{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:10.025Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Italy exports to Lebanon: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Italy to Lebanon, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "ITA",
    "country_name": "Italy"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "LBN",
    "country_name": "Lebanon"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
    "importer_iso3": "LBN",
    "all_history_lane_count": 154,
    "current_lane_count": 136,
    "current_product_count": 136,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2001,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 568448880.499059,
    "attention_trade_usd": 251618518.82541087,
    "critical_trade_usd": 138156250.84390905,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 25005648.13742556,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 229606087.284881,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 210988379.5550189,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 568448880.499059,
    "critical_lane_count": 2,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 34,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 35,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 84,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 66,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.730056619431643,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 52.40921519994849,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 2059.9899221193577,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 40.238404993177674,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 64.54248150444064,
    "top_product_hs6": "271019",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 228734762.71439594,
    "top_product_description": "",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "271012",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
    "distance_km": 2199.887451171875,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.17471890151500702,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 8.562374686767676,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 9.063669905454544,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 3.7843913798101037,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 5.279278525644441,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 15,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 18076.62484,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 2670,
    "buyer_population_latest": 6769.151,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -17.20448672321533,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -17.144054688959663,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.03920581721326144,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 23.9,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": -1.5939999999999999,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 44.264053894258204,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 24.304076511262963,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Critical attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 18076.62484,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 2670,
    "buyer_population_2024": 6769.151
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 886788596.5449775,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 975183324.907643,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.967959523505442,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 916166330.8259013,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.051887124642031,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 768666098.723244,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -16.099721976214674,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.653254031358623
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 663515736.4872752,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -13.67958888919697,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.046123183408074
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 655634824.036771,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.1877506466126286,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -10.55366262494858
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 669170931.8775455,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.0645803646353045,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.5154483183231235
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 655482800.2435949,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.04553589851022,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.4051937711018194
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 706581033.7907596,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 7.795510962022978,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.5258363995375177
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 927189544.4986144,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 31.22196891194562,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.483472084295965
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 961699955.6498387,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.722044899663546,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.62993682390561
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 841600926.4273152,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -12.488201597282,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.002166851059476
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 1020258246.9942209,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 21.228270425666572,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.2398098815367593
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 1117911340.4608297,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.571409371529649,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.14515250653147
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 1121980080.9284172,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.3639591370376616,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.059190439606724
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 1366063107.044933,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 21.754666617124062,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.218259732688306
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 1835834382.9230483,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 34.388695035789674,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.980087120966193
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 1687217318.4885676,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.095341596002248,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.56763794422946
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 1728800768.8211122,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.4646173244473157,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.1661556869723
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 1598192707.2576566,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -7.554835925513769,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.515719101111326
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 1291930194.310923,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -19.163052838118013,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.513711739359842
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 1328496031.5488832,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.8303260810049524,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.40499905430362
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 1724935857.2815166,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.84125027986928,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.576513872395303
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 1594182010.8659134,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -7.580214989655909,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.258804465414248
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 1313024742.8204165,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -17.636459709690268,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.38970730941263465
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 624064694.6082883,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -52.47121594466082,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -28.744418622110913
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 594992151.2570252,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.6585784458630926,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -28.001334930177457
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 1054795563.5519342,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 77.27890381805771,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.039497749915102
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 1146945514.498075,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.736285412107115,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.4910595062207
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 875730320.5619936,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -23.646737400143223,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.750430752244824
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "271019",
      "hs_description": "",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2381512153.9028864,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 45.5185396614547,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7265645399425532,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "271012",
      "hs_description": "",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1469355862.0083516,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 85.53803000003602,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8513027828585149,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "711319",
      "hs_description": "Jewellery: of precious metal (excluding silver) whether or not plated or clad with precious metal, and parts thereof",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 221970079.63391078,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 71.60835434200709,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6412313643036162,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "300490",
      "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 399902871.2064962,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 52.50617072615734,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6411835905608492,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "210690",
      "hs_description": "Food preparations: n.e.s. in item no. 2106.10",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 92854623.05255453,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.72825961969053,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "190219",
      "hs_description": "Food preparations: pasta, uncooked (excluding that containing eggs), not stuffed or otherwise prepared",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 25450694.497380402,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 17.162523764541387,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.3731357061754151,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "690721",
      "hs_description": "Ceramic tiles: flags and paving, hearth or wall tiles other than those of subheadings 6907.30 and 6907.40, of a water absorption coefficient by weight not over 0.5%",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 44438424.89091009,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 59.02080382680738,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5108050210531212,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "848180",
      "hs_description": "Taps, cocks, valves and similar appliances: for pipes, boiler shells, tanks, vats or the like, including thermostatically controlled valves",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 27201162.148655232,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 37.82070827357309,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.38959346363357344,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "841370",
      "hs_description": "Pumps: centrifugal, n.e.c. in heading no. 8413, for liquids",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14415538.541604003,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 6.671487409122488,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6797060798097544,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "640399",
      "hs_description": "Footwear: n.e.c. in heading no. 6403, (not covering the ankle), outer soles of rubber, plastics or composition leather, uppers of leather",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16611898.25447981,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 47.33218804819457,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4117998962575097,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
    "importer_iso3": "LBN",
    "distance_km": 2200,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 1,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 0,
    "exporter_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 18076.62484,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2670.4419564580553,
    "importer_population": 6769.151,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 15,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 42.3,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 2099880.198259,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 35551.286193786254,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 8.562374686767676,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 9.063669905454544,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 3.7843913798101037,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 5.279278525644441
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-LBN/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-LBN/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-LBN/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-LBN/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-LBN/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}