{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:54.023Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Japan exports to South Africa: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Japan to South Africa, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "JPN",
    "country_name": "Japan"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "ZAF",
    "country_name": "South Africa"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
    "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
    "all_history_lane_count": 629,
    "current_lane_count": 581,
    "current_product_count": 581,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2001,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 2074582051.7276745,
    "attention_trade_usd": 1975583718.8574026,
    "critical_trade_usd": 556866578.3971336,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 251779058.20039308,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 936929105.9603745,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 1054411.6416920505,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 721481189.7828645,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 2074582051.7276745,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 2074582051.7276745,
    "critical_lane_count": 17,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 201,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 157,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 390,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 2,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 206,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 581,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.656486179883019,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 45.86349269357513,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 234.82047495994743,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 7.517923873218344,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 19.264932392630296,
    "top_product_hs6": "870333",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 155965499.3363378,
    "top_product_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity exceeding 2500cc",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "870333",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
    "distance_km": 14746.3896484375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.03479999676346779,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 11.331475398787878,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.331475398787878,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 40,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 419946.428126,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 6994,
    "buyer_population_latest": 60041.996,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 0.5997022185294298,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -0.829491262325488,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.4411476748953822,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.936,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 19.216,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend weakened",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 95.22803483295212,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 26.842350146304657,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "declining_buyer_demand",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "market_access_friction",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Critical attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 419946.428126,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 6994,
    "buyer_population_2024": 60041.996
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 1921356401.227728,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 1545981289.3631067,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -19.536984997929597,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 1618122163.512852,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.666348463988523,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 2133446367.7954018,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 31.8470518421063,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.551866817941729
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 2973415402.9578123,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 39.371462430077074,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.360879408479285
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 3366323936.1356874,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.214047818109375,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 27.658048040522054
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 4091149761.213471,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 21.531671901719427,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.2380279957662
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 4754564729.957201,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.215856359825743,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.936940213459106
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 4565260010.637681,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.981536272432329,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.688678914275629
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 2738701099.7863193,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -40.00996452765515,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.521817185449912
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 4002971580.9242187,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 46.16314212735888,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.57422003547019
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 4499633641.113932,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.407334155368698,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.4814867672828904
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 4288081587.5687056,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.701539512289143,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.11976134286617
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 3723792022.034433,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -13.1594876172638,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.3810114714384323
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 3468635647.32129,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.852057612329876,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.308901460609396
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 2863439071.075781,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -17.44768369410267,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.593921576452837
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 2367079674.5568304,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -17.334379541467616,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -14.017681218869482
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 2652125929.1541405,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.042106468202295,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.558118637156397
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 2656950786.523047,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.18192414303817017,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.4639445456889453
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 2584603240.887627,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.72295392155516,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.9738623899098426
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 1769013301.94762,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -31.55571137719034,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.626650348743496
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 2445939712.7517943,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 38.26576148742933,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.7206307426004273
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 2563575712.89079,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.809439886261546,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.27192841162909653
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 2588832520.370302,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.9852179263717398,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.533567757633481
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 2190677245.735025,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.379723157152158,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.6072842202104383
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "870333",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity exceeding 2500cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 375044230.91760457,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 2.3914123261693043,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.328958047059478,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "870422",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), for transport of goods, (of a g.v.w. exceeding 5 tonnes but not exceeding 20 tonnes), nes in item no 8704.1",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 175955723.53054446,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 57.57449238534218,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.3944926583200794,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "870210",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: public transport type (carries 10 or more passengers), compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 153676971.33525318,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 41.751190372115374,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6888585333877676,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "870840",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: parts, gear boxes",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 721602492.468056,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 38.08342337510788,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.28077813467598867,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "870421",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), for transport of goods, (of a gvw not exceeding 5 tonnes), n.e.c. in item no 8704.1",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 408487686.94490767,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 36.24821453183611,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.40640596243091687,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "870323",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 3000cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 570404881.2547687,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 87.55891836960743,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.47200356586806846,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "842952",
      "hs_description": "Mechanical shovels, excavators and shovel loaders: with a 360 degree revolving super structure",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 368198443.1497045,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 63.059551767642574,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5061042746910791,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "401180",
      "hs_description": "Rubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on construction, mining or industrial handling vehicles and machines",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 205947089.74183577,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 35.153796356014325,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4385818696053894,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "844399",
      "hs_description": "Printing machinery: parts and accessories, n.e.c. in item no. 8443.91",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 271058052.3521668,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 44.72599840999502,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.49668057604937305,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "870322",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine, cylinder capacity over 1000 but not over 1500cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1511357347.421437,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 84.63127694696469,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9456667408970046,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
    "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
    "distance_km": 13538,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662,
    "importer_population": 60041.996,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 40,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.2,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 4937421.880461999,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 39285.162481125415,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 11.331475398787878,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.331475398787878,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/JPN-ZAF/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/JPN-ZAF/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/JPN-ZAF/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/JPN-ZAF/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/JPN-ZAF/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}