{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:03.587Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Kazakhstan exports to Afghanistan: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Kazakhstan to Afghanistan, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "KAZ",
    "country_name": "Kazakhstan"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "AFG",
    "country_name": "Afghanistan"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
    "importer_iso3": "AFG",
    "all_history_lane_count": 37,
    "current_lane_count": 21,
    "current_product_count": 21,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2009,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 487228383.2199998,
    "attention_trade_usd": 484581596.2899999,
    "critical_trade_usd": 85161890.04,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 124966226.76,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 88565370.91000001,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 487193611.5099998,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 487228383.2199998,
    "critical_lane_count": 4,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 9,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 13,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 10,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 20,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.9939448756001235,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 40.741526217694535,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 4383.450506613998,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 65.08164438909965,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 77.31210610936708,
    "top_product_hs6": "110100",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 317096243.72999996,
    "top_product_description": "Wheat or meslin flour",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "110100",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
    "distance_km": 1180.1685791015625,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.0018000000854954123,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 5.544544419157089,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.544544419157089,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 20116.137326,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 517,
    "buyer_population_latest": 39835.426,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -1.8172621057140348,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -3.58436239429053,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 2.4121484487080735,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 21.442,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 3.722,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 99.45676667838853,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 17.478844207962858,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 20116.137326,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 517,
    "buyer_population_2024": 39835.426
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 2916694.0000000005,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 5746694.812678651,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 97.02769000377312,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 8637492.545184178,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 50.303658480831494,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 7534992,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -12.76412731376394,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 37.21364747651843
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 11423754.137724256,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 51.6093731449782,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 25.73713812956484
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 57919053.758902304,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 407.0054297443104,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 88.57231129393102
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 16371494.51022147,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -71.73383636692246,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 29.519505337401796
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 28631567.33913766,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 74.88670518908134,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 35.83512654316294
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 62701606.82984693,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 118.99467146577601,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.6799710315035474
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 109450031.00449696,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 74.55697953883545,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 88.38335219744356
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 166854541.20047888,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 52.44814429849121,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 79.95515949390311
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 179460089.10311142,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 7.554812600207694,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 41.9808383435633
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 199525543.75813955,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.18101231048605,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.15958201033972
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 432424969.92405134,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 116.72662145365575,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 37.35914459252585
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 382538011.3772005,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -11.536558250929108,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 28.697142902871576
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 304961090.2621668,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -20.279532702055903,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.190140903790116
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 337104335.505375,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.54011356516844,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.965386807747299
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 254598510.31234127,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -24.474863270252488,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.690717189534585
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 299960408.0681676,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 17.817031882934597,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.5496075248778154
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 334491133.5127722,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.51176105773175,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.2590675331304082
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 377702288.2620393,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.918475385422168,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.050690569862923
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 499152458.5883309,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 32.15499987705472,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.50129405543619
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 702216720.9458697,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 40.68181151142305,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 28.044870555341284
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 610865438.6605136,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -13.008987049227194,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.381227333823766
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 415279408.15900594,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -32.01785829140744,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.947777893292805
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 430147401.5320384,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.5802385287882377,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -15.072427176439696
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 455652156.26244706,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.929305777407801,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.309326920431605
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 916205689.619831,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 101.07568394609191,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 30.18197695573077
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 615511716,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -32.81948333507954,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.68678974195321
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 527786114.18640774,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -14.252466611633475,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.020684207337411
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "hs_code": "110100",
      "hs_description": "Wheat or meslin flour",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 640525900.1890557,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 42.77098637403734,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8953587305274066,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "hs_code": "100199",
      "hs_description": "Cereals: wheat and meslin, other than durum wheat, other than seed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 45713688.95,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 78.10361965438753,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3181530024225543,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "hs_code": "720917",
      "hs_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: in coils, flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, cold-rolled, of a thickness of 0.5mm or more but not exceeding 1mm",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 19896243.964999996,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 6.829757829657271,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3748939712883408,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "hs_code": "151219",
      "hs_description": "Vegetable oils: sunflower seed or safflower oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 31321746.593000002,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4392142307780555,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "hs_code": "310559",
      "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: containing the two fertilizing elements nitrogen and phosphorus, other than nitrates and phosphates",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 25366312.7,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0977283036486933,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "hs_code": "120400",
      "hs_description": "Oil seeds: linseed, whether or not broken",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16188950.91,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 50.78314825452877,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8451414449964748,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "hs_code": "071310",
      "hs_description": "Vegetables, leguminous: peas (pisum sativum), shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 21710047.401999988,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 53.1702366558909,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5556235151624684,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "hs_code": "271112",
      "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, propane",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14715420.25,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 62.94098423940836,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5919883554446125,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "hs_code": "720839",
      "hs_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of less than 3mm",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11553389.18,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3469436199166391,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "hs_code": "721049",
      "hs_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, (not corrugated), plated or coated with zinc (not electrolytically)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14928737.515,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 12.129307400658968,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7066964132949262,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "KAZ",
    "importer_iso3": "AFG",
    "distance_km": 1177,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 20116.137326,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 504.9811021476211,
    "importer_population": 39835.426,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 8.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 6.8,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 190814.274226,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 10041.489838593548,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 5.544544419157089,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.544544419157089,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-AFG/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-AFG/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-AFG/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-AFG/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/KAZ-AFG/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}