{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:12.841Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Italy exports to Bulgaria: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Italy to Bulgaria, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "ITA",
    "country_name": "Italy"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "BGR",
    "country_name": "Bulgaria"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
    "importer_iso3": "BGR",
    "all_history_lane_count": 759,
    "current_lane_count": 749,
    "current_product_count": 749,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2014,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 2415636251.4616294,
    "attention_trade_usd": 714447853.9857302,
    "critical_trade_usd": 17410759.451027982,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 1030910558.1686105,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 481010216.0830869,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 652426150.6733983,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 1,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 124,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 340,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 311,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 237,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.1121825897168673,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 23.668445947496195,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 68.10448981939135,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 3.2856340294620217,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 8.919832784294243,
    "top_product_hs6": "740400",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 79368966.70604406,
    "top_product_description": "Copper: waste and scrap",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "890392",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 893.057373046875,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.09376569837331772,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 6.17052980562909,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 12.41663982262626,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 5.434503600384848,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 6.9821362222414125,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 23,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 80271.119426,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 11635,
    "buyer_population_latest": 6899.125,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 10.593931268104285,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 11.189451881330982,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.5355909244541324,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 25.716,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 23.028,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 29.575970039091736,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0.7207525321949135,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 80271.119426,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 11635,
    "buyer_population_2024": 6899.125
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 427489339.96732736,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 359796211.21959764,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.83504485817201,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 365252349.93743646,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.5164525216494695,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 418211844.8923327,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.49942620874789,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.7287067037719752
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 466873929.5741478,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.635749985594757,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.072268536338225
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 538654068.0182915,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 15.374629829859398,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.825344946163565
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 671643822.5781841,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 24.68926950633865,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.106472301059238
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 836516287.2395848,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 24.547603821995743,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.45766452292652
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 1045661259.1224046,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 25.00190074875601,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.746113708595054
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 1323801605.212531,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 26.599469346656512,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 25.379911674242827
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 1533077633.700254,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 15.808715419568053,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.376092558629644
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 1956771624.9299679,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 27.636825553777157,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.22997905360815
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 2438748697.5792646,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 24.631237826056807,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.588025224413677
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 2806942955.708709,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 15.097671133352897,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.336620658963557
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 1745986994.5133657,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -37.79756047544858,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.727934981295189
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 1858522794.0677288,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.445397354504845,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.658750727052489
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 2207416892.4673643,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 18.772656408265775,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.696764415977054
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 2062159747.725343,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.580412845335193,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.704570760467043
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 2498111174.8216243,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 21.140526459075538,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.360744958894653
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 2412387340.3960943,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.431546013225417,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.004032293870118
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 2168160079.352993,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.123882552086394,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.6848719679877
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 2247138728.5045223,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.642657657228776,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.4676880831157386
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 2407473885.1778193,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 7.1350804754275465,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.06793816177459444
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 2805227136.5848794,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.52160191044738,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.966306201625063
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 2781202323.1942544,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.8564302361581011,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.36619600052566
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 2432474615.763373,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -12.538739253977116,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.3449630399634085
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 3020007785.3023534,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 24.1537225396532,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.489650080131245
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 3370227116.3416796,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.59663669556612,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.61268025104409
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 3529579159.598074,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.728228625415842,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.211758569362297
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 3283748473.8259487,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.964872429723856,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.8301826329170554
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "740400",
      "hs_description": "Copper: waste and scrap",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 552206842.7742355,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7475851279050105,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "890392",
      "hs_description": "Motorboats: (other than outboard motorboats), for pleasure or sports, other than inflatable",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 102458097.6510528,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.1083006301675438,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "300490",
      "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1349572571.2349443,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 2.2404396398967994,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9714784931079092,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "090121",
      "hs_description": "Coffee: roasted, not decaffeinated",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 102076892.6337314,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.892117994399805,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "853890",
      "hs_description": "Electrical apparatus: parts suitable for use solely or principally with the apparatus of heading no. 8535, 8536 or 8537",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 319851533.351563,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 8.614503226589974,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9504263864844638,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "870323",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 3000cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 377164952.83376306,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 8.194016681621147,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5967061966332042,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "870332",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 2500cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 436204036.91023123,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 16.127013837418275,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7777354142311137,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "392690",
      "hs_description": "Plastics: other articles n.e.s. in chapter 39",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 257143896.35469627,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 12.307312243704581,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6526707860690881,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "870421",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), for transport of goods, (of a gvw not exceeding 5 tonnes), n.e.c. in item no 8704.1",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 150982249.1801928,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 52.220147699674094,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7950731571441664,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "848180",
      "hs_description": "Taps, cocks, valves and similar appliances: for pipes, boiler shells, tanks, vats or the like, including thermostatically controlled valves",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 165385476.20621198,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 18.88591632760579,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.521211615938968,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "ITA",
    "importer_iso3": "BGR",
    "distance_km": 898,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 2,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 80271.119426,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 11634.971018208831,
    "importer_population": 6899.125,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 23,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 2099880.198259,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 35551.286193786254,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 6.17052980562909,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 12.41663982262626,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 5.434503600384848,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 6.9821362222414125
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-BGR/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-BGR/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-BGR/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-BGR/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ITA-BGR/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}