{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:10.020Z", "seo": { "title": "Italy exports to Nigeria: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Italy to Nigeria, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "ITA", "country_name": "Italy" }, "importer": { "iso3": "NGA", "country_name": "Nigeria" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "all_history_lane_count": 362, "current_lane_count": 315, "current_product_count": 315, "first_observed_last_year": 1996, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 490825806.77184576, "attention_trade_usd": 398611610.6883465, "critical_trade_usd": 179819519.0228556, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 298153071.984414, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 348612184.4567153, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 217983692.6843101, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 490825806.77184576, "critical_lane_count": 7, "high_attention_lane_count": 66, "high_volatility_lane_count": 189, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 250, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 228, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.2521748861030684, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 58.89090005317676, "product_concentration_hhi": 380.1894418879529, "top1_product_share_pct": 15.13116519359164, "top3_product_share_pct": 25.96206572872248, "top_product_hs6": "271012", "top_product_trade_usd": 74267663.63542688, "top_product_description": "", "top_attention_product_hs6": "271012", "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "distance_km": 4043.532958984375, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.15369999408721924, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 27.203475916565655, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 27.203475916565655, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 7.2, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 440776.971536, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 2085, "buyer_population_latest": 211400.711, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -17.702539793973116, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -19.412873862302447, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 2.1223415578896843, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 26.304000000000002, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 20.386000000000003, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted", "attention_trade_share_pct": 81.21243936010808, "critical_trade_share_pct": 36.63611744572397, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "buyer_macro_weakness" ], "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 440776.971536, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 2085, "buyer_population_2024": 211400.711 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 174242594.6314305, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 248501790.93558082, "yoy_growth_pct": 42.61827968139953, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 330195518.47654575, "yoy_growth_pct": 32.87450252708337, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 300812258.2426913, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.898745921635399, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.962930638389096 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 277197710.6355639, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.850261071500442, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.7098577810390942 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 388532132.0225293, "yoy_growth_pct": 40.16426439154055, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.5727713548108015 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 426398637.0455774, "yoy_growth_pct": 9.746042065023431, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.332845281778715 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 460213203.08556324, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.930270667439165, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.410390028194467 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 712947222.820789, "yoy_growth_pct": 54.91672512668813, "cagr_3y_pct": 22.426888921658517 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 660690741.0242729, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.329642380786938, "cagr_3y_pct": 15.716193116316024 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 609830628.0614334, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.698021147381406, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.837351650640569 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 939932295.0192964, "yoy_growth_pct": 54.13005706309146, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.651117817345089 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 1067898272.7776724, "yoy_growth_pct": 13.614382486533128, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.357420306337822 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 1059129533.7722831, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.8211211899969872, "cagr_3y_pct": 20.202439569914056 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 1092417230.3989656, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.142929695116914, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.1390358056697005 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 1457903335.5896208, "yoy_growth_pct": 33.45664046851171, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.934410996792954 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 1268783373.2697089, "yoy_growth_pct": -12.972050869437513, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.20528616055771 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 1005422530.6775826, "yoy_growth_pct": -20.756958842661543, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.728258671728101 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 964903160.3650969, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.030083778327365, "cagr_3y_pct": -12.853155488465362 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 1206407500.835899, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.028868221285805, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.6663446827910655 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 799660378.574575, "yoy_growth_pct": -33.71556642175185, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.348528402219257 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 531241507.0552104, "yoy_growth_pct": -33.566608864357065, "cagr_3y_pct": -18.0398476391338 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 601017467.9522283, "yoy_growth_pct": 13.13450849949611, "cagr_3y_pct": -20.725954442912464 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 815120364.7386231, "yoy_growth_pct": 35.62340667333361, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.6403306865026881 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 780979078.3689562, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.188496306384726, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.705760321488292 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 910392880.567978, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.570713068178144, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.845483224414146 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 1104687112.2924697, "yoy_growth_pct": 21.341800432718117, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.663868519211995 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 823629760.7980697, "yoy_growth_pct": -25.442258569591157, "cagr_3y_pct": 1.7882256076414027 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 1181316745.6963832, "yoy_growth_pct": 43.42812777330032, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.071805574993519 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 632473289.2090435, "yoy_growth_pct": -46.46031290818602, "cagr_3y_pct": -16.963767955188924 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "271012", "hs_description": "", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10124677008.770359, "current_below_peak_pct": 75.71008386099582, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.654462899189553, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "841199", "hs_description": "Turbines: parts of gas turbines (excluding turbo-jets and turbo-propellers)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 72232697.9900084, "current_below_peak_pct": 87.54411575076104, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2424836091010356, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "880330", "hs_description": "Aircraft and spacecraft: parts of aeroplanes or helicopters n.e.c. in heading no. 8803", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 179861447.8844034, "current_below_peak_pct": 28.13127893656701, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3002120078697978, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "271019", "hs_description": "", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 3080432595.447777, "current_below_peak_pct": 86.0641278906751, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8973145066861813, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "848180", "hs_description": "Taps, cocks, valves and similar appliances: for pipes, boiler shells, tanks, vats or the like, including thermostatically controlled valves", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 195673623.73903394, "current_below_peak_pct": 58.3736821572701, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6369216807661601, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "842240", "hs_description": "Machinery: for packing or wrapping", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 34526613.832323425, "current_below_peak_pct": 56.5179412806893, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8330841918480891, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "841490", "hs_description": "Pumps and compressors: parts, of air or vacuum pumps, air or other gas compressors and fans, ventilating or recycling hoods incorporating a fan", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 56307623.05413146, "current_below_peak_pct": 75.217014136518, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2590077939359132, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "340399", "hs_description": "Lubricating preparations: other than for the treatment of textile and similar materials, not containing petroleum oils or oils obtained from bituminous minerals", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 17639539.950865854, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 3.8953145151465023, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "711319", "hs_description": "Jewellery: of precious metal (excluding silver) whether or not plated or clad with precious metal, and parts thereof", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 161151938.53852522, "current_below_peak_pct": 53.005476300132614, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5890886219320111, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "842290", "hs_description": "Machinery: parts of machinery of heading no. 8422", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 25483878.893049642, "current_below_peak_pct": 25.1482610174683, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6155543078735036, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened", "risk_driver_labels": [ "buyer_macro_weakness" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ITA", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "distance_km": 4028, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 1, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 440776.971536, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2085.030695738767, "importer_population": 211400.711, "importer_biz_entry_days": 7.2, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 26.1, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 2099880.198259, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 35551.286193786254, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 27.203475916565655, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 27.203475916565655, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-NGA/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-NGA/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-NGA/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-NGA/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-NGA/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }