{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:12.841Z", "seo": { "title": "Italy exports to Ukraine: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Italy to Ukraine, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "ITA", "country_name": "Italy" }, "importer": { "iso3": "UKR", "country_name": "Ukraine" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "all_history_lane_count": 745, "current_lane_count": 712, "current_product_count": 712, "first_observed_last_year": 1997, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 2148686157.2007747, "attention_trade_usd": 748228226.6844071, "critical_trade_usd": 17302017.78572105, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 1050544980.35278, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 488801248.4733547, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 698938534.2972475, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 1, "high_attention_lane_count": 96, "high_volatility_lane_count": 337, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 322, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 251, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.1631409923896316, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 21.446098135953342, "product_concentration_hhi": 138.91869175338752, "top1_product_share_pct": 8.249377204569377, "top3_product_share_pct": 15.588906120778798, "top_product_hs6": "240391", "top_product_trade_usd": 177253226.04985845, "top_product_description": "Tobacco: homogenised or reconstituted", "top_attention_product_hs6": "240391", "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "distance_km": 1674.7734375, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 6.231121903662835, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.74256830099617, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 2.1915571543268197, "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.5510111466693495, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 6.5, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 200085.537744, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 4567, "buyer_population_latest": 43814.583, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 4.388047577338883, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 8.285640541163119, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -3.37794288946095, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.714000000000002, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 10.852, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 34.822592595801424, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0.8052370853573817, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 200085.537744, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 4567, "buyer_population_2024": 43814.583 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 359194641.0580607, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 371678908.47599244, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.4756274150297806, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 434062053.29901606, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.784149813293237, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 456224014.04989547, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.105712554792841, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.296918060418989 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 334692837.8881894, "yoy_growth_pct": -26.638487326187676, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.4335719575571244 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 398037276.6232236, "yoy_growth_pct": 18.926141095435, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.8467555432554525 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 550561162.6848065, "yoy_growth_pct": 38.31899548593278, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.4655602256516564 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 653358286.2245623, "yoy_growth_pct": 18.671335812803534, "cagr_3y_pct": 24.978409893836396 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 883917259.7029319, "yoy_growth_pct": 35.28829102492248, "cagr_3y_pct": 30.465582013175396 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 1222170254.707582, "yoy_growth_pct": 38.26749520858215, "cagr_3y_pct": 30.449387930544034 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 1401334272.1932514, "yoy_growth_pct": 14.659497463267623, "cagr_3y_pct": 28.96250094406918 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 1908533104.7290478, "yoy_growth_pct": 36.19399329625836, "cagr_3y_pct": 29.24964564605117 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 2411829446.964366, "yoy_growth_pct": 26.37084685553677, "cagr_3y_pct": 25.431022104929735 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 3148103367.3792796, "yoy_growth_pct": 30.52761136744642, "cagr_3y_pct": 30.96917146558129 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 1490455810.3730075, "yoy_growth_pct": -52.655436101077704, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.911273106351146 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 1604854639.9468093, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.6754257843559826, "cagr_3y_pct": -12.69689239218984 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 2252750694.191387, "yoy_growth_pct": 40.37101168651957, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.55527851295186 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 2287828930.0251856, "yoy_growth_pct": 1.5571290655573167, "cagr_3y_pct": 15.354572576319402 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 2347441855.821992, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.6056548640701838, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.514946095406044 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 1605274392.6752849, "yoy_growth_pct": -31.616010479919897, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.680685382458677 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 1020712517.3799307, "yoy_growth_pct": -36.41507507767236, "cagr_3y_pct": -23.588281965859537 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 1328108267.2663908, "yoy_growth_pct": 30.115800938300907, "cagr_3y_pct": -17.292248912239316 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 1634792954.6896067, "yoy_growth_pct": 23.091843864089224, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.6092303038264024 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 2023173348.025161, "yoy_growth_pct": 23.75716094331315, "cagr_3y_pct": 25.615496189895737 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 2049634451.3180232, "yoy_growth_pct": 1.307900942778395, "cagr_3y_pct": 15.561803431985432 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 2043008966.1770055, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.32325203827234805, "cagr_3y_pct": 7.713260370716002 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 2576902313.1771026, "yoy_growth_pct": 26.132697204905007, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.398087537469534 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 1607572501.6523356, "yoy_growth_pct": -37.61608682517985, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.7786691009319675 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 2038099634.5707302, "yoy_growth_pct": 26.781195403372426, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.0801639363828488 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 2583132109.1051702, "yoy_growth_pct": 26.742189895404024, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.0805202217973422 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "240391", "hs_description": "Tobacco: homogenised or reconstituted", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 204268218.20315748, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5270987480737839, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "300490", "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1335635597.7285848, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.214076883547391, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "271019", "hs_description": "", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 5561047625.233143, "current_below_peak_pct": 52.302261080431656, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3752930935651022, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "090121", "hs_description": "Coffee: roasted, not decaffeinated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 157533614.19888562, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9604552709470244, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "930320", "hs_description": "Firearms: sporting, hunting or target-shooting shotguns, including combination shotgun-rifles", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 70337978.45826066, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.3678819928445525, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "220410", "hs_description": "Wine: sparkling", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 61203174.82779598, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3569602347180534, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "220421", "hs_description": "Wine: still, in containers holding 2 litres or less", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 116487214.63515708, "current_below_peak_pct": 3.310680014559775, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1173219967713237, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "870422", "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), for transport of goods, (of a g.v.w. exceeding 5 tonnes but not exceeding 20 tonnes), nes in item no 8704.1", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 277106992.62208843, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.248416915896895, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "190219", "hs_description": "Food preparations: pasta, uncooked (excluding that containing eggs), not stuffed or otherwise prepared", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 38034954.81251587, "current_below_peak_pct": 0.5790242508022488, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1266611781664744, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "330590", "hs_description": "Hair preparations: n.e.s. in heading no. 3305", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 100550101.71474567, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9878039852641677, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "distance_km": 1679, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 2, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 1, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 200085.537744, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 4566.642520459455, "importer_population": 43814.583, "importer_biz_entry_days": 6.5, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.5, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 2099880.198259, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 35551.286193786254, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 6.231121903662835, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.74256830099617, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 2.1915571543268197, "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.5510111466693495 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-UKR/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-UKR/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-UKR/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-UKR/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-UKR/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }