{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:10.043Z", "seo": { "title": "Italy exports to Serbia: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Italy to Serbia, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "ITA", "country_name": "Italy" }, "importer": { "iso3": "SRB", "country_name": "Serbia" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "all_history_lane_count": 691, "current_lane_count": 661, "current_product_count": 661, "first_observed_last_year": 2007, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 2427695716.629761, "attention_trade_usd": 768898835.039301, "critical_trade_usd": 68969025.79965463, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 510715480.2491447, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 325879524.84947854, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 10306538.421984361, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 825961293.0704441, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 4, "high_attention_lane_count": 98, "high_volatility_lane_count": 153, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 202, "declining_demand_lane_count": 2, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 199, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.7583006914606809, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 18.649590925093747, "product_concentration_hhi": 70.31763329084845, "top1_product_share_pct": 4.505942516771498, "top3_product_share_pct": 8.991589042383328, "top_product_hs6": "410712", "top_product_trade_usd": 109390573.4734609, "top_product_description": "Leather: further prepared after tanning or crusting, including parchment-dressed leather, of bovine (including buffalo) or equine animals, without hair on, other than leather of heading 41.14, whole hides and skins, grain splits", "top_attention_product_hs6": "410712", "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "distance_km": null, "shares_land_border": null, "shares_official_language": null, "common_spoken_language_score": null, "has_reported_fta": null, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 3.1489947997777783, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.247825097777777, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.07418081509140739, "tariff_advantage_pp": 6.173644282686369, "buyer_biz_entry_days": null, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": null, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": null, "buyer_population_latest": null, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 10.836286255256834, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 12.018236663180426, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -1.0551410583952703, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": null, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": null, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 31.671960772197664, "critical_trade_share_pct": 2.840925463896299, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "declining_buyer_demand", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": null, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": null, "buyer_population_2024": null }, "history": [ { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 1321878638.3553464, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 1728678900.7426333, "yoy_growth_pct": 30.774403230649018, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 1997544286.3320377, "yoy_growth_pct": 15.553228854352351, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 1591876467.249906, "yoy_growth_pct": -20.30832667179727, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.391253571445854 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 1612995184.8430488, "yoy_growth_pct": 1.326655555730838, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.2823727066680677 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 1950446159.7141666, "yoy_growth_pct": 20.920767652753614, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.7921929154200091 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 1931230993.2794166, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.9851677442645257, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.65346101564106 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 2365968239.662506, "yoy_growth_pct": 22.51088802406096, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.62100154504995 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 2282435467.9281526, "yoy_growth_pct": -3.5305956493426605, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.379187801185181 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 1873292751.0944285, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.925707980919057, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.0101931917562146 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 1989636750.392979, "yoy_growth_pct": 6.210668312818646, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.610947207918537 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 2158248970.187193, "yoy_growth_pct": 8.474522787182682, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.847580041648056 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 2412694827.3721485, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.789458060665092, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.80083962165299 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 2359466092.4493566, "yoy_growth_pct": -2.206194265387784, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.847348210864856 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 2141265318.1254067, "yoy_growth_pct": -9.24788769044933, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.2629971059550651 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 2774715274.5002027, "yoy_growth_pct": 29.58297372178784, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.770418158507783 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 2786959919.613626, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.44129375096437773, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.707465682292412 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 2967836759.240613, "yoy_growth_pct": 6.490112697855488, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.49528678447731 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 3188606695.82685, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.438749314592563, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.743603193929613 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "410712", "hs_description": "Leather: further prepared after tanning or crusting, including parchment-dressed leather, of bovine (including buffalo) or equine animals, without hair on, other than leather of heading 41.14, whole hides and skins, grain splits", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 127426169.87368175, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6316050023532035, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "392690", "hs_description": "Plastics: other articles n.e.s. in chapter 39", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 287990777.0682674, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6368619644414483, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "240391", "hs_description": "Tobacco: homogenised or reconstituted", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 60979833.03117263, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.04735862838766, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "271019", "hs_description": "", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 780795065.3324084, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4564095783270181, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "300490", "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1220626620.0232828, "current_below_peak_pct": 38.641798857566016, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.613539236733791, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "740200", "hs_description": "Copper: unrefined, copper anodes for electrolytic refining", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 139812420.91995633, "current_below_peak_pct": 61.96196939986436, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0813491335472543, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "690721", "hs_description": "Ceramic tiles: flags and paving, hearth or wall tiles other than those of subheadings 6907.30 and 6907.40, of a water absorption coefficient by weight not over 0.5%", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 79581941.6982875, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.3358473153741264, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "400510", "hs_description": "Rubber: unvulcanised, compounded with carbon black or silica, in primary forms or in plates, sheets or strip", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 83105641.10765265, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0138402386293999, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "210690", "hs_description": "Food preparations: n.e.s. in item no. 2106.10", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 255773461.20500118, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6095926814625021, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "090121", "hs_description": "Coffee: roasted, not decaffeinated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 53625369.28884471, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5378489761153801, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "distance_km": 724, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": null, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": 2, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 0, "exporter_is_eu": 1, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 63068.134601000005, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 9214.993546391494, "importer_population": 6844.078, "importer_biz_entry_days": 7, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 2.3, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 2099880.198259, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 35551.286193786254, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 3.1489947997777783, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.247825097777777, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.07418081509140739, "tariff_advantage_pp": 6.173644282686369 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-SRB/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-SRB/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-SRB/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-SRB/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-SRB/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }