{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:15.651Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Iran exports to Kenya: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Iran to Kenya, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "IRN",
    "country_name": "Iran"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "KEN",
    "country_name": "Kenya"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
    "importer_iso3": "KEN",
    "all_history_lane_count": 52,
    "current_lane_count": 9,
    "current_product_count": 9,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1997,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 8597913.911835413,
    "attention_trade_usd": 5121900.279365862,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 6671844.074163387,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 5454021.211242585,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 2246044.047123926,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 1,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 5,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 6,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 6,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.1380916908026086,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 55.45912639865447,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 4117.561374825528,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 59.571430138598345,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 92.12324373696237,
    "top_product_hs6": "271320",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 5121900.279365862,
    "top_product_description": "Petroleum bitumen: obtained from bituminous minerals",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "271320",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
    "distance_km": 4383.1826171875,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 27.705803971515152,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 27.705803971515152,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 23,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 110347.079517,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 2007.0000000000002,
    "buyer_population_latest": 54985.703,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.6939927181435905,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 1.6964619039059992,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.9642087608958247,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.871999999999996,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 6.416000000000001,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 59.571430138598345,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 110347.079517,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 2007.0000000000002,
    "buyer_population_2024": 54985.703
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 11731437.129706766,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 11140077.538803156,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.040811150120284,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 14573208.879731249,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 30.817840620676094,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 9680700.49385483,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -33.57193618957203,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.203811921607027
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 20588377.441794045,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 112.67445940366869,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.71885727580285
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 3756314.386153134,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -81.75517037817714,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -36.35920718924483
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 8926975.86904925,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 137.65252189637468,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.665711417163885
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 2831260.195710621,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -68.28421811324826,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -48.38381678363346
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 34972188.06120665,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1135.216322194257,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 110.37152596521884
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 13800190.957413085,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -60.53952662824342,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.62726284102025
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 6734515.490509075,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -51.19983838418209,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 33.4879891578647
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 9011402.32327912,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.80921516891382,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -36.365907023032285
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 41345650.783388674,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 358.8148359171648,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 44.16115242877123
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 88060683.09333162,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 112.98656914286984,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 135.59092893368722
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 68368604.30988795,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -22.361941892470803,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 96.49648148292198
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 44654965.84199067,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -34.68498254025004,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.5998304567745434
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 77049305.78811204,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 72.54364511384266,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.355009865623661
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 86146358.83959465,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.806794309736901,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.009031171217295
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 25862561.4087194,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -69.97834643612072,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -16.64456457846526
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 84107643.76874849,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 225.21003020370642,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.964831276525093
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 48500587.073278934,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -42.33510190033396,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.42726115102
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 65500241.3646607,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 35.05040931916392,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 36.30876673210002
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 134646356.9601403,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 105.56619968851892,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.982180889858146
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 96332071.38111062,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -28.455493668032872,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 25.70174339609972
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 35825893.79907164,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -62.81000368264,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -18.21919560799844
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 197535564.91311562,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 451.37651560345546,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.627529352594813
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 52861658.04611279,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -73.23942244559174,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -18.130282076610627
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 48277926.6853529,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.671183481913047,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.45461313951186
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 11199476.259654408,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -76.80207699753554,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -61.583528625547956
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 15623636.102423817,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 39.50327444067396,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -33.38882242186485
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "271320",
      "hs_description": "Petroleum bitumen: obtained from bituminous minerals",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16201358.373219598,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 86.26657658014017,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2015884864314466,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "190219",
      "hs_description": "Food preparations: pasta, uncooked (excluding that containing eggs), not stuffed or otherwise prepared",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 17026603.63257553,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.667410762601805,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "310210",
      "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solution",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 26735241.688228015,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5751359068520359,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "690722",
      "hs_description": "Ceramic tiles: flags and paving, hearth or wall tiles other than those of subheadings 6907.30 and 6907.40, of a water absorption coefficient by weight over 0.5% but not over 10%",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 28623681.32474914,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 35.03876286236075,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3180264516369269,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "271290",
      "hs_description": "Paraffin wax: containing by weight 0.75% or more of oil, obtained by synthesis or by other processes, whether or not coloured",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10050960.812359633,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 82.00560774142153,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6692886277418278,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "700529",
      "hs_description": "Glass: float glass and surface ground or polished glass, in sheets, non-wired, (other than coloured throughout the mass (body tinted), opacified, flashed or merely surface ground)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13669947.238627385,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 59.0428541770471,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7666408487445917,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "340211",
      "hs_description": "Organic surface-active agents: anionic (other than soap), whether or not put up for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 18831518.84813212,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 55.16076068830353,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6862929271642352,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "300420",
      "hs_description": "Medicaments: containing antibiotics (other than penicillins, streptomycins or their derivatives), for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 40786433.46061905,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 78.09885921262271,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1211432519249716,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "690721",
      "hs_description": "Ceramic tiles: flags and paving, hearth or wall tiles other than those of subheadings 6907.30 and 6907.40, of a water absorption coefficient by weight not over 0.5%",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 26057258.808379743,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 73.74723965083606,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6809119343876566,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "IRN",
    "importer_iso3": "KEN",
    "distance_km": 4366,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 0,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 110347.079517,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2006.832203582084,
    "importer_population": 54985.703,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 23,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 22.4,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 231547.57124,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2723.167585538084,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 27.705803971515152,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 27.705803971515152,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IRN-KEN/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IRN-KEN/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IRN-KEN/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IRN-KEN/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IRN-KEN/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}