{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:03.651Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Kazakhstan exports to Germany: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Kazakhstan to Germany, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "KAZ",
    "country_name": "Kazakhstan"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "DEU",
    "country_name": "Germany"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
    "importer_iso3": "DEU",
    "all_history_lane_count": 183,
    "current_lane_count": 78,
    "current_product_count": 78,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 3956556667.053314,
    "attention_trade_usd": 181012023.7786273,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 231722094.01205292,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 172821510.16459236,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 877248.2192241343,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 70050690.54267855,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 19,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 48,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 29,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 1,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 18,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.6577597008385504,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 4.0745290878077265,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 8376.434627367318,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 91.49027009073242,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 94.20579367080522,
    "top_product_hs6": "270900",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 3619864380.979958,
    "top_product_description": "Oils: petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "720241",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
    "distance_km": 5148.3984375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.15769268572330475,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 2.3908024175287355,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.8834974298850575,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 2.1495134952095096,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.7339839346755475,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 4223116.205969,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 50802,
    "buyer_population_latest": 83129.288,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.422772294996279,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.3176380750794765,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.10175824948728263,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.237999999999996,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 27.802,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 4.574988784716127,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "declining_buyer_demand",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 4223116.205969,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 50802,
    "buyer_population_2024": 83129.288
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 131596365.70312867,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 124961934.95464818,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.041499978386376,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 298059268.1578017,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 138.5200487380216,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 290068916.98373985,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.6807927240267815,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 30.14248626214431
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 455780197.05165297,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 57.12824448446583,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 53.930933630792374
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 762232253.4460887,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 67.23680808793584,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 36.75028191894898
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 829344674.7855307,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.804720744369376,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 41.93122646944203
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 791827264.8160863,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.523741589001751,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.214909347192545
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1024899144.7139553,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.434687368589586,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.373446252029872
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1564582764.5822256,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 52.65724170536736,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.562824476295695
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1904156677.7937195,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 21.703799945806445,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 33.97509576969773
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2472687466.169361,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.857353389342855,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 34.12076819487078
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2784164705.2370024,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.596708776551345,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.180329010355447
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 3692938136.6051702,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 32.640792754062595,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.706699162331034
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2081662139.212043,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -43.631275092908396,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.576446893910414
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 4026119983.4995027,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 93.40890664531574,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.082984836365675
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 4345149374.975756,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 7.923991157336374,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.570900532649059
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 3342203427.2504582,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -23.081967066572794,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.095681603313295
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 3237584780.756349,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.130229765223358,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.008166177316366
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 3289536678.0690565,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.6046497877522992,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.859793681115146
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1939576427.9047217,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -41.03800572172843,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -16.588741776392247
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1961043121.236043,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.1067722324564988,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -15.389941005655528
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2551262482.053297,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 30.097214815207106,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.12300060998381
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2709879464.9502254,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.21719576142048,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.792935160888218
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2122992926.6760848,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -21.65729309605734,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.6803013500954265
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 1692498271.739258,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -20.277724411020117,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.785031060910557
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 2532302852.623523,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 49.6192282678823,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.233840181657354
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 4171379446.982187,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 64.72672068668813,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 25.249802558300736
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 3419032632.486647,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.035923704802983,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 26.412980396633845
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 3992404986.027047,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.770016995227934,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.38749339925274
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "270900",
      "hs_description": "Oils: petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 38792530009.57262,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6151291442919106,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "720241",
      "hs_description": "Ferro-alloys: ferro-chromium, containing by weight more than 4% of carbon",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 174817527.44476068,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 82.1293632024586,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0745969909886088,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "280470",
      "hs_description": "Phosphorus",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 86871061.93959698,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 33.71982750335369,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6321867569289218,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "270112",
      "hs_description": "Coal: bituminous, whether or not pulverised, but not agglomerated",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2085112532.5296068,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 50.067306586310714,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0921599651291214,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "030489",
      "hs_description": "Fish fillets: frozen, of fish n.e.c. in heading 0304.8",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 141660075.61364216,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 36.75786073417327,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5940259051045785,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "720249",
      "hs_description": "Ferro-alloys: ferro-chromium, containing by weight 4% or less of carbon",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 65119610.571002886,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 79.43215233387899,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2263576911524472,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "720421",
      "hs_description": "Ferrous waste and scrap: of stainless steel",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 401022112.3940793,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 14.341846450284438,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1075366253816215,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "740311",
      "hs_description": "Copper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodes",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 3670237216.9740987,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 86.27782031697755,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0725339732966064,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "120400",
      "hs_description": "Oil seeds: linseed, whether or not broken",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 112512639.73003566,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 58.24894282126739,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4663776670789596,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "720221",
      "hs_description": "Ferro-alloys: ferro-silicon, containing by weight more than 55% of silicon",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 223091253.8608037,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 70.64655948936736,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8247338584931938,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
    "importer_iso3": "DEU",
    "distance_km": 4699,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 4223116.205968999,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 50801.7848771783,
    "importer_population": 83129.288,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 8,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 6.5,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 190814.274226,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 10041.489838593548,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 2.3908024175287355,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.8834974298850575,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 2.1495134952095096,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.7339839346755475
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-DEU/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-DEU/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-DEU/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-DEU/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-DEU/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}