct": 124.47755532929423, "cagr_3y_pct": 36.92936357542826 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 221400387.2317494, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.847465181820712, "cagr_3y_pct": 42.6201301836483 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 319191472.92397815, "yoy_growth_pct": 44.16933814567658, "cagr_3y_pct": 43.94095226058139 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 447634184.32687056, "yoy_growth_pct": 40.24001964284416, "cagr_3y_pct": 23.050689469533793 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 710060408.7878176, "yoy_growth_pct": 58.62515278085168, "cagr_3y_pct": 47.47066568620764 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 660930398.7019415, "yoy_growth_pct": -6.919131031365144, "cagr_3y_pct": 27.45830795086308 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 1996958430.0475886, "yoy_growth_pct": 202.14352887529282, "cagr_3y_pct": 64.61974573457083 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 1705982862.9188468, "yoy_growth_pct": -14.570937619457991, "cagr_3y_pct": 33.934703943948485 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 1638121079.954936, "yoy_growth_pct": -3.9778701438889508, "cagr_3y_pct": 35.330833699889894 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 831820081.1875012, "yoy_growth_pct": -49.221086806942004, "cagr_3y_pct": -25.317280259004704 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 865445749.8951589, "yoy_growth_pct": 4.042420887417619, "cagr_3y_pct": -20.245524778958668 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 792638711.582662, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.412663453638414, "cagr_3y_pct": -21.49275088751287 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 512262338.0979227, "yoy_growth_pct": -35.37253093845387, "cagr_3y_pct": -14.921267937212557 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 357518459.403517, "yoy_growth_pct": -30.20793589257098, "cagr_3y_pct": -25.523451756315897 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 594872797.1326375, "yoy_growth_pct": 66.38939374630388, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.123914766148932 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 330441240.2832077, "yoy_growth_pct": -44.45178164542462, "cagr_3y_pct": -13.595981997400342 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 379607367.61226666, "yoy_growth_pct": 14.878931965913411, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.0184500020175467 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 298236823.94142956, "yoy_growth_pct": -21.435448996329676, "cagr_3y_pct": -20.55881409765047 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 274372866.5763812, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.00168035914135, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.0098580068698055 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 192229118.91848758, "yoy_growth_pct": -29.93872852038234, "cagr_3y_pct": -20.293296591498766 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 82801229.23559083, "yoy_growth_pct": -56.92576145516139, "cagr_3y_pct": -34.763321724751236 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 199853230.60498953, "yoy_growth_pct": 141.3650527292966, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.024692944159785 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 260317840.95864257, "yoy_growth_pct": 30.25450735553108, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.635606102813423 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 120488721.10564718, "yoy_growth_pct": -53.71476627881623, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.319122669482187 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "export_value_usd": 150508151.09856874, "yoy_growth_pct": 24.914722073114092, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.019228358685282 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "hs_code": "100390", "hs_description": "Cereals: barley, other than seed", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 544863626.7259259, "current_below_peak_pct": 48.87610815001427, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0029355491773948, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "hs_code": "100199", "hs_description": "Cereals: wheat and meslin, other than durum wheat, other than seed", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1673499599.121892, "current_below_peak_pct": 81.83398253946893, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1810100831476997, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "hs_code": "020421", "hs_description": "Meat: of sheep, carcasses and half-carcasses (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses of lamb), fresh or chilled", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 23824436.84750279, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0548494713956365, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "hs_code": "151211", "hs_description": "Vegetable oils: sunflower seed or safflower oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 754373723.2961314, "current_below_peak_pct": 58.707982872089836, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1317425909653065, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "hs_code": "100590", "hs_description": "Cereals: maize (corn), other than seed", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 3131836459.550966, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4128999416803198, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "hs_code": "870710", "hs_description": "Vehicles: bodies (including cabs) for the motor vehicles of heading no. 8703", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 995995964.1371303, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.019341531420710215, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "hs_code": "841590", "hs_description": "Air conditioning machines: with motor driven fan and elements for temperature control, parts thereof", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 55803852.01211921, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6198982313173307, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "hs_code": "870840", "hs_description": "Vehicles: parts, gear boxes", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 327478284.5504963, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.120653328898221, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "hs_code": "071340", "hs_description": "Vegetables, leguminous: lentils, shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 145200062.52240375, "current_below_peak_pct": 75.92210676186478, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1534745672202034, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "hs_code": "870899", "hs_description": "Vehicle parts and accessories: n.e.c. in heading no. 8708", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 274571497.19054466, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.5072232444681672, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "KAZ", "importer_iso3": "IRN", "distance_km": 2337, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 1, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 0, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 231547.57124, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2723.167585538084, "importer_population": 85028.763, "importer_biz_entry_days": 72.5, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1.1, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 190814.274226, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 10041.489838593548, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 43.96147324099617, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 43.96147324099617, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-IRN/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-IRN/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-IRN/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-IRN/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-IRN/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }