{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:54.016Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Japan exports to China: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Japan to China, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "JPN",
    "country_name": "Japan"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "CHN",
    "country_name": "China"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
    "importer_iso3": "CHN",
    "all_history_lane_count": 2409,
    "current_lane_count": 2296,
    "current_product_count": 2296,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 142337573307.39813,
    "attention_trade_usd": 42108339415.15139,
    "critical_trade_usd": 8692732308.026285,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 32228432924.935375,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 37360781325.32584,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 129836199.16931939,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 52449880383.94038,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 110,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 619,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 598,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1407,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 26,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 987,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.8795854578701228,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 31.355709436562968,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 131.12643601191223,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 6.8812741423275074,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 14.175818447706853,
    "top_product_hs6": "848620",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 9794638626.818449,
    "top_product_description": "Machines and apparatus of a kind used solely or principally for the manufacture of semiconductor devices or of electronic integrated circuits",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "854232",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
    "distance_km": 2098.11083984375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.0011999999405816197,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 30.189875567878786,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 30.189875567878786,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 17734062.645370997,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 12556,
    "buyer_population_latest": 1412359.985,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 5.1812362915018895,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.16286575688667,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.01746865158438471,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 44.900000000000006,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 46.43,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 29.583432144239573,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 6.107124145817141,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "declining_buyer_demand",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 17734062.645370997,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 12556,
    "buyer_population_2024": 1412359.985
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 26367037911.492798,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 26285632266.29971,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.30874019852493717,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 26166055105.07153,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.45491453283962313,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 24847786601.841244,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.03808655120801,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.9587616122240692
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 29155950624.176224,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 17.338220467555622,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.5149141002200457
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 36546250543.23692,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 25.347483998455655,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.781051817134202
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 37356234227.184906,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.2163249906846483,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.55792195633241
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 46883085836.81076,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 25.502708735809797,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.15558429697579
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 66172218373.103035,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 41.143052322608,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.883323786736963
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 84688314226.56863,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 27.9816761606285,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 31.36715646879191
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 90560818791.79344,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.9342560645545115,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.539767451145124
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 104199216313.9001,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 15.059931771887381,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.34014108192252
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 120654594081.80891,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 15.7922279552823,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.52269491232676
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 136972972185.83807,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.524870916199516,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.788446861225403
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 120079390400.94777,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -12.333514791494737,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.841849568373435
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 162578000255.0377,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 35.39209327444628,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.451759388063596
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 178043143936.24194,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.51244550735273,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.134850613482847
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 161686248393.32413,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.187040388803347,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.425202218864737
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 146521406228.30124,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.379178696837787,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.4068267539548835
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 145344880659.80765,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.8029717969402994,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.540204080073098
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 127581042254.79037,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -12.221853514466108,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.593110053975982
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 131732220792.7715,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.2537581325686737,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.4845192153336813
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 151885044343.37076,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 15.298325215591513,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.4779668911400812
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 165680732802.0648,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.08298016986171,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.10097213331218
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 156263456153.41907,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.683990219850332,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.857541648615827
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 160939741023.22495,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.9925645988622573,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.948951108668151
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 187421147215.4837,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.454236861507866,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.1954756891958045
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 166442384462.09018,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -11.193380824456067,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.125806940533015
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 145640820659.0018,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -12.497756428036666,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.2747324332442984
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 143039141443.21713,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.7863667644912207,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.61418957088025
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "848620",
      "hs_description": "Machines and apparatus of a kind used solely or principally for the manufacture of semiconductor devices or of electronic integrated circuits",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 34193009725.87384,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4910024209811539,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "854231",
      "hs_description": "Electronic integrated circuits: processors and controllers, whether or not combined with memories, converters, logic circuits, amplifiers, clock and timing circuits, or other circuits",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 157957471563.19238,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 20.53806866373329,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6594237874601001,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "854239",
      "hs_description": "Electronic integrated circuits: n.e.c. in heading no. 8542",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 81807010253.73093,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 5.602791776972625,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5746540257892779,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "854232",
      "hs_description": "Electronic integrated circuits: memories",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 80551589606.64478,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 31.560492184563525,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.584832999351759,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "870340",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: with both spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine and electric motor for propulsion, incapable of being charged by plugging to external source of electric power",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 5677605476.879049,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 18.172436867228814,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.701595119206549,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "853224",
      "hs_description": "Electrical capacitors: fixed, ceramic dielectric, multilayer",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 5723035658.036585,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 20.0876890288626,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.805913041702169,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "870323",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 3000cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 23512115502.62832,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 59.52324153482893,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7437059537998884,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "740311",
      "hs_description": "Copper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodes",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 30258390892.677795,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.704276539100987,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "740400",
      "hs_description": "Copper: waste and scrap",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 15611318956.075687,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8235165475917943,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "330499",
      "hs_description": "Cosmetic and toilet preparations: n.e.c. in heading no. 3304, for the care of the skin (excluding medicaments, including sunscreen or sun tan preparations)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 9746215934.22552,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 51.606262214538305,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5493614621542295,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "JPN",
    "importer_iso3": "CHN",
    "distance_km": 1763,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 17734062.645370997,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 12556.33325336033,
    "importer_population": 1412359.985,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 8.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1.1,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 4937421.880461999,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 39285.162481125415,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 30.189875567878786,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 30.189875567878786,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/JPN-CHN/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/JPN-CHN/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/JPN-CHN/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/JPN-CHN/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/JPN-CHN/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}